Thursday October 19th – A Market Check Up

The Markets, especially The Precious Metals, do look healthy at this point. I would  but Buckle Up your seat belts however, we may be in for some turbulence today, both pre-market and midday with the data due to be released.

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So far The SPX was rejected at the 50sma and now it lost the 10sma (where my stop would have been). We have the release of the jobless claims at 8:30 and we’ll see how the futures react to that. We did have a couple of earnings releases that may affect the Nasdaq (NFLX, and TSLA), and NVDA was good, TSLA sold off.

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NASDAQ – After the bell, TSLA reported earnings and popped and then dropped 4%. NVDA posted earnings and rallied up 12%, so we’ll see if these earnings can boost the markets. I do think that the reaction to Jobless claims (& Fed chatter) may be the dominant force. The Nasdaq is crawling under the 50sma. Here I have drawn what 4 daily cycle could look like if the ICL is still ahead and we do NOT have a true dcl in place, however…

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This is even questioning a fifth daily cycle in The NASDAQ if we have a dcl in place and yet the markets roll over. I have been saying that the one that would represent #4 seems short, so it could be all one daily cycle as shown above.

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The NASDAQ – A push above the 50sma would pretty much confirm that an ICL was formed, and that could be a buy trigger too.

WTIC – You may recall that Oil was seeking out an ICL , but it was cut short and put in a low early when Israel was attacked. The cycle count just seemed too low  they often run 50 days and this was just 31 days), so I have been saying that Oil stocks look to have bottomed, but Oil may stall and drop 1 more time.

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The USD should be on day 4 of a new daily cycle. I am hoping and expecting for it to peak and roll over as left translated and that would be good for Gold, however each time Gold burst higher lately (Friday and Yesterday), the USD was higher too.

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2 days ago I drew this chart to show how Gold ‘stalled’ and was crawling under resistance.  I expected a breakout with Golds bullish set up: I said…

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The XYZ represents what price could do if it stalls and crawls along the downtrend and 50sma. I would then expect a strong break out higher.

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GOLD surged higher on Wednesday, day 8, and broke out through that resistance area. This is very bullish price action, but it did start to sell off a bit as the day progressed. You can see a clear bullish break out of that 200sma and a downtrend line. This is Gold as of 10 p.m. Wednesday night and I’ll grab a live chart in the morning.

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GOLD is on day 9 here at 6:30 a.m. ET.  It is in a supply area so it may stall or pull back today toward back testing the 200sma. Right now it formed a doji overnight.

SILVER tagged the 200sma and pulled back.

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GDX popped in a big way when both Gold & Silver surged higher in the morning, but as they dipped down, Miners sold off too. This is not bad or ugly, it is just part of the move higher out of the lows. We will have buyers, sellers, profit takers, and accumulators.

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Same chart: So here I was showing that we did have a 1 day drop 5 days ago at the 50sma, but it only lasted for that 1 day. We could see that here due to the bullishness and buyers stepping in, OR…

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GDX – Another idea would be that as Gold & Silver stall, GDX might back test the 50 sma that it broke out from a few days ago. This would present a buying opportunity if it took place.

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GDX also broke from that downtrend line, so it may drop down and crawl along it as it back tests the 50sma area.

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So we had a mixed bag yesterday with the Miners. Some were up, some were down slightly, and some do look like reversals at the top, so we’ll have to see if we get a pull back next (buy that dip), or sideways chop that continues higher. Let’s just look at a few Miners…

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AUMN had popped over 30% on Friday with Golds surge. It then paused for a day and …

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AUMN paused for a day and continued higher Tuesday and Wednesday, but Wednesday surged another 60% at one point. I grabbed this chart when it was ‘only’ up 34%. So we had some Miners follow Golds surge…

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But then I look at MUX and I see a bearish engulfing with high volume. This definitely gives the signal that it wanted to pull back further, maybe to the 50sma.

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And then stocks like KGC, HMY, GFI, AU popped and dropped.

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KGC was still green, but these Miners have had an awesome run for us and may be extended, so this may be where we finally see a dip. Could this fall all the way back to the 50sma?  It could, and that is shown here with an upward sloping channel possibility.  I can’t say whether it will or not, but it would still be bullish.  If we do get a multi-day pull back as Gold & Silver pause and the USD moves higher, that would be a great buying opportunity and that will be in the reports.

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So the General Markets have moved up off of their lows for a few weeks now, but they have struggled at the 50sma. We do have some possible market moving data to be released today, and the Fed speaks midday, so we’ll see if it pushes things one way or the other.  That goes with the Precious Metals Sector too. Gold, Silver, and The Miners have been very bullish out of the recent lows. That area continues to surprise to the upside and remains very bullish early in this first daily cycle, but we could finally be due for a bit of a pause or pullback, and the data may push it one way or the other too.  So again, Jobless Claims come in at 8:30 am ET, but don’t get too comfortable – The Fed speaks at noon. Enjoy your Thursday trading!

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~ALEX

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URA – Most Uranium stocks look exactly like the etf here, but chopping along the 34 sma. Uranium stocks can be quite choppy, so this may continue or it may push higher, but right now they are a buy with a stop under recent lows.

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REMINDER:

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BITCOIN has been stair stepping higher out of the recent lows. We also saw a huge surge on Sunday, and this looks like a bitcoin bullish flag, however even with this recent push higher out of the lows…

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RIOT, MARA, and other Crypto stocks may be bottoming, but they remain AT THE LOWS despite Bitcoins stairstep higher. I have been saying for a while now that I think Bitcoin has a drop into a lower low coming later and the smart money seems to be aware of that. I want to load up on Crypto stocks when that ICL forms, but for now they have just been choppy. I want to remain patient until I see signs of life in the stocks and not just bitcoin.