Thursday December 21st
.
FROM WEDNESDAYS REPORT:
SPX – We are seeing a very strong year-end rally, with a day 36 high. This is very much due for a dip into a dcl, but the year end rally has been relentless.
.
And the markets continued to run higher on Wednesday, but take a look at what happened just before the final hour with this QQQ Intraday Chart. The markets and many sectors just rolled over and that selling escalated right into the close. This selling may continue as we seek out the dcl, but…
.
The DATA on Thursday has moved markets, and lately it has often sent them higher. Now we’ll see if there is a change, since the selling came in fast on Wednesday and we are quite due for a DCL drop.
.
So here you can see that a new high came in on day 37 of The SPX DAILY, but that was then followed by a sharp 1 hour sell off into the close. I have drawn it here as the start of a drop into a dcl, however it may not just plunge as drawn. In fact, could it possibly hold up a little longer from here?…
..
SPX DAILY – If that Data / Jobless Claims Report triggers a rally again Thursday and Friday, we could bounce this week and also dip & bounce next week, before it starts to drop into the dcl.
.
SPX: Even a drop this week from the Data as drawn, followed by a Santa Clause Rally next week is possible. That could be a bounce next week and then the dcl drop in January.
..
By the way, will someone remind me to buy TSLA after the next dcl? This really looks like it could break out and run.
WTIC DAILY – Oil is still struggling at the downtrend line. I think that this is day 5 and it could break out if we have an ICL in place.
.
USD DAILY – The USD is churning sideways, and it may actually be forming a bear flag. A drop from here could boost Gold and Gold is only on day 5. We’ll see.
.
GOLD – This is a bullish chart for several reasons and it is really just day 5 out of the dcl for Gold.
.
SILVER– The chart of Silver remains bullish and is also on day 5 out of the dcl. These are still holding above the 8 ema and that is a good sign. We’ll see what happens (if anything) after the Data is released this morning.
.
GDX INTRADAY 5 minute chart– The selling picked up before that final hour in the GDX too, and just continued to sell down into the close.
.
GDX DAILY – So the Miners had that that nice Pop on Tuesday, but the sell off took it back on Wednesday.
.
To be honest, rapid selling just seemed to come out of nowhere as we approached the final hour of trading, and it hit many sectors that just kept on selling into the close. We know that we are due for a dip into the dcl in the General Markets, so we’ll just have to see what happens at 8:30 a.m. ET, when the Jobless Claims Report, GDP, and Philli Fed data is released. If the futures start to rally, we could see that ‘Santa Clause’ or ‘Year End Rally’ kick into gear again. If we see selling at the release of that data, the dcl is more than due and that may be where we are heading too. Gold and Silver dipped slightly at the end of the day, while the Miners got caught up in the selling, so I’m watching the GDX too. So let’s see what happens at the 8:30 a.m. reports. Enjoy your Thursday trading!
.
~ALEX
.
BITCOIN DAILY – Yesterday I showed this bullish set up developing.
.
BITCOIN DAILY – Wednesday was day 36 and day 27 still looks like the 1/2 cycle low. Now it also has formed a double bottom low with day 27 and day 34. Bitcoin reversed higher on day 34 and was now heading up toward the top of that consolidation, so I posted this in the morning. The MACD was improving too…
.
As the day continued on, BITCOIN did make that run toward the top of the consolidation – The MACD cntinues to improve too. From here it could
1. Break out and run to the $48,000 area
2. Chop sideways and continue with the consolidation. (My next chart will show this)
3. Drop back down toward the lows and continue to lower trend line pattern.
.
BITCOIN This is the choice #2 from the above 3 possibilities. I mentioned this because this is what Bitcoin did with the last consolidation. After the 2 green arrow lows were in place, it ran to the highs, but it couldn’t break out right away. It churned sideways for a week.
MARA DAILY – This has been an amazing run, so I posted in the comments that I was selling a large chunk just to lock in the gains. I sold some other extended ones too. Why? My money is more than doubled, so I can just take some and let some ride. If Bitcoin breaks out right now, I’ll just deploy that money in a lagger, if it doesn’t break out and MARA pulls back, I can re-add it to MARA and get more shares (Say it falls to the $18-$20 zone).
.
FOR THE WEEKEND – I wrote this to a comment about trying more Crypto Miners and less Precious Metals Miners going forward: I am thinking that we will get another good buying opportunity in early 2024, before the halving ramp up. So in the weekend report I hope to explain that.
