January 18th – Jobless Claims
DATA todays does move the markets. Not a lot changed yesterday from the reports expectations, so this will likely be more of a review…
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I discussed that after a very strong first daily cycle run, we could POSSIBLY (Maybe) just see choppy consolidation rather than a continuation.
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THE SPX is on day 7 and at this point we dropped and reversed back higher yesterday around the 20 ema. Let me draw what a 2nd daily cycle consolidation here may look like, just so you get the idea visually…
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SPX – This is what I am thinking could happen if we don’t break out and start to run early in this daily cycle. This would make trades of SPXL, SOXL, TQQQ or SOXS, SQQQ, etc very short-term trades ( 1,2 maybe 3 days at most). OR sit on your hands an wait for the 3rd daily cycle to rally out of the consolidation. I DID MENTION THIS THOUGH…
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I DID MENTION THIS THOUGH: Some of Big Names ( GOOG, MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, etc are bullish) and a few of the Semiconductor stocks do look bullish too, so a follow through rally here, instead of a consolidation, is still possible. The next 2 charts are AMD and MU, but NVDA was even more bullish (buy dips?), and other semis may be setting up…
MU looks set up bullishly too, and it could be bought with a stop in this area.
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I wrote this as a heads up in the commenting section:
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BIOTECH – I want to let you know that when the General Markets sold off into the dcl, Biotech (IBB, XBI, LABU) rallied. So at this point they may be finishing up their run and dropping into their dcl. This would mean that LABU is a buy after the dcl is in place, not now when these should be dropping down.
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WTIC – I have been saying “Oil is choppy”, “Oil is choppy” day after day, But now? Oil has chopped into a wedge or triangle, and it is near the apex. That means that Oil may be getting near to the time that it can break out higher. THis should be the next low in that triangle so it can be bought with a stop, but may still chop for a bit.
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Last week on January 12 THE USD had that bull pennant and looked ready to break higher. I warned that this would hurt Gold…
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THE USD broke out from that pennant and is running higher. This is not good for precious metals.
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GOLD has been dropping since day 10 and it was holding up at the 50sma, but it broke down yesterday at what should be day 22. That makes this L.T. and weak.
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SILVER has been weak and started to break down first.
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GDX has now taken the lead to the downside. When it held up at the uptrend line, I decided not to take JDST, but …
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When it held up at the uptrend line, I decided not to take JDST, but if we get a dcl soon and a bounce, I will probably try to short the 4th daily cycle. Especially if it is a strong enough bounce to back test the 50sma.
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So right now the General Markets are bullish, MJ’s, Uranium Stocks, and Shippers also seem to be bullish. NVDA, AMD, MU, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, etc did rally out of the lows and pulled back. They may be bullish trades despite a possible consolidation. Oil may be finally setting up to leave the choppy lows behind, but with the USD pushing higher, it will take time for The Precious Metals Sector to bottom in its next ICL. We have known that for weeks now, the next ICL may not develop until late February or march, depending on whether or not we have 4 or 5 daily cycles. I’ll continue to discuss that big picture in the weekend report.
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~ALEX
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YESTERDAY I MENTIONED WITH BITCOIN –
I sold all of my Crypto stocks for big profits, we have another one of those topping/exhaustion type candles at day 58. It was Buy the Rumor (approval coming) , Sell the News (Approval is here). This could be a bear flag bounce. I think that we will drop lower, maybe to the $30,000 area, and I’ll show you the big picture next…
BITCOIN DAILY– So that potential ‘bear flag’ could break lower and eventually we will see a daily cycles with lower lows chopping down. I think the $30,000 – $35,000 area could offer support.
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I also mentioned this:
BITCOIN WEEKLY– You see the ‘approval’ topping candle on a weekly basis. I have been pointing out similarities to the 2020 run for this whole run, and we did see a sharp quick drop for 3 or 4 weeks then, before the upward push resumed. I can see this dropping to that $30,000-$35,000 area, so until then, I am just taking notes.
