Friday December 22nd
Even though this is the last trading day before a Christmas extended weekend, we actually have quite a bit of Data to be released today. At this point, I think we all know where we are with cycles and expectations, and this Data may or may not affect the markets. Yesterdays Jobs Report did rally the markets in a similar manner that it has over the past several weeks, so our General Markets remain extended.
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So we saw The SPX sell off sharply Wednesday toward the end of the day, but with that data release yesterday it reversed at the 8 ema. I would say that once we see price break the 8 ema, we will drop into our DCL. Use a stop at the 8 ema, and later we want to ‘Buy That Dip’!
NATGAS is in a bottoming process and the Weekly chart is bullish too. I don’t trade it anymore, but it could see a good bounce using UNG or BOIL to trade it.
WTIC – Oil does have a confirmed DCL, and there are several reasons to believe that this is also an ICL. I will discuss that in the weekend report, but these lows can be bought and a break above the downtrend should confirm that the ICL is in place. This is Day 6 of 40+.
The USD sold off after that Data / Jobless Claims Report was released. Today would be day 17 and I am starting to see slight divergence in the MACD, so a dcl may be somewhat close.
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GOLD moved higher on day 6 as the USD dropped, and this is Gold at 6 am ET today. It does appear to be breaking out of a small pennant and if it is, it has a small upside target of roughly $2100. It can go higher, but this measures out to that area.
SILVER is also on day 7 today.
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GDX doesn’t look like it moved as much as Gold & Silver did, but that is likely because it ‘Gapped’ up away from the 8 ema. With that gap it only shows a short candle, but the price distance is really from Wednesdays lows at the 8 ema area. GDX was up almost 2%.
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AG is churning above the 200sma, and many other Miners are near a support level. The set ups look good.
TSRMF – I just wanted to point out this POP that brought in high volume. If we are going to see Gold break out to all time highs and run in 2024, I often look at the smaller stocks and imagine them doubling and trippling, etc. Some run up 10X, so I just wanted you to be able to take a position or add this to your watchlist.
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Today is the Friday before a 3 day holiday weekend. Usually the day before Christmas is only a 1/2 day of trading and the markets close at 1 pm, but I looked up the market schedule and this Friday is actually a full day of trading. That said, I’m actually not going to be around, I am going to be gone for the day and I am thinking that many may be leaving for travel today too, so we could see light volume in the markets. We do have a lot of data, so the markets could react to that, but basically, we have our expectations, and you can simply position yourself in a way that you are comfortable holding through Tuesday. I discuss that further with Bitcoin below. Enjoy your holiday weekend and your time spent with family and friends. Stay safe, I’ll be gone today, but I’ll see you back for trading on Tuesday. I will also try to have our weekend report out hopefully sometime before Christmas.
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~ALEX
Yesterday BITCOIN had moved higher in this consolidation, so I drew a possible continuation of that sideways churning or a breakout. This was a 30 minute chart and it has since tagged that upper line at 44,000 and pulled back slightly. Let’s discuss this briefly.
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Let’s discuss this BITCOIN set up briefly.
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Bitcoin is still climbing up and along an uptrend line. I was expecting the 48,000 area ( or an overshoot to the higher 52,000 target). I like the MACD set up heading into today too. The only bad news is that this could now continue higher to my target on Saturday, Sunday and Monday. If it does, it may reach the target early while our markets are closed, and possibly start to dip back lower. It’s not something to get overly worried about, but once that trend line is broken for Bitcoin, it usually has a tendency to FLUSH lower rather quickly. Tuesday we could see Crypto stocks either very much higher…or selling down. Please know that there is also a chance that this runs to $48,000, then $52,000 next week and our crypto stocks just continue to make gains. It’s never easy! 🙂
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MARA – Notice that ramp up from the midpoint consolidation near $14. This has been an awesome run! It blew right past the former highs and just keeps on going. I sold a chunk at between $23 & $24, but I saw it trading at $26.50 in after hrs. Amazing. So there are laggers compared to MARA…
RIOT -has started a move out of that midpoint consolidation and it may continue higher if Bitcoin runs to $48,00-$52,000.
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BTBT – Another Crypto stock that is not at the former highs yet (kind of lagging). These could take off higher and run next week if Bitcoin remains higher & above the uptrend line.
HUT – Very similar and seems to be a lagging, yet bullish set up. And there are others that have been mentioned in past reports.
LITM ( Lithium)- When I see a stock moving out of the lows like this, I keep it on a watchlist since it may pull back during the next drop into a dcl and back test the 50sma (as a buy point).
