Thursday November 2nd – Post Fed Delight?

Well, following the Fed Decision (no rate hike) and after Powells speech, it was volatile intraday, but it didn’t get as wild as it often does. We had the normal knee jerk reaction, pop & drop kind of action, but in the final hour almost everything went up. The General Markets rallied into the close, Crypto Stocks rallied, Uranium Stocks rallied, and Miners also rallied to close near the highs.  It wasn’t a rip your face off rally, but the miners were red early in the day and they moved from red to green.  Is it time for a Post Fed Thursday with follow through?  It DID look like it by the close, and the set ups now do look bullish, but we also still have the 8:30 Jobless Claims report to get through first. Let’s look at some charts…

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SPX – After the FOMC Meeting we saw the General Markets run higher and close up at the highs of the day. I do see divergence on this last drop and even though we are right at the 200sma resistance area, I think we will break through with no problem and start to confirm that an ICL has been put in place. We had a 5 wave drop.

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The NASDAQ reversed back above the 200sma yesterday after bouncing off of the lower trendline. This is similar to the ICL in March where it briefly loses the 200sma, runs the stops, and recovers as a shakeout. Traders can go long TQQQ, SOXL, SPXL, QQQ, SPY, etc, and also some of the stocks that we have traded in the past should be at the lows too. I have traded GRPN, FUBO, CVNA, AI, AMD, AMZN, AMD, MU, etc. I will put them in future reports if the ICL is in place (I think that it is).

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AMD Does it get much prettier than this? The last time that AMD released earnings it ran from $80 to $130. They just released earnings again and had a strong 10% Pop yesterday. Check your charts, because these are quickly turning bullish. On Tuesday this was a broken down stock, today it is very bullish.

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In the final hour of trading, I saw the TLT start to ramp up and it is starting to look like a bottoming process. Just a little higher and it would be pushing on the 20 ema and that downtrend line, so I posted this in the comments and now…

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TLT – And by the close it was now right at that 20 ema and notice also that volume surged from 50 million in the above chart to 72 million in that final hour. Any higher today and we’ll have the TLT breaking out.

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WTIC – Oil is still playing out as expected and it is due to bottom any day now.  A reversal would be a buy, and you can use UCO, USO, or maybe any of the Oil Stocks.

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GOLD 6 am Thursday – This is Gold as I write the report. We did NOT slam down with the Fed decision or his speech, and THAT makes me think that we just saw a 1/2 cycle low. We had a reversal on Wednesday and today we have a small push higher so far.

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SILVER 6 am Thursday – Silver dropped and recovered too, with a reversal candle. I would love to see this sideways churn burst higher and push Silver through the 200sma. Silver can run swiftly when it gets going and maybe then the Silver stocks would be able to kick it into gear and run away from the lows too.

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GDX – We saw a reversal in the GDX ETF (Miners) Too.

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KGC- This is one of the Miners that I have had in several reports as acting bullishly and really it has hardly pulled back during the recent dip. If I told you that KGC could run from 5 to $10, wouldn’t that be great? Well take a look at the recent run in October and you see that this consolidation is pretty much a bull flag pattern and…

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KGC- That recent run hardly shows up on this big picture chart, but you can see that KGC is running back up toward the 2020 highs at $10. It has been pretty choppy during Golds consolidation period, but if Gold is about to launch to all-time highs, many of these Miners should start trending higher in a nice steady manner.

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GFI- This is another Miner that I have been showing as strong and the recent pullback to the 200sma area did not change that. I zoomed back to show how GFI has been able to run higher in the past out of ICLs. What if Gold runs up to all-time highs and then breaks out? These Miners do have the ability to rocket out of these lows. Look at that run from the March 2023 lows and you’ll see almost 100% gains in 2 months.

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I think that we saw Bullish results in the final hour of trading after the Fed Meeting and now we’ll just have to see if the jobless claims report allows for more follow through. I like the set ups in the General Markets and the Precious Metals, so even if we see a ‘pause’ today, I am bullish for Friday and next week (unless we see a bigger plunge lower after 8:30 am). I think we have a 1/2 cycle low in the Miners.  I am also surprised to say this, but Crypto stocks started to set up as bullish too. I will discuss that below.  Enjoy your Thursday Post Fed Trading!

 

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~ALEX

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HUT – I wrote this at the end of the day in the comments area.

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So that HUT chart shows a higher low and price is holding up at the 50sma. The RSI is quite bullish on that dip, and volumes are increasing on the buy side. Lets look at a few others…

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RIOT looks like a bottoming pattern. Were these just waiting for a General Market ICL?  It is possible, but I have been pointing out that these are at the lows when Bitcoin was at the highs, and it seemed pretty negative.  Now we’ll see if they push higher.

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HIVE is still right at the lows, and so are BTBT, IREN, SDIG, SOS, and others, but look at the volume pattern. Look at the RSI with price at the lows. This looks like it wants to push higher.

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MARA is near the lows, but it also had a very large volume Pop, the RSI is at 50% and the MACD is rising. So far, these are bullish charts indicating a bottom is forming.

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CLSK has higher lows and CIFR is really the best looking one out there. This sector has changed from struggling at the lows to ‘setting up bullishly at the lows’.

 

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NOTE:

YESTERDAY I POSTED THIS CHART OF BITCOIN, and on day 51 I thought we could drop into a day 60 dcl. Now looking at the crypto stocks bullishness, I have to admit that this can run higher for 10 days too, and then dip into a dcl, so…

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This was a comment from Vladimir, and it is a valid comment. I had replied that I was expecting a pullback, due to the crypto stocks being at the lows and not following Bitcoin, but if this breaks higher and runs, Vladimirs comment was a good one. Thanks!