Wednesday September 6th – Back To Work!
This week is the official end of Summer Vacation in the U.S. and often after the US Holiday called Labor Day, we see fund managers and traders coming back into the markets from a period of rest, and that can increase volume and volatility. Let’s take a quick review of day 1 of post summer trading in the U.S.
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SPX – The USD popped and then dipped a little, while the General Markets dropped slightly. The chart makes it look like will back test the 50sma (& the 9 or 10sma too).
The NASDAQ has the same set up as the SPX. It looks like we should dip a little lower to support, but we don’t have to do that. By churning sideways it will hit that rising 9 sma too.
WTIC – Oil put in a dcl, as noted in the reports over a week ago. SO far it has had 7 straight days higher. UCO or USO can be used to trade it, but this is getting extended, so if one didn’t buy it when I said that it was a buy, then we would wait to buy the dip.
THE USD made a new high above the May highs, and that is not a great thing to see if we want that USD to drop down into a 3 yr cycle low/ Why not? That changes the series of lower lows and lower highs to suddenly one with a shake out and then a higher high. It was just a slight break on day 3 so far, so we need to see this churn sideways and weaken or there is that possibility that Fed Rate Hike intervention has caused a 6 month premature 3 yr cycle low.
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This is the current live snapshot of Gold and Silver right before I release this report at 7:25 am ET. We see that the precious metals sold off overnight but are now trying to bounce back (and the USD is pretty much sideways). For some reason the Gold chart stopped at 6:14 a.m., Silver is at 7:22 am. So I have grabbed other live charts…
GOLD 7 a.m. ET– This is a live shot of Gold and we can see that price is back between the 50 & 200sma. Tuesday was day 11, so this is day 12.
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SILVER 7 am Wednesday – This is Silver on day 16 today. So far this morning it has a dip below the 200sma and then it popped back above it. This can be a 1/2 cycle dip since the timing is right where a 32 day – daily cycle, would fall. You can see that in June Silver danced up and down and all around the 200sma, so this is an area of support.
GDX – The last 2 lows were similar to this one, with a 2nd dip to the lows or a test of the lows, as seen in the boxes. So currently we are seeing GDX rejected at the 50sma. We want the USD to chop sideways and roll over and we want GDX to make a higher 2nd low somewhere in here.
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We had a 3 day weekend in the US, and that was the end of ‘summer vacation’ for many, so this is just going to be a short report, to discuss what has happened on day 1 back from ‘Summer Vacation’. We will need a little more time, but so far the General Markets and Oil look the same, it is the USD that has gained strength, and this may be causing a dip in the Precious Metals. We usually do get a 1/2 cycle dip around this time, so it may end up being that, but like I said, we need a little more time to watch how this plays out. I have not liked Silver stocks during this move and I sold mine last week. I can always get back in if they start to rip higher, and I don’t mind paying a little more, but stocks like EXK actually broke the lows and I’m going to be honest here—I do not like the way GDX, GDXJ, and SILJ are acting with Gold and Silver looking fine. I have had trades in the General Markets and Oil and they have treated me better than the miners. Let’s see what Wednesday brings our way.
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~ALEX
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I Listed a good number of bullish stocks in recent reports and they are actually acting well, even though the General markets did dip a bit too. I will show you 2 below, but many are holding up well or even advancing. It may be that we should trade those bullish areas while I wait for Miners to advance further.
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FUBO is recovering nicely and was up 10% at one point yesterday.
I Had GCT in the recent reports as it rises along the 20sma & 9sma. I think that it is getting too steep to start a position safely, but buying a dip down the road may work out well.
