More Post-Fed Clue to Follow
It seems like the Markets continued to digest and react to the Feds Rate Cut chatter, and Thursday gave us the opposite reaction to what we saw on Wednesday, so let’s take a look and then we’ll see what happens on Friday.
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SPX – We saw the General Markets sell off after the Fed Speech, but on Thursday they reversed higher and many of the stocks in the recent reports moved higher too. The Bullishness of the General Markets remains with us.
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PAGS – I had PAGS in the report and it reversed off of the support of the 20 ema yesterday.
AMD dropped to the 20 ema again too, but moved higher yesterday.
SNAP landed on the support area of the 50sma, and then in after hrs they released earnings and shot up 8% and then continued higher to up 14% later in the night.
GCT is one that I’ve mentioned often and it opened up and continued to climb all day too, closing up 11%.
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So the General Markets do continue to act bullishly, even though they sold off with the Fed Speech.
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WTIC has been very choppy and yesterday it dropped after crawling along the 200sma. Oil has been choppy and is now on day 33, so I wouldn’t really think that it will rally from here, this is likely the start of the drop into the dcl.
The USD dropped and may also be dropping into its’ next dcl. This caused Gold, Silver, and the Miners to pop.
GOLD should be on day 11 and it has made a ‘peak’ for this daily cycle yesterday. If this is the 4th daily cycle, it really shouldn’t be able to make a lot of progress and shouldn’t be able to get above that blue line. I WANT TO SHOW YOU SOMETHING ELSE…
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I WANT TO SHOW YOU SOMETHING ELSE THAT I DID MENTION BEFORE, BUT IT DIDN’T SEEM LIKELY…
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GOLD – What if Gold had a very short first daily cycle and a very long second one? It could be possible, but that 2nd daily peaked early whether we look at it this way or not with that surge to new highs. The only difference that this would make is that the blue line is not the peak of the last daily cycle, so price could move above that as the USD drops.
SILVER actually dropped and reversed at the trend line break out. The MACD looks bullish, but we do have both the 50 & 200 sma overhead and that should act as resistance.
GDX pushed higher and I have been saying that I expect GDX to run up to the 50sma, and I might short it since I would then expect a drop into the next dcl and eventually an ICL. Something odd happened Post Fed. Volume picked up and some Miners actually started to look really bullish, so the Rate Cut talk actually looks like it strengthened this sector…
Take a look at HMY for example: THAT is a bullish move to new highs! It had been very choppy and I sold mine a while ago near the highs, but this is a surprising move so late in time and it could be due to the Fed Rate Cut talk.
KGC reversed higher after the Fed and is now looking like it wants to try to get back above the 50sma? KGC has been chopping and selling off for a month now, but suddenly looks like a MACD cross may take place.
Do you remember when IAG Popped and I pointed it out here on Dec 19th? THis looked very bullish and ready to break out and run, so did it?
IAG did not breakout and run after Dec 19, it turned choppy and Popped a couple of times in January too, but it has remained choppy. It also Popped over 8% yesterday, so maybe this sideways chop is all that we will see until after a dcl, but HMY did break to new highs.
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So after some of the Miners (& General Markets) started to sell off on Wednesday after the fed Mtg, they suddenly showed a sign of strength on Thursday. To be honest, it was unexpected to see that with the Precious Metals, and now I want to keep my eye on the Miners Friday and see what kind of follow through does or does not take place. The General markets remain bullish and some of the Biotech stocks continue to run too. Oil remains choppy and the USD may dip lower into the dcl next. Enjoy your Friday trading!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN is on day 10, which is early in a move out of a dcl, and it can move higher, so some of the Crypto-related stocks moved out of the recent lows and are hanging on sideways under or at the 50sma ( see MARA, WULF as an example).
MARA: It is very hard to know if that was a complete A-B-C drop(?), or is MARA struggling at the 50sma and then going to drop into a 5 wave drop? If Bitcoin takes off higher, MARA and the others will likely just move higher from here too, and if Bitcoin rolls over one more time, these will too. It is risky, so I’d play it small if you buy positions in this current set up.
Many of the smaller Biotech stocks are bullish set ups, so I pointed out RPTX as one that is crawling along the top of the 50sma. This can break higher and is an easy buy with a tight stop. I do NOT know when they release earnings though.
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