Friday October 6th – Unemployment Report
Today we have the release of the Jobs Report, and the Fed does pay attention to this report. We’ll see at 8:30 a.m. ET how the futures react, so where are we time-wise?
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SPX – We see that the last daily cycle ran 38 days long and that is fairly normal, since they can run 40-50 days at times. Right now we are at day 32 (or day 2 of a new daily, but a day 30 low is a tad early). We’ll see if the Jobs Report sends this up or down, but I tend to think that it needs more time. Even though I say that, the NASDAQ seems to have a swing low confirmed…
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NASDAQ – The NASDAQ seems to have a swing low confirmed by closing above the 10sma, so I am not going to argue with the markets. If price rises after that Jobs Report, it is going to look more Bullish and the SPX may close above the 10sma too.
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WTIC – Oil is still dropping and this is now becoming a steep drop, 10% on this week alone!
Also, it is only day 31 and Oils daily cycles often last 40-50 days long, so this really has more time to play out. Will it crawl under the 50sma and then drop to the 200sma? Or will the sharp plunge continue to waterfall like Golds sell off? Stay tuned, because I can’t really tell. This drop follows a bull run from June through September and so the steepness of the drop was a bit unexpected. I did think that we were due to drop into a dcl and then an ICL, but this steep 10% drop was a surprise.
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The XOP dropped, then paused, then dropped, and then paused again yesterday, but if Oil has a lot of time left in this daily cycle, then I would expect more damage in this sector too. What a shame, because the Oil stocks have had a very bullish run from May into September. Maybe they will be an excellent ‘buy the dip’ opportunity when the Oil ICL begins to form. They bottomed & started to rally earlier than Oil in May.
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The USD dropped yesterday, but Gold and Silver didn’t really respond by pushing higher. The USD can drop lower, because a dcl is coming due here too.
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GOLD SPOT actually put in a lower low yesterday, but since it was day 33, it seems that the waterfall sell off has dried up. This is actually perfect time for a dcl to form and this was a live chart of Gold that I actually grabbed before 6 a.m.. Gold is now moving higher. To form a swing low, Gold needs to move above …
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GOLD SPOT NOW AT 6:30 a.m. : Gold is now rising this morning, and a Swing low forms when Spots price rises above $1829.20. As you can see, it is not officially ‘confirmed’ until it crosses the 10sma, and that remains well above Gold due to the steepness of that cascade lower. That 10sma is at $1852.64, but I will probably not wait for a pass above the 10sma to go heavier.
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SILVER has a day 35 low so far and is chopping sideways. I think we need a catalyst / maybe the Jobs Report?
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GDX has a day 31 low, but even though Gold and Silver dropped a little yesterday, and Gold made a new low, Miners started to see some buying and we formed a swing low (Unconfirmed). There was no new low in GDX, in fact it didn’t seem to even drop. This is why I said that I likely will not wait for a confirmed swing low in Gold to add to Miners. Will I add Friday before the weekend? Or will I wait until Monday to go heavier? Let’s see how things react Friday after our jobs report and into the close.
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And as mentioned in prior reports, some Miners already seem to be improving.
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NGD was reported as closing higher bullishly above the 10sma 2 days ago. Now it has pushed above the 50sma on a week when Gold is down daily. This is bullish price action.
FSM closed above the 10sma yesterday (this was captured at 11:26 am). I have also mentioned AG has a higher low, HMY is moving higher, and others. Things have improved for the miners, despite Golds lack-luster performance.
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Today we will see how the Unemployment Report moves the markets. The General Markets are close enough to the time for a dcl /ICL, but they also can take up more time. The Precious Metals on the other hand are right in the timing for a dcl/ICL. That means that no matter what happens today, I would expect a move higher next week with the Miners. Many Miners closed higher on Thursday, with Gold making new lows. We are ready to act on that and then we’ll have weeks of movement above the low, hopefully in the form of a strong Rally 🙂 Got Miners? Enjoy your Friday trading & upcoming weekend!
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~ALEX
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Rob pointed out that the Canadian Markets are closed on Monday, so that really makes it tough when it comes to Miners. Why? Well, I received the notice posted here from my broker. The US Markets are open and that means that it is possible that your favorite Miners could rise up a little today, and it’s possible that they continue to rally on Monday in the US.
If that happens, they may then gap Open Higher in Canada on Tuesday. That leaves the Canadian traders with the question: Do you buy today before a 3 day weekend? Or is the risk that the final slam down low could still come early next week keep you sidelined until further clarification? It’s tough now that we are in the day 30+ Zone, but you could start small and see how it goes if you can tolerate a little downside.
