Tuesday December 19th – I Still Like the Set Ups
A NEW HIGH FOR THE SPX ON DAY 35! so we have a strong rally out of the ICL, especially since the Nov Fed Mtg indicated a pause in rate hikes and that was reiterated last week. This is very overbought or extended, but…
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In the weekend report I said:
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SPX DAILY is on day 34 – USUALLY we get a drop lower around now that leads to a dcl. I was thinking about that ‘Santa Rally’ phenomenon and I wondered:
” With 9 trading days left in the year, could this possibly rally right into the year end and then see a dip into a dcl in January?” The answer is that it could. That would get us to day 43, and it cannot be ruled out as a possibility. See the chart.
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CVNA – CARVANA has almost doubled again. When the markets dip into a dcl, keep your eyes on the stronger runners and they become a ‘Buy the dip’ opportunity. CVNA, AMD, AMZN, AI, MU, and so on…
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AI – This doesn’t look like it is moving, but it basically climbed from $23 to $33.50 since October and I think that it could make a nice run anytime now (or after a dcl). I like the alignment of the 50 & 200sma.
WTIC – Oil looks to have put in a low, but it was rejected at the downtrend line again. A breakout is bullish, but this may not be done selling off, based on the way that was rejected.
THE USD really didn’t travel very much on Monday after that inside day Friday.
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GOLD stopped selling off and popped last week after the Fed Wed no rate hike decision. On Monday Gold moved slightly higher after dropping down to and reversing at the 20 sma. This should only be day 3 for Gold and we are looking for a sign of strength sooner than later, since we are also watching to make sure that this doesn’t become L.T. It is oversold and has time to make progress. We’d use a stop under the recent dcl, since a break of that dcl would indicate a failure of this daily cycle.
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SILVER surged on Fed Wednesday and has paused. It has a series of higher lows, is on day 3 of a new daily cycle, and so far remains bullish. It remains oversold, so we’ll see how this plays out over time.
GDX is starting to resemble a round bottom base now. It is showing some strength, because even on down days, it has not been able to dip lower and fill that gap from 3 days ago. It is also only day 3 here, so we need to allow time to show us what it can do.
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Yesterday I pointed out that NAK was breaking out above the 50sma after the recent dcl dip. It is a penny stock, so that makes it riskier, but it does run nicely at times. I do not own it.
Most miners were red or barely up, but IAG was up almost 5% and pushing on the resistance of the 200sma. This could be considered an area to buy the breakout or buy it if it churns & bounces around between the 50 & 200sma.
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The General Markets march onward and upward, the basket of precious metals stalled, but they should have a dcl in place, and the Crypto basket keeps adding strong gains as Bitcoin chops upward. Many were up 10-20% again on Monday. I will cover that a bit below. Enjoy your Tuesday trading!
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~ALEX
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SUNDAY IN THE WEEKEND REPORT I STATED THAT THIS CHOP COULD MAKE A NEW LOW, OR IT COULD CONSOLIDATE AND RUN TO THAT $48,000 AREA: I drew a pennant as a possibility of holding that day 27 low, and I said…
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WE COULD STILL SEE THIS KIND OF A MOVE THAT ALLOWS THE MACD TO CURL UP. We’ll See.
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BITCOIN ACTUALLY DROPPED HEADING INTO THE OPEN – After dropping down to $40,153 and looking like it might make a new low below day 27, Bitcoin flipped higher and Crypto stocks started to rip higher from Red to Green along with it.
USING AN HOURLY CHART FOR BITCOIN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY, we see that double bottom and the ramp up from there. This could be the buying at that 1/2 cycle low that I look for anywhere around day 30. So at this point, so far-so good (and Crypto Stocks were rallying). Bitcoin actually rallied from $4o,153 to $42,394. that is a 2000+ rally…
BITCOIN END OF THE DAY– Now at $42,440, so yesterday we saw Bitcoin drop & rally back over $2,000 and I feel like not many people noticed 🙂 This set up remains bullish…
HUT #1– After 2 hrs of trading, I placed this in the commenting area. HUT has been a lagger compared to others, but look at the volume as it leaves the bottom behind. It has come to life, so I asked in the life commenting area – would it be able to push above that 200sma resistance, like the others did?
We got the answer rather quickly, and HUT was now up 11%.
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HUT and up 15% an hour after that. In after hrs it was up over 20% for the day. Yes, this could rest, pause, dip, etc, but is it finished running yet?
HUT WEEKLY – Just take a look at the weekly chart of Hut. This is a long base and Hut used to be very strong and traded much higher, so even tough it was up 15% on Monday, and even it if pauses or dips back down, it should be on a watchlist to buy.
MARA on Nov 15- We discussed buying and keeping MARA in a basket when it was chopping along under the 200sma. I had many charts in the reports at this time in October and November. BUYING WITH THAT CHOP IS NOT EASY TO DO, but I really felt that BITCOIN was bullish and this could return to that July high up near $20. Crazy??
MARA- Welcome back to $20 everyone! 100+ gains. 🙂 Just 4 days ago this was under $15 so it’s a good lesson on how quickly these move, for future runs in that 2024 halving year.
WULF did not exactly RIP higher today, but this set up is choppy and similar to MARA, dancing around that 200sma, right? I love the volume and I like that it is still above support. If or when this boring chop ends, it could fly just like MARA did, practically straight up.
In prior reports I mentioned that we had laggers, but they looked pretty boring or even bearish. Well they are on the move now. A lagger now might just be one that is off of the lows, but hasn’t put in a run back toward prior highs like MARA did. I had mentioned CAN, HUT, HIVE, SDIG, EBON, ANY, BTBT, CIFR, SOS, etc. as a few laggers. Some are starting to move now. If you can find a way in after they start to prove themselves, it could pay off. Let’s just a review a couple here. CAN, EBON, and SDIG…
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CAN crashed into last week, but reversed very sharply. I am pretty sure that I mentioned it as it reached that 50sma as a buy, and then it just kept going. Now if it pauses at the 200sma, it has proven itself. If it breaks through, it may just keep running, just like IREN did.
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EBON -This is NOT running with Crypto, but I watch it daily. In the past it would put in massive gainer days, but the drops can also be ugly. I would probably only day trade this one.
SDIG broke the 50sma, tagged the 200sma, and fell back to the 200sma. Those were BIG moves. I actually bought SDIG 2 weeks ago and bailed out on it last week with that drop. That was almost a $2 drop on a $6 stock! However, here it is back near $6, so is it ready to break out and run? This ran from $4 to $10 in July, wow! – but it is NOT easy to hold.
BTBT is also a bit of a lagger, only because it didn’t move more than 2% yesterday. I think that it has good potential, and it looks just like MARA a week ago when it was at its 1/2 point consolidation. So look through your list and see what is moving, maybe what is near support, etc. if you want a quick trade or add to your basket.
