Wednesday November 8th – A Little Choppy Out There
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SPX – The General Markets dipped to red and recovered again, so we are seeing daily selling being bought up and we are seeing reversal candles as it slowly moves higher day by day. This is day 7 of a new daily cycle.
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WTIC – Well, I was expecting Oil to drop to the 200sma, but it sliced right through it. I would not buy this until I see a reversal and maybe even a swing low that breaks above the 10sma. That was a higher volume plunge so there may be more selling ahead.
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The USD is bouncing, but it now had a failed daily cycle ( it broke below the recent dcl). This bounce should be short lived, but it can move a little higher to the 10sma. That is the 20 ema that is showing.
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GOLD dropped to the 20 ema and then started to recover. Can Gold drop lower? Well, it actually hasn’t even pulled back 38.2% and it didnt back test the 50 or 200sma, so it can drop lower, especially if the USD bounces.
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SILVER has been chopping sideways, but on Tuesday it dropped rather sharply, almost 3%. That was a high-volume dip and Silver stocks have been weaker than Gold stocks.
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GDX dropped down below the 50sma, but it started to recover and it was able to close back above that 50sma. It may be forming a trend line and as pointed out in past reports, we seem to have an inverse H&S. Unfortunately, we gave back Fridays surge higher, and that can be a big part of what makes choppy markets frustrating. The markets give and the market take it away in the chop, but longer term the Miners should be moving higher.
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EXK released earnings and gapped down and sold off on heavy volume, but this candle may be the lows. We see that buyers stepped in and this is a reversal candle. I did not buy it, because silver stocks have lagged, but when you see one of these form, it is considered a buy with a stop under the lows.
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KGC – Right at the open KGC gapped down to the 10sma. Would that hold up?
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I then saw it sell down even lower, but I noticed that on the last consolidation price held up at the 20 ema, so I was thinking that this might be the lows of the day. I posted this in the comments as something to watch.
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One hr into trading KGC was bouncing off of that support area, so this could be a place to add to your position and use that low or the 20 ema as a stop on that added portion. In other words, this could be a buy with a stop at roughly the $5.20 area.
AS A NOTE: KGC looked like this midday and it closed here, but they are scheduled to release earnings on Wednesday after the market closes. Several Miners have done well after earnings (NGD, EGO, NEM, etc), so we’ll see how KGC does after the markets close.
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We are seeing the General Markets climb up slowly after selling down each day. Oil dropped to the 200sma area as expected, but it is best to wait for a swing low to form before buying it. The USD is slowly bouncing higher and Gold, Silver, and The Miners are slowly chopping lower. We should have an ICL in place, all of the signs are there, but we have to get through this boring & frustrating choppiness that often comes with this sector. 🙁
I looked up the economic data release for the rest of the week, and today has a few FED Speeches and remarks, so that MIGHT be market moving, we’ll see.
Enjoy your Wednesday trading.
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~ALEX
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I WANT TO DISCUSS A RUNNING CORRECTION AGAIN:
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RUNNING CORRECTIONS – This is where price chops higher in a tight formation and it is often bullish. It can resolve with a blast higher, so I wanted to post an example of one here. Read the chart. Each time it tries to sell off, it closes slightly higher and higher.
RUNNING CORRECTION BREAKOUT – I have seen these many times, and often (not always, but most often) They suddenly surge higher as the Bulls take control, price breaks higher, and all of the shorts have to cover. Why am I showing this?
BITCOIN – I am starting to wonder if Bitcoins chop is slowly becoming a running correction? If it is it could surge higher and then put in a higher dcl when it dips later in the move. I will say that Crypto Miners are still near the lows, and some do have a higher low in place, but it is such a tricky development. They are NOT running strongly higher like one would expect with Bitcoin WELL OFF OF THE LOWS.
MARA – You can see a bullish look starting to develop in MARA, RIOT, HUT, HIVE, CLSK, CIPR, etc, but take another look at Bitcoin above. It is well off of the lows, it has rallied very nicely, while these still grapple with the 50 & 200sma at their bases. I do like these set ups now that they have improved, but it is definitley a tough call, since I was expecting a drop into a dcl next. Let me show you that…
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I was expecting a drop into a dcl next. Cycle counts for Bitcoin dips that I use are 30 & 60 day intervals. The 30 day dip is seen here, and I often view that as a 1/2 cycle low, and then a run takes place with a drop around day 60(roughly). We are at day 58, so I would expect a dip. Again, is this forming a running correction though, since it struggles to sell off? What about Crypto stocks still lingering in their bases? I personally am allowing a little more time to see if Crypto itself reveals why this development is taking place, but I do want to own Crypto stocks in 2024 for the ( ED, here it comes 🙂 – THE HALVING YEAR. 🙂 I WILL…
THE HALVING YEAR. 🙂 I WILL BE DISCUSSING THIS MORE IN FUTURE REPORTS. I have been waiting for a possible dip into the next ICL for Bitcoin to discuss the bullishness of a halving year in detail. So far the Crypto stocks are still basing out in choppy fashion.
