Thursday July 6th
WE HAVE A BIT OF A MIXED PICTURE IN THE GENERAL MARKETS, BUT THEY DO REMAIN BULLISH LONGTERM…
.
SPX #1– If we had 2 really long daily cycles of over 50 days, and then 2 that were a little over 30 days ( to balance things out), then we would actually be on the 5th daily cycle now. We should expect a 5th daily cycle to top early and roll down into an ICL eventually.
.
SPX #2– So when I see the divergence at the recent highs, it has to serve as a warning that we may start to drop soon. It is true that we could just chop sideways and eventually push higher as drawn here, but when I look at the other charts (NAZ, IWM, SOXX, etc), it seems like this may become a L.T. Daily cycle that starts to show more weakness. THE DIP WILL BE A GREAT BUY AT THE ICL, POSSIBLY IN AUGUST.
.
THE IWM shows divergence too, but it may just chop sideways for a bit and then push higher. Why do I say that? It has a different set up that the SPX or NASDAQ. IWM did not rally all throughout 2023 like they did, so it may act differently here too. We’ll see, but many small caps in EV and Clean Energy do seem to be more bullish lately.
Look at the IWM chart again and compare it to this NASDAQ chart. Tech has been in rally mode, but we are starting to see divergence, and this could also start to dip lower. For now, you can just raise stops and allow it to take you out of the trade. Now we go to Semiconductors. Are they a double top so far too?
,
THE SOXX did not make it back to the highs, it has strong divergence, and actually resembles a H & S. MU released earnings and dropped and AMD is struggling now too, so this sector may be ready to drop first.
.
AMD – You can see that AMD had divergence at the highs, and then it already started to sell off. It may bounce or chop around up here above the 50sma for a bit, but this and MU seem to be showing weakness as an early warning sign for The SOXX?
WTIC – Oil finally broke out from the 50sma and a downtrend line. Maybe now it is going to run to the blue 200sma? How did Oil Stocks do?
.
XOP – The Oil stocks, which broke out last week, were red? Strange sector 🙂
THE USD had a solid day, holding above the 50sma and rising up. I just want to say in advance that Gold dropped, but Silver Popped. That was odd too.
.
GOLD seems to have been held back by the rise of the USD and the upper trend line. It was the 50sma that stopped Gold last time and I thought that we may run up and tag that gain, but we’ll see if it has enough strength to do so, or is this rolling over early? Silver actually ran higher, so let’s take a look at that…
.
After reversing at the support of the 200sma, SILVER was actually up 1.25% with the USD rising higher. It is still in a downtrend and it is at the upper downtrend line, so we’ll watch to see if it can break out or if it gets rejected. I will say this: HL, EXK, CDE, PAAS, etc sold off by over 3% (That is not a good sign).
.
GDX followed Gold and not Silver. It was rejected around the 20 & 34 sma, so now we have to see if this was all we get for a bounce (we still have divergence), or does it just get choppy?
..
I think that a dip into an ICL (If we do get one soon) will be a great buying opportunity. It could be milder than normal in the General Markets, and we appear to be seeing that now with Gold, Silver, and the Miners. During those pullbacks I keep an eye on many stocks on my watchlist, and wait for them to bottom near support at the time of the ICL. Many stocks in our watch lists, and also the Precious Metals / Miners have strong potential for the 2nd half of the year. As you know, I expect the USD to roll over into that 3 year cycle low then too, so for now trading / buy & hold is fine for the General Markets, but stops must be used. The Miners have been pulling back and our patience is always tested with pull backs that last for weeks, but the rewards should be great when the time comes to buy 🙂 I’ll have a little more below, but for now…Enjoy your Thursday trading!
.
~ALEX
.
BITCOIN WEELKLY – I’ve been saying that I’m expecting $35,000 push, but we are up against some resistance, so it is taking a bit longer than I expected. Even though Bitcoin has churned sideways around $30.000, Crypto stocks are pushing higher.
The Crypto Stocks have been running very nicely: I have pointed our ‘running corrections’ and they are also running away, putting nice gains in place.
.
HUT, HIVE, MARA, BTBT, etc drop intraday, but have been closing green day after day. This has been my focus lately.
.
HUT So when I step back and look at these with a measured move, we may be starting to reach an area where they start getting choppy, churn sideways, and they could start consolidating recent gains at any time.
.
HIVE – Many of these look the same and the gains have been very good since Bitcoin bottomed.
.
If the Tech Sector does hold up for a bit, CVNA & AI are 2 stocks that trade well and are nearing the area where I have traded them. This really moves and may be better left to experienced traders, since a market drop may take this down quickly. It has very large moves over time Up & Down, but a typical 1-3 day move has been 20-40+% off of the 20sma.
Recently I discussed some of the EV or Energy Stocks running swiftly higher with this PPSI chart. XPEV, SOLO, NKLA, NIO, CBAT, and a few others have pushed off of the lows. So…
.
XPEV, SOLO, NKLA, NIO, CBAT, and a few others have pushed off of the lows. I know that we need to anticipate a possible pull back in the General Markets, but we don’t know if this EV -Clean Energy Sector will continue to try to move higher, since it lagged when Tech did. You can trade them or buy and use stops…
.
I posted this in the commenting area yesterday, since many of the Clean Energy and EV Stocks have been perking up. I was watching the 50sma & downtrend line and FSR closed just slightly above it at $5.96.
.
SOLO surged 100% in June and then dropped back to support. Is it preparing to trend higher with higher lows(?), or is it another rally that fails. Strong progress Might depend on whether or not the General Markets eventually dip down into an ICL, so we use stops just in case stocks get caught up in some selling and return to their bases.
.
I have discussed watch lists of old favorites, stocks that did well in the past. We know that some have already done very well, like NVDA, NFLX, MSCT, etc , but some have not been fully recovering or running as well as those others. Will they play catch up? I have been looking for signs of life in SQ, PAGS, SNAP, VIPS, SYSS, DDD for example. I am starting to see signs of life…
.
SQ popped above the red 50sma in June, back tested it after being rejected at the 200sma, and now has broken above the 200sma. This is bullish progress and SQ used to trade up around $300.
.
SNAP WEEKLY – Take a look at the base on SNAP. This looks like a lagger, but recently they released earnings and it ran from $8 to $12. The Weekly RSI moved above 50% for the first time in years. Snap may be ready to start trending higher too.
.
TWST – I know you must recognize TWST. I have posted this a lot since it started to move out of the lows. I said that I expected it to run to $30 from $11 and so far it has made it above $20. Very steady, very nice. Buy it at the 20sma with a stop if it gets there again.
Above I mentioned: “Progress Might depend on whether or not the General Markets eventually dip down into an ICL, so we use stops just in case stocks get caught up in some selling and return to their bases.” I think that a dip into an ICL could be milder than normal if we get one. I also think that it will be a great buying opportunity for the General Markets, Many stocks in our watch lists, and also the Precious Metals / Miners.
