Tuesday September 19th : Pre-Fed Anticipation
We are 2 trading days away from the Fed rate hike decision, and with that I usually expect a little more volatility or uncertainty. We did see some of that on Monday, so Let’s take a look.
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THE SPX pushed higher and then sold off a little into the close. We have a day 10 peak so far, and that would make this L.T. if it rolls over from here. I explained this in the weekend report. This may not break one way or the other until after the Fed Mtg.
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WTIC – Oil popped and dropped on Monday. It is overbought with a reversal candle here, so it may be ready for another small dip. We may only see something like a half cycle dip, possibly to the 13 sma.
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In the weekend report I pointed out that the USD has moved higher for 9 straight weeks. That is Very Strong and it looks like an ICL. It is still possible that this peaks and rolls over into a 3 yr cycle low. The FED Decision may help.
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I also pointed out that this may be a topping process and that we had a topping candle on Friday. I mentioned this in the weekend report.
THE USD dropped on Monday. We have the Fed Rate Hike decision coming up on Wednesday at 2 p.m., and that could cause the USD to move in either direction, but we are waiting to see if this rolls over into that 3 yr cycle low.
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GOLD had a nice surge on Monday, and this is nice to see as we head into the Fed Mtg. Gold recovered the 50 & 200sma as it pushed higher on Monday out of a half cycle low.
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GOLD – I wanted to show you that during the recent dip into that half cycle low, the stochastics actually did get to oversold and is now curling up.
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SILVER is also moving out of the recent 1/2 cycle low. We see a large trading range for Silver, but a breakout higher should lead to a prolonged run.
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GDX is pushing on the 50sma and you can see that miners are leading because Gold is on day 2 out of the 1/2 cycle low, but GDX bottomed 7 days ago. Let’s take a look at a few individual Miners as we head into that Fed Mtg…
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Let’s take a look at a few individual Miners as we head into that Fed Mtg…
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HMY has been pointed out as being above the 200and the 50sma. That is a bullish set up.
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KGC has also been pointed out by me as a ‘leader’ or as bullish, especially since the USD ran higher last week and KGC ignored that & ran higher too. On Monday KGC continued higher and is breaking above the long consolidation.
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SA was breaking out from a bullish wedge, so I posted this 45 minutes into trading. It then ran to $12 and pulled back a bit, but still closed higher than this, closing up at $11.89, up 6.73%. This is still near the lows and I would love to ride this back up to the May highs of $16 or more.
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I captured this chart of AEM on Monday morning as it battled that 50sma. It actually closed up at $49.79 and also looks good coming off of the lows.
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AGI also has that 50 & 200sma pinched together and it has moved higher all last week, when the USD was also racing higher.
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A week ago I mentioned that NAK Popped on some good news. WOW, I did NOT think that it was now on its way to the moon. I’m impressed, but unfortunately I missed this move. Once Gold & Silver break out, we could see more moves like this in other Miners.
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So as mentioned in the beginning of this report, we will possibly see choppy or indecisive trading today and on Wednesday until the Fed decision is released. Then we usually get some wild volatility from 2 to 3 p.m. before a more steady path is set in place. At this point, however, the Precious Metals Sector does have a bullish set up. Enjoy your Tuesday trading!
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