Tuesday September 12th
We have Inflation numbers being released this week on both Wednesday and Thursday, and that can help or hurt the various market sectors. With that in mind, we’ll see what took place on Monday heading into those numbers…
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IN THE WEEKEND REPORT:
SPY DAILY – On a daily basis, the General Markets were unable to recover the 10 & 50sma by Friday. That could be a sign of weakness, so I’ll be interested in keeping an eye on that next week. If it can get back above the 50sma, it should continue higher.
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THE SPX -Did get back above the 10 & 50 sma, just barely, but its’ a small victory for now. We’ll see if it can gain some traction and push higher. We do not have major economic data scheduled until Wednesday and Thursday when we get CPI & PPI Numbers (Inflation numbers).
THE NASDAQ also pushed a bit higher and was able to barely get above the 50sma too. As mentioned, I also like to check some of the bigger company stocks like GOOG, NFLX, MSFT, CRM, etc, they do still look good…
CVNA is one that I mention often and I do trade it too. It was a buy at the 50sma and remains bullish after a small dip to the 10sma (sorry, I had the 20sma here). In fact, this usually can gains 8-10% a day so this is still probably worth buying.
TSLA popped and I captured this midday. This was a 10% pop after a bullish crawl under the 50sma.
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WTIC – Oil is bullishly flagging and even though it may dip down to the 13 sma ( I use that for Oil due to larger swings), it should continue higher. It is only day 11 out of a dcl.
THE USD dipped and may become choppy until Wednesday and Thursdays data. The inflation numbers will likely move the USD & GOLD since they also may indicate what the Feds next move will be.
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GOLD ran higher to the 50sma and was held back. Again, I think that Wednesday and Thursdays inflation numbers may play a roll in the direction that the USD & Precious Metals takes. The set up indicates that Gold should move higher and this should be a 1/2 cycle dip around day 14, but we’ll see. If Gold drops to the 200sma, it is still ok, but it needs to run up and make a new high or it becomes L.T. and bearish short term.
Nothing special happened with Silver yesterday. It curled up as the USD dipped, but this is a very wide trading range and is also likely to move with the inflation numbers due to be released Wednesday and Thursday.
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GDX has a higher low and climbed 1.52%, but it was rejected at the 50sma last week so that is the next hurdle if it can continue higher. It needs a break above that to avoid becoming L.T.
I’m not thrilled with the current set up on many Miners, but I’ll point out a few that I’m keeping an eye on to see if they continue to do well or do they roll over soon. Again, the inflation numbers may play a roll in that going forward.
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HMY is a Miner that remains above the 50sma and the RSI 50 & MACD have been staying on the bullish side. It did this in July and rolled over when the sector weakened, so right now its bullishly set up, but is currently in a rather neutral sector.
EGO also started to perk up when the USD dipped and Gold pushed higher. I grabbed this chart at 9:44 a.m. and EGO did close slightly above the 50sma, so it is trying to move higher. I think it will take those inflation numbers to give us clarity on the sector.
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So Monday was a day of trading that was fairly good in many sectors, especially that MJ Sector. Some of those stocks are moving up 10, 20, and even 50% a day. I have traded that sector and discussed it in the reports and the live commenting area, but it isnt an area that I can really put in the reports yet, Usually we watch the bases ( we have) we discuss the leaders ( we have) and then look for a pullback to buy the dip. A ‘ buy the dip’ pullback is not usually a 1 day dip. You can picture it more like this is the first daily cycle for MJ stocks and they are running very strong. Eventually they will pullback or consolidate for days , maybe weeks. That becomes the dip into a dcl that you buy. We saw it with Crypto Stocks, so you can go back and look at MARA, RIOT, HUT, HIVE, etc and see how they ran strong, and notice how they then ‘stalled’ or consolidated until the next run. I will discuss this briefly below.
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I think that most of the future market direction will be affected by the coming inflation numbers. Enjoy your Tuesday trading.
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN broke down to a new low. I have mentioned a few times now that I am not trading this sector anymore, because I think that it is dropping and chopping lower into a dcl and eventually an ICL. This can drop to $20,000 again easily and MARA & RIOT have now dropped from $20 to $10, so I want to be patient, but I DO want to enter this sector again later on.
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RIOT as an example of what MJ Stocks may be doing if it turns from bear market to bull market. First you get the huge run up out of the bear market and then dips along the way.
For RIOT, that strong run was $3 to $8. It eventually ran from $3 to $20, but we see LONG choppy consolidations and pull backs in between the bullish runs.
So we saw roughly $3 to $8, and a dip to $5 (the buy).
A run $5 to $14, but then a dip to $9(the buy).
Then that $9 to $20 run, but now a much deeper dip signaling a drop into more of an ICL, not just a dcl.
