Tuesday January 29th – Stock Picks
SPX – After a sideways consolidation that brought us into the dcl and then over to day 7, we have a breakout and a new all-time high on day 15. There is nothing bearish about the General Markets at this point. Tomorrow is the FOMC Mtg, but these markets can still push higher…
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THE NASDAQ has not quite reached the all-time highs yet, but it is moving right along too. When we formed the dcl, I mentioned several tech companies like AMD, AMZN, GRPN, FUBO, GOOG, NVDA, MU, etc, but I still see MANY other tech stocks that have bullish set ups too, so I am going to point several out at the end of the report.
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SOXX – The semiconductors are on day 16 of the 2nd daily cycle. In the first daily cycle you can see a dip about 1/2 way through that run (day 23), and then it ran strong again. We just had a dip into day 16, and that may just be a 1/2 cycle dip here too. Yesterday we got a reversal at the 10sma.
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WTIC DAY 30 – Oil broke out above the 200sma and then gave it up yesterday. Oil has been a bit choppy, but it did start to make progress recently. Oil daily cycles can be 40-50 days long, so this can continue to chop higher -or- start a drop into that dcl.
THE USD continues to chop sideways and higher out of what should be an ICL, Similar to July.
GOLD is also choppy and has been chopping sideways. I am thinking that we started the 4th daily cycle and that Gold peaked in the 2nd daily cycle. Gold can have 4 or 5 daily cycles in one intermediate cycle. Gold is now losing the 50sma and a 4th daily cycle becomes heavy and weaker than the others.
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SILVER has actually made a nice move out of the lows after becoming very weak from December into January. In December you see that Silver ran up sharply and then just rolled over, and I pretty much expect the same thing to happen here. I WANT TO SHOW YOU SOMETHING INTERESTING ABOUT SILVER STOCKS…
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I WANT TO SHOW YOU SOMETHING INTERESTING ABOUT SILVER STOCKS…
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AG – I looked at several Silver stocks and yes, they DID have very strong runs out of the 2020 lows. AG was up about 500% that year, but ever since then they have been having smaller and smaller runs, which has started to form bullish wedges. When and if Gold does break to all-time highs, Silver stocks may be ready to break the downtrend and put in some excellent gains again.
HL ran from roughly $1 to $9, and even recently it ran from $3.50 to $7, but it too is forming lower highs over and over, and this gives us a possible bullish wedge once the downtrend is broken. HL may return to $3.50 at the next ICL and it may be worth buying, but this chop and weakness explains Silver stocks recent weakness on the bounces. They need to break the downtrend.
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CDE ran up 8% yesterday and actually had a pretty good run in November too. If you are looking forward to buying Miners, including Silver stocks, this may be the one to watch after the next low is put in place for some good gains.
GDX seems to have put in a dcl 6 days ago too, but I just don’t expect a lot of upside from here. I had mentioned in recent reports that maybe a run up the 50 & 200sma, and I may buy JDST there.
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I wanted to share several bullish set ups for the General Markets below Bitcoin, as long as you know that the FOMC Mtg is tomorrow and there could be a touch of volatility around that time. Enjoy your Tuesday trading!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN – I discussed this as a count that is either a day 59 dcl, or the lower lows may have extended the dcl to day 70.
BITCOIN – Then I said that if we see a bounce like this, it may only be the ‘B’ part of an ‘A-B-C’ drop. Bitcoin/Crypto stocks could also bounce a-b-c. Well, we are seeing that bounce now, but one thing is currently bothering me here…
BITCOIN is now breaking back inside of that channel. This DOES seem to indicate that we have a later dcl at day 70. This can still bounce up into the channel and then roll over into the next day 60 low, but what looked very bullish to me was…
THE WEEKLY CHART, so I wrote:
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BITCOIN WEEKLY – THIS looks like a bullish weekly reversal to me. You know that I have been comparing the 2020 run week after week and now it looks to be at the point of the weekly reversal there too (Orange arrow). This looks like Bitcoin is ready to make another run higher out of that dcl, and if so? Crypto related stocks will follow, and they did start their bounce last week too.
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BITCOIN – There is no way to know for sure how this move out of the lows will unfold.
1. It can rally and roll over into an ICL. (I was expecting that scenario).
2. It can rally and take off higher after initially dropping into a dcl with the ETF approval, or…
3. It can chop higher and then sideways and then just put in a milder ICL in the 30,000 area by the next day 60 mark ( I expected that originally too).
THIS IS A VISUAL OF THAT POSSIBILITY: It may even form some kind of a double top and then roll over. The reason I highlight this possibility is that we should be due for an ICL, but it is possible that we just move higher, because that is what happened in 2020 with the halving year run.
The Crypto stocks have begun to move higher out of their dcl (lows) too, but there is no real ‘safe’ way to play them. Why not? These are always volatile and have days when they can pull back 10-15%, so if you wanted to play that area, you can just buy and hold a small position and add if this turns bullish? I also pointed out a possible 5 waves down move well before the bounce even started, so
1. Was it an A-B-C and it is done or complete?
2. Was this a 5 wave drop still in progress? We cannot know until Bitcoin plays out.
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I want to show you the bullish set ups in tech companies like SNAP, CVNA, SQ, TWLO, AFRM, GRPN, etc
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SNAP – At first glance we see a box-like consolidation after some strong gains. This is bullish but after a strong run from $8 to $18, is it really possible for it to make more gains? Yes, let me show you why…
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SNAP Big Picture– Believe it or not, that first move was just a breakout from a large base and former highs were much higher. Snap used to trade up near $100.
SQ has reversed at the 200sma, and I showed a couple of stocks like this 2 weeks ago, saying that this drop can simply become a cup and handle type formation.
TWLO looks to have formed a triangle and is riding above the 50sma. This is a bullish consolidation after a run from $50 to $77.
I want to show you AFRM in a similar manner that I did with SNAP. Many are actually like this…
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AFRM has chopped its way down to the 50sma after a strong run from $17.5 to $52. That is a BIG run, so can it really continue higher? Take a look at the next chart.
AFRM BIG PICTURE –
AFRM used to be a $180 company before that bear market sell off to $8! It has now based out and begun to push higher out of that base. It seems to be in recovery mode with the bull market run.
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CVNA is one that I traded often last May to July and again more recently (‘buy and hold’ for a few days or even day trade scalp, since it can gain 7-14% in a day). Well recently I bought at the 50sma and I got stopped out because CVNA lost the 50sma, but it has regained it again. This looks like a buy if it continues to make progress.
PAGS is breaking out and in 2020 it ran from $13 to $60, so it was on my watch list and there are more ( GRPN, FUBO, and others mentioned in past reports).
