Tuesday October 3rd
On Friday I showed the cycle counts for The SPX. We were seeing a day 26 low with a reversal on day 27 creating a swing low on Thursday. I felt and still feel that it is a bit too early for a dcl…
So this is The SPX on Monday. It has run higher on both Friday morning and Monday morning, but it is (So far) Being held back by the 10 sma. It is day 29 most likely and not day 3, and…
This idea was on the weekend report. I wrote: “Even though we may see price bounce around, I still think that the ICL is ahead.”
The NASDAQ also bounced higher in the morning again and then sold off after reaching the 10sma (13sma shown here).
WTIC – Oil was running up along the 13 sma in July and August and then dipped for 10 days to a dcl. It then rallied again and last week it had that 3.5% Pop, but it turned out to be a false break out and those gains have been taken back. Oil is NOT being hindered by the USD, since they both ran up together from June to Oct, but it is getting later in the intermediate cycle and Oil may begin chopping & topping. It can work its way down into the next dcl, so…
WTIC – This would be a choppy drop into the next dcl from the 4th daily cycle. That may then lead to the next daily cycle (#5) being choppy and continuing the drop into an ICL.
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I posted this in the weekend report to point out that dcl’s can be dips to the blue 50sma.
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WTIC DAILY: Take a look at the run in 2021. It really didn’t pull back very much even when it got choppy. When I compare that run to the current run, this one could continue higher toward prior highs, so I would just use a stop and let it ride if you are long oil.
You can see a rather sharp drop on Monday in The XOP too. In fact, take a close look and you’ll see that this suddenly looks like a failed daily cycle and that could lead to a deeper drop down to back test the green 200sma. Oil stocks looked fine last week, but in the last 2 days it looks like the XOP has formed a H&S.
THIS USD IS QUICKLY RUNNING HIGHER out of the lows, but it should be coming due for a dcl soon. The last dcl looks like a blip in this run, but in the past dcls were choppy and a bit longer, so hopefully we see one here soon.
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I know that it seems like the USD will never pull back, but I posted these 2 charts to show the pull backs that took place during the last strong bull run too.
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Here I am pointing out the prior bull run for The USD. It had very strong runs higher too, but they all did eventually get choppy and drop back down to the 50sma for weeks when a DCL comes due. The USD could chop and drop for weeks here too.
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THE USD WEEKLY is now showing a reversal candle after 11 straight weeks higher. We should be seeing a pullback, and we need Gold, Silver, and the Miners to reverse and rally. I’d like to see that as soon as this week.
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GOLD dropped on Monday but we have been discussing a drop into day 32 or so for 2 weeks, so we have expected an ICL sell off. We have not been buying this all the way down, and that makes it easier to be patient and wait for this waterfall sell off to exhaust. As you’ll see, GDX tried to put in a reversal, but it lost that with Mondays Gold drop.
Gold has had these types of waterfall sell offs in the past too. I post this because sometimes when we are in the middle of one, people think that this is the worst selling they’ve ever seen and it’ll never stop. Look at the orange boxes and you see LONG Sell off into a low.
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SAME CHART:
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I will say this though: I did not want to see the March ICL taken out and it now looks like that may happen. THAT gives us lower lows and can change this entire picture to Gold being in that massive trading range and not breaking out yet. So…
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So this is Gold live at 7 am ET, and we need this reversal to hold and give us shorter parameters for a dcl. This is day 31 for Gold and it would be perfect timing.
You can see that The GDX tried to put in a swing low last Friday, but it was unconfirmed and collapsed on Monday. The last daily cycle was long, but I drew a box the same size over this daily cycle to give you an idea of how big this daily cycle could be. A reversal in Gold would no doubt form a reversal in Miners too.
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The General Markets have an unconfirmed swing low, but they can break down, as seen with GDX yesterday. The General Markets are likely on day 29 of a possible 40 days, and they are struggling to get above the 10sma, so they may drop again to extend their daily cycle. If they can push above that 10sma, the dcl may have come in at a shortened area, possibly due to a dip in the USD.
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We are also waiting for a swing low in Gold and the Miners.
So to sum it up: We have been patiently waiting for things to play out bullishly. We are waiting for daily cycle lows and ICLs. I will have a little more to discuss below.
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Enjoy your Tuesday trading!
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~ALEX
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I just wanted to point out that the bullish run in Uranium Stocks (URA) shows divergence in the MACD & RSI and now the URA broke below the support of the 13 sma. These should become a buy the dip or add on the dip set up, when a dcl forms here.
Almost all of the Uranium Stocks, like UEC shown here, are breaking that support line of the 13sma and showing divergence at this double top. These may drop to the 50sma and we can watch for that on a watch list.
I just wanted to mention TLRY: This is a higher risk idea, but that Gap Open and run in July was the result of TLRY EARNINGS. They had a good report. Their next earnings is due out on pre-market Wednesday, so will it gap higher again? Will they give a bullish report again? We don’t know, but the last report caused a gap higher, so I am watching TLRY premarket tomorrow. I don’t think that I’ll front-run it, but I’m interested in seeing if they can post bullish earnings again. It could trigger the sector to move higher again.
