Friday December 15th
THE SPX ran higher, but it’s on day 33 and it is coming due for a dip into a dcl. We saw selling and have a doji, so this may be short term peaking. Please read the chart.
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YESTERDAY I DREW THIS AND SAID:
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THE SPX : Take a look at the orange arrow. That was also a strong burst higher after a long run, and that is how a market can surge, and yet then pull back too. So we should eventually see that dip into a dcl, and that is a great buying opportunity coming up!
WTIC –
1. Oil has a swing low,
2. The drop finally reached the June lows,
3. We have divergence in the MACD starting to form, and the timing is due for a dcl,
4. We also broke above the 10sma, so this may be a dcl and an ICL for Oil.
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When Oil bottoms, we often look at the XOP & OIL Stocks. They all popped yesterday, so while these are still near the lows, this may be an area that you want to go long. We often discuss VLO, MRO, NOG, APA, WTI, etc.
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VLO held up nicely during Oils sell off, so if Oil is putting in a longer term low, some of these ought to begin to climb out of their sell off lows.
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NOG fell to the 200sma when Oil sold off, and it can be bought in this area, especially if you see a gap fill.
The USD has failed after the Fed gave us the expectation that rate hikes are done and cuts may be on the way. This should be good for Gold.
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GOLD & SILVER FRIDAY MORNING:
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GOLD at 6 a.m. ET Friday. After the initial surge higher, Gold is slowly making additional gains. I’ll discuss these Post Fed reactions for The USD & Gold further in the weekend report. Gold remains bullish.
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SILVER continues higher this morning too.
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GDX and several Miners gave us a Pop & Drop, but that it not overly concerning. We just saw that 7 day sell off erased in 2 days. Some Miners continued higher, but with Barrick and Newmont Mines popping and dropping, GDX showed the same price action.
AAGFF – This was recommended as a buy for our basket at the 12-13 cent area and again at the green 50sma (13 cents). I then noticed how it also reversed right off of the 200sma this week. It gained 14% on Fed Wednesday and another 10.5% yesterday.
VGZ surged 35% yesterday and (I do not own it). It started to rally out of the lows 2 weeks ago and then sold off with Gold & Silver to a double bottom low. This could pull back and it could be added to your basket of miners.
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CDE did not sell off when silver was being beaten down day after day. If it continues higher for a couple more days, it will tag $4, which is a 100% gainer off of the lows. If this was in your basket of Miners, you are happy 🙂 What if it is not though?…
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You may want to add EXK: I have had EXK in the last few reports and I said…
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EXK is a double bottom at the lows. I actually pointed EXK out as Silver was selling off for 7 days. I questioned why it looked bullish and was NOT selling off with Silver. This is EXK popping 9% higher yesterday, but it is still at the lows and can be bought as a lagger with a stop under yesterdays lows.
Now look at that volume coming in on EXK: I think that this is a bottoming process and that it will do well over time. Could they do the dreaded public offering? I guess that it is possible, I haven’t looked at their cash on hand ( I will do that). So maybe start small and build as it rises past resistance areas?
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I had several Miners in the reports yesterday, and since some were Pop and drop, I will just re-post that part of the report here. They could do ‘gap fills’ and still remain good buying opportunities. The following was in yesterdays report and I’ll update HL:
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AG closed up almost 12%, so even if you bought it up 6%, you still tacked on another 6%. Ag bottomed in November and now has a higher low, it remains a buy and hold now.
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I have discussed Gold Royalty companies like RGLD as finally getting up off of the lows. Here we see bullish reversal after back testing the base. Isn’t it amazing how these patterns form? This was the breakout from a base and a back test. That is an obvious place to add in Technical Analysis.
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MTA is also a royalty and streaming company coming out of the lows. I love the way this based out, broke out and back tested too. This is a nice set up and a buy and hold too. SAND is also another one.
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HL has a double bottom low and it broke out and back tested that area as silver sold off relentlessly. It was up 8% yesterday and is a buy too.
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HL tried to get through the 200sma and it did a bit of a pop and drop. It may just push through there today, but if you see it dip & do a gap fill, you may be able to add as it craws along under the 200sma.
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So we had a Fed Week that really turned out bullish and I’ll discuss that further in the weekend report. I am travelling this weekend, so there is a chance that the weekend report will not be posted until Sunday night. With that I’ll simply say that after that Fed Mtg, things do look very bullish in the General Markets, Precious metals, Crypto, and now even Oil may be turning the corner. Again, I’ll cover these in the weekend report, and with a dcl coming due in the General Markets, that will be a buying opportunity! Enjoy your Friday trading.
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~ALEX
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THIS WAS IN YESTERDAYS REPORT:
BITCOIN – I have been showing the count for Bitcoin and mentioned that I look for dips at 30 & 60 day intervals ROUGHLY. Our day 27 could have been the low and I drew that in a chart- that bitcoin might just move higher from there, and so far it has. Bitcoin had a Fed Pop too.
BITCOIN moved a little higher, but when I look at those indicators at the lows ( MACD and volatility), it looks like we could chop or churn for while. I still had a target of the $48,000 area after we reached $44,000, but that target would need to be tagged in this push higher. We are on day 31.
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I also drew this for the commenting area. CLSK can easily extend if Bitcoin goes to $48,000, but I see 5 waves and it is extended, so I decided to cash mine in for now. These are big gains, even if they are just part of a basket. A 50% pullback would be a bummer. If it pulls back, I’ll find a place to re-enter. If it just keeps going higher, that money will just be deployed in a lagger. A lagger like …
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I could split the money up and add it to a few laggers that I had in the reports lately, like WULF, RIOT, BTBT, etc . Yesterday I pointed out WULF as improving, but still has room to run..
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WULF – I was watching these midday before the Fed and they were acting bullish. I posted this chart from Midday to show a gap fill and a drop & reversal at the 20ema. It is a low risk buy, but these are hard to buy, since they move quickly (even intraday). WULF closed up 17% in after hrs.
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Doesn’t RIOT look like a bullish Bull Flag? That could be the midpoint run too. I do think that these will go MUCH higher in 2024, but for now they are also making excellent gains. At the last halving year of 2020, MARA and RIOT both traded north of $75 and they can go right back up there over time.
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BTBT crashed 2 days ago, but with this reversal it looks ready to try to run again. a drop to the 20 ema seems common in this sector.
CVNA – I have repeatedly mentioned how good CVNA is to trade, and there it goes again. When we get a dip in the markets, this usually falls to a support area and would make a nice buy. I mentioned this recently when it was closer to that $30 base and suddenly it is at $51. CVNA, AI, FUBO, AMD, NVDA, etc could be great buys soon, if these markets ever decide to dip 🙂
