Tuesday July 11th – Are We There Yet?
I do believe that the Gold Bugs are going to like what I have to report in that section of the report! First, we’ll cover the other Market Sectors…
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Notice that The NASDAQ And SPX Rallied strongly from March to June: – We saw a drop and reversal higher into the close yesterday on day 9. We do still see divergence as though this is a double top, but buyers continue to step in. What I did notice was that some of the former leaders ( GOOG, MSFT, AAPL, etc) were red while some of the other lagging Tech stocks turned green.
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GOOG was a leader coming out of the lows and looks to be a leader into a lower dcl as it lost the 50sma yesterday.
At the same time, THE IWM, which did NOT rally from March to June, is back at the recent highs. We could be seeing a rotation from the leading tech stocks to the small caps. Many EV, Clean Energy, etc moved higher.
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QS – I have been pointing out some of these small caps as they leave their bases and this chart of QS was in the report on June 13th. Is it higher now? Here it was $7.55 as it pushed higher…
QS was $9.53 yesterday as it continued to see buyers. That is over 25% higher. Many of these small caps are starting to move higher out of their bases.
Oil was down yesterday, but the Oil Stocks were higher. THE XOP does have the 200sma right overhead, so it may stall soon as it attempts to break out. I have discussed APA, NOG, MRO , etc as oil stocks that look to be ready to move higher and The XOP has been chopping higher. At the same time, Oil itself has been choppy and sideways, so I am waiting for a little more action (trending) and I have been trading Tech, EV, Clean Energy, and mainly Crypto Stocks over the past few weeks.
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GUESS WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT? LAST WEEK I SAID THAT WE WILL WATCH THE USD THIS WEEK, SINCE IT STARTED TO LOOK WEAK. LAST NIGHT AT MIDNIGHT E.T., I SAW THE USD FAIL: That should help Gold.
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THE USD continued to drop after slicing down through the 50sma last week. Last night…
Last Night I saw this: THE USD broke below that dcl, so this should now be a failed daily cycle that sells off for weeks. Now we will watch for Gold to respond Bullishly, because this should begin to signal that a dcl and an ICL are in place. Gold should be able to break above the 50sma and attach the all time highs. I did mention that Miners were a buy last week (with a stop), and now this may signal that the lows are in for Miners.
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I POSTED SEVERAL MINERS IN THE REPORTS LAST WEEK, AND I POSTED THIS IN THE WEEKEND REPORT:
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AU has had very strong rallies higher when Gold does, and now take a look at the pull back here.
1. The March sell off landed on the 200sma and the RSI was DEEP.
2. We see that now too. If gold starts to run, this should be a great buying opportunity.
3. EDIT: AU is still $20 right now.
So we turn to GOLD: I have been drawing this bull wedge for Gold and mentioned that if the USD broke down, Gold looks ready to move higher. On Monday Gold was slightly lower on day 6, but the MACD looks to be crossing bullishly higher. I am looking forward to seeing how GOLD and The Miners react to last nights breakdown int the US.
SILVER was pointed out as having found support at the 200sma so far, but it also is pushing on the resistance of a downtrend line and then it will face the 50sma. These should be no problem if the USD is rolling over.
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GDX is on day 6 and after almost taking out the recent lows at the 200sma again, it reversed higher on Monday, recovering the 200sma and the 10sma. This is great news, because that means that Miners are RIGHT – AT – THE – LOWS and I have been pointing out the decent divergence at the recent 2 lows.
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GDX : This is a bullish chart too.
1. GDX reversed with a slight shake out at the 200sma just like the last ICL in March.
2. It also reversed right at the 50% pull back.
3. In technical analysis, this is a buy with a stop under the low 6 days ago.
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Notice also that the 34 sma was resistance on day 3. GDX might break above that as soon as today and you could view that as a sign of strength. You can see that it also stalled there in March when it was rocketing out of the lows.
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THIS WAS IN THE WEEKEND REPORT TOO.
THE GDX WEEKLY found support at the 50 week ma again (2 weeks in a row). The GDX WEEKLY is now finally in the oversold area too.
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In the weekend report I wrote about EGO, because I like some of these bullish set ups:
EGO could go either way right here, but what impresses me is that it ran from $5 to $12 and is only at $10. That is a $7 run and only a $2 pullback. This could go either way, higher or lower, likely depending on the USD, but this will be a good buy when the time comes.
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EGO pushed nicely higher and is about to attempt a break above the 50sma this week. This would be a sign of strength if it regains that 50sma too.
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HL – I have been mentioning the stronger divergence in Silver stocks lately, and some have bull wedges too. In Technical Analysis, That made EXK, HL, AG, CDE, GATO, PAAS, etc. a buy last week, with a stop under those lows. On Monday we saw a nice push higher off of the lows.
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HMY – I just wanted to point out that many of these Miners are RIGHT AT THE LOWS. You can buy them with a stop or you could even wait for a day or 2 and see how Gold reacts to the USD break down & the 50sma, etc.
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I remember when MUX ran almost 100% from the March lows at $5.50 to the April highs at $10, and some people said in the commenting section: “I’d love to buy a pullback there!” Well, MUX was just trading below $7.
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RGLD – Most Miners are near support areas, so run through your watch lists and look for signs of strength. RGLD has done a shake out at the 200sma, for example. A Push above the 20 or 34 sma would be a buy as an additional sign of strength to me.
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Last week when the USD sliced under the 50sma, I mentioned in the report that it could be ready to roll over and this next week of trading should tell us a lot about Gold and an ICL if it does. Last night the USD broke the lows, so now we will see how Gold & The Miners react to that.
Even before that USD breakdown, I had been seeing Bullish Divergence in the Miners, with Bull Wedges in some of them too. Miners were finding support as they sold lower (GDX 50% retrace and the weekly on the 50 week ma). And the best news is that no one has missed a thing. Most of these Miners are still right at the lows, so you can buy here with a stop, or you may even wait to see how Gold reacts first. However you want to play this, we may now have the ICL in place for the Precious Metals Sector. THAT would mean weeks and even months of rally and trending higher in the Mines again. Many Miners ran up 100% from the March to may rally. This next one should be much better as Gold breaks to new all time highs.
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ENJOY YOUR TUESDAY TRADING! 🙂
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN HAS BEEN STRONG, but I am wondering if we get a quick dip as the day 30 (ish) low and then a rally continues? This dip does not have to happen, but I do usually see dips around day 30 & 60, so it is in the back of my mind.
We have been enjoying massive rallies in Crypto Stocks. Can you believe some of these running corrections? Wow! HUT, HIVE, RIOT, MARA, WULF, CIFR, CLSK, BTBT, have been running strong and many have ‘running corrections’, which stretch higher and higher day after day…until they peak.
While HUT, HIVE, RIOT, MARA, WULF, CIFR, CLSK, BTBT, and others rally strongly, I also mentioned that we have laggers. I pointed out laggers like CAN as it broke the 50sma last week as a buy. ( and there were other laggers mentioned like SOS, EBON, NCTY, ETC.). I pointed out Can in the comments section 1 hr into trading, up 4%. It closed up over 8%
SOS started to take off with high volume, so I posted this chart in the commenting area too. It was pulling back intraday, but it formed a cup and handle intraday, and then…
SOS exploded to new highs and ran up about 30%.
NCTY also took off , up 25%, so the laggers began to catch fire too.
IN EV:
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FSR was pointed out last week. It closed above the 50sma Friday and had follow through yesterday. It was up 7% midday, and this was with the QQQ and SPY selling off. By the close…
FSR closed up 17%, so you can see that these can really do very well when they get going. We made a lot of money in this sector in 2020.
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GP -GreenPower Motor Company shot up 13%, again, when the general markets were weak for much of the day.
I posted this chart on July 3 of LCID as a bullish set up. It closed above the 50sma here, and it should at least run to $8 (the upper base area), but a breakout could also follow.
LCID was holding above the 50sma over the next few days, so I grabbed this midday yesterday too.
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LCID closed at the highs of the day, so again, this sector is gradually shaping up.
When NKLA was running, I mentioned that NIO could be next.
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NIO looks to be running higher out of a base too. It back tested the 34 sma and then rallied from $8.25 to almost $11 so far.
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Just a couple of ‘sidenotes’.
I have been watching GOSS for literally months. I think that this will break out one day and when it does, it should start to trend higher, so we can keep this on a ‘watch list’.
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SIDENOTE FOR AUMN TOO –
AUMN did a 1:25 reverse split. Sometimes once these settle down, they can really take off, and I am seeing extreme oversold conditions, a possible bull wedge , and strong divergence at the very lows. This is at a time when the USD is likely rolling over? It is a lottery ticket, not a strong Miner, and they need money, so I wouldn’t buy a big position in case they do that dreaded offering (maybe a small position?). I just wanted to point out the set up and we’ll probably be re-visiting this later too.
