August 4th – The Weekend Starts on Friday
The NASDAQ dropped again on Thursday, but it did try to reverse with some buying. It lost the 20 sma and is on day 27. Most daily cycles will last around 40 days or so, but as you can see, we have had one that was 50 days, one that was 30 days, and the last one was 42 days long. I expect more selling, even if we bounce on Friday.
The SPX also dropped and started to bounce back.
The IWM gave us a doji candle too, but even though the markets were red, I thought that it was noteworthy that several of the EV Stocks were up, and some ran up 5-20%.
For example, NKLA was up over 20% and then closed up 12.42%. I’ll discuss this at the end of the report.
WTIC – Oil tried to erase that large drop on Wednesday by surging higher on Thursday. Oil stocks ( XOP) continued higher too.
APA released earnings and was up almost 7% breaking to new recent highs. APA also offers a $0.25 qrtly dividend, so as a Buy & Hold it can be rewarding.
NOG also released their earnings and broke to new highs going back to 2018. As far as I can see, they seem to be raising their quarterly dividend each quarter. The last three dividends were 30 cents, then 34 cents in March and finally 37 cents in June.
The USD paused at resistance yesterday. Let’s zoom in.
THE USD popped and then dropped at that resistance point, so we’ll see if it continues to drift lower or does it pause and break out higher. I mentioned yesterday that I’d rather not see this trade at 103.
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Yesterday I wrote:
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GOLD had a peak on day 15 and did not make a higher high after that, so here we see Gold on day 24 now breaking below the 50sma. Hopefully it bounces back and we get a mini shake out or stop run here. If not, Gold could fall to the 200sma.
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GOLD lost that 50sma on Wednesday and then it paused yesterday too, on day 25. DCLs usually run roughly 32 days, but can be more or less. The lows of June should not be broken, since that has been marked as the ICL, but price has been known to drop back above the lows and that could be a tag of the rising 200 sma.
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SILVER lost the 50sma and then started to reverse higher, so it looks like a small reversal candle under the 50sma. This can still drop to the 200 sma if it doesn’t move back above the 50sma soon. Overall, the lows of June should not be broken.
GDX – Miners do tend to exaggerate the moves higher and lower and GDX almost broke the lows after it lost the 50 & 200sma.
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Today is Friday, the last trading day of this week. We have Non-Farm Payroll and the US unemployment rate released at 8:30 am, so we’ll see if that moves the markets one way or the other.
We have seen some selling start in the General Markets, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we got a Friday bounce or a Friday sell off – either one would be normal since topping markets can be choppy at the highs. I wanted to quickly show some charts below of the EV Stocks, since they did resist selling to a degree. That doesn’t mean that they’ll be safe if we start a drop into an ICL, but it is something that I am watching. As for Gold, Silver, and The Miners? They seem to be reacting to the USD and they are dropping into a dcl. Gold and Silver really shouldn’t lose the June lows, if the Cycles hold up.
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I will be attending a funeral this morning at 10 a.m. and it requires a little travel, so I don’t expect to be around at all today. Enjoy your Friday and your weekend, and I’ll have that big picture report out by Sunday.
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~ALEX
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BLDP started to pop on Friday with the markets red so I grabbed this chart and mentioned that. It was up about 10% an looks to be trying to break from a base.
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NKLA NEWS:
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NKLA started to climb from that news after opening RED. I know that NKLA can put in a good 20+% on a single day based on past runs, so I posted this in the comments. NKLA was up 5% in the first 1/2 hr…
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NKLA then ran up over 20% and closed up 12.42%
TSLA landed on the 50sma, so I posted this and mentioned that it was a low risk entry point, since that is support and a tight stop can be used.
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TSLA closed up 2% off of that 50sma and it is as oversold as it was for the last 2 major lows, but if the General Markets dip into a deeper dcl, this may get caught up in the selling. Could it resist the selling? It could, but that also does look a bit like a head and shoulders forming right now too, so I would remain cautious and use a stop at the rising 50 sma.
