Thursday October 5th – Brighter days ahead?
The Markets have been trying to bounce, but we have the release of the ‘Initial Jobless Claims Report’ at 8:30 a.m. today. We’ll have to see how that affect things later today.
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SPX – The last daily cycle was 38 days long and often they can run longer than 40 days. Right now we are seeing reversals on the way down to the 200sma, but it is still probably too early for a DCL/ICL to form. I would expect that we will get a shake out low. If price breaks above the 10sma, however, that does shows strength that usually confirms that a dcl has formed.
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Interesting:
NASDAQ – A close above the 10sma here as day 5? Is this a dcl? It does look to be, but we have that jobs report released today at 8:30. Price could drop or rise, so if price moves higher from here, it does seem to show that the NASDAQ sell off has finished.
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RECENTLY I STARTED TO DISCUSS OILS CYCLE TIMING. This was my chart on October 2 showing that Oil was likely topping after that false breakout higher.
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THIS IS WHAT I SAID YESTERDAY
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WTIC – Oil has a Doji that closed green, but I think that Oil will fall further.
WOW! I didn’t quite expect that kind of a drop.
WTIC – We had that large 4% Pop higher last week that became a false break out, and now we had a slam down of 5.6%. This is actually a bit early for a dcl (Day 28 or maybe 40+), so it may drop further before putting in the bounce that I drew. It also may bounce and chop along the 50sma and then give us more downside, so this drop could continue.
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Could this be the final daily cycle into an ICL?
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I do not think so. I just want to mention that I have been drawing this with another daily cycle lower after this one that drops into an ICL, and that is because this one still looks right translated. We would need another daily cycle that peaks earlier as L.T. and then also rolls over.
XOP ON Oct 3: I drew a possible H&S forming and the MACD & RSI was really showing strong divergence at the highs as a warning.
The XOP paused, but I said yesterday: The MACD is weak at this triple top, and this can fall further too.
The XOP is crashing down too. So much for the Bull Run remaining steady in Oil stocks. By the time Oil finds a low, this could be down below the 200sma.
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USD – Nothing new is happening with the USD yet. It may be topping before dipping down into a dcl. Based on this chart , the first target would be that 20sma that has held up as support, and we’ll watch it from there.
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GOLD finally bottomed from that ‘waterfall sell off’, and it very well might be forming a bottom here, but it also looks like a ‘bear flag’ at this point. A bear flag is just a small pause. If we see one more drop in Gold, it should be a quick final shakeout, since we would be on day 34 today. Please see the chart.
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SILVER is chopping sideways and the middle candle was the lowest candle. This is Silver live at 6 a.m. ET and I can say the same as Gold. If this drops, the drop should be short-lived. This also may be the bottom.
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GDX made a slightly lower low and then started to bounce back. Even though the GDX ETF made a new low, several Miners that I pointed out in yesterdays report did not. Let’s take a look…
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HMY dipped slightly and started to recover. It did not make a new low on Tuesday or Wednesday.
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NGD actually looks like it has a swing low confirmed, because it did not sell off as sharply, so the 10sma was within reach as it bounced. This may be the bottom for NGD, but if Gold is a ‘bear flag’ and drops, NGD can still drop back to the lows. On Wednesday it dropped and bounced back.
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The General Markets have bounced again, but it is still considered a little early for a dcl, so we’ll just have to wait and see what the reaction to the ‘Initial Jobless Claims Report’ is at 8:30 a.m. today.
Oil is falling fast, but it can be choppy and bounce. It will be due for an ICL after the next dcl, so the ‘peak’ of the next daily cycle may be short-able for those that would shirt oil.
I think that we are seeing a bottoming process in the Precious Metals sector. It is choppy and there is time for 1 more quick drop, so we’ll just have to see how this plays out, but some Miners are starting to see buying. I have a little more info below, remember that we have the initial jobless claims report released at 8:30, and enjoy your Thursday trading!
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~ALEX
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URA: After a very healthy looking slow & steady climb higher, Uranium stocks took the elevator down. Yesterdays drop was big, but it reversed right above the 50sma and closed down less than 1%. There could be more selling, but at least it looks like it may be ready to stabilize a bit.
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UUUU: A reversal at the 50sma is what several uranium stocks did, but it’s likely that this will become choppy and not strongly rally back.
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Are MJ Stocks finding support? It is possible, so this is something that I am watching. We saw a base form with the MJ ETF and then a very strong break out now seems to be back-testing that base.
