Thursdays ‘Initial Jobless Claims’ Report
Today we have the initial jobless claims at 8:30 am ET. Lately this report has actually caused the markets to rally, but they are due for a dip, so we’ll see what happens. Let’s take a look at the charts…
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The SPX is chopping sideways this week and had a couple of Pop and Drop days. It is due for a dip into a dcl at any time, but it could go either way on the day that a report is released. Let’s expect a dip though, sooner than later.
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SPY – If we view the channel on SPX or SPY, we see that a drop to the 50sma is probably a reasonable target.
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The NASDAQ started to drop yesterday after briefly making a new high, so we had a fairly strong reversal on the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq has had a nice run since day 30, and you can see how overbought it is. We should expect a pullback, even if the Jobs report causes a 1 day pop higher.
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NVDA ( SOXX) – The semiconductors had that strong Gap open 9 trading days ago when NVDA released strong earnings. It got a little overbought to the upside and couldn’t continue higher, so we may now get a gap fill. This could become a nice buy opportunity for those looking to go long SOXX, SOXL, or Semiconductors like AMD, MU, AMAT, etc.
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BKX – Did I mentioned a few days ago that BANKS are starting to come out of the lows? I noticed that BKX broke above the 50sma, and I have been watching the banks on this chart. This is a higher risk area due to the ones that failed, but back in March I did say that when these start to recover, they could offer some Big Gains.
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ZION is an example of a Banking Chart that looks very good as it starts to recover and got back above the 50sma. These can be a little choppy or they may just continue to trend higher from here, but the set up is good looking.
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WTIC – Oil did push just a little higher on Wednesday, but remains under the 50sma. That said, many Oil stocks looked even better and may be leading the way.
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XOP (GUSH) – As you can see, the XOP sliced right through the 50sma (ahead of Oil) and the oil companies listed on this chart also look bullish. The MACD did a kiss on the second drop, and that is bullish divergence. Again, these have been choppy and frustrating for months, but one day they may begin to trend higher. Lets look at NOG.
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NOG actually has a high consolidation chopping all around the 50sma (many others are at the lows like the XOP), and NOG broke above the 50sma. That 50sma is actually curling upward, so some of these Oil stocks look even better than Oil itself. I grabbed this chart midday, so the volume actually ended up being 2 million by the close.
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THE USD actually now looks to be forming a triangle or pennant with the recent chop and that could be a stealthy dcl. The USD was slightly down, but Precious Metals did not pop higher, they were down even more.
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GOLD was stopped at the 50sma as expected, and now it dropped below the 9 sma yesterday.
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SILVER did a Pop and Drop and the miners did the same thing. Silver did hold up at the 10sma so far though.
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GDX started to run higher at the open, but then it dropped down 2% off of the days highs. Volume was double what it was on Monday and Tuesday.
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Some of those stronger Miners that were holding up well may begin to break down too, but they will become a nice buying opportunity for the patient ones. This is DRD for example, and it is still holding up above the 50sma, but that likely will not continue if we start seeing increased selling in this sector.
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So today we should see some more selling if we get the follow through, but like I said, the Jobless Claims reports have caused a Pop or rally lately. If we do get a little rally out of the news, we should still expect more of a drop into a dcl with the General Markets soon. Oil stocks, Banking Stocks, Clean Energy & EV and even Oil stocks may not join in the selling, since they are coming out of the lows or bases, but they could become choppy rather than enjoy a strong run. We’ll have to wait and see on that one, but they do look like a bullish set up and I’ve mentioned some stocks that you can check out as possible buys, like PLUG, CLNE, FCEL (earnings today), NOG, APA, ERF, CPE, PACW, WAL, ZION, KEY, etc. I usually look for price near support or breaking above the 50sma as further confirmation of bullishness. Tomorrows report may cover more ‘stock picks’ or ‘trade ideas’ once we get beyond the jobs report. Enjoy your Thursday trading.
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~ALEX
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Bitcoin is in a downtrend after breaking the recent lows, and nothing has changed at this point. This could take quite a while to work out to a final low. what I have drawn here is NOT an exact reflection of what bitcoin will do, but it’s just an idea that it could chop around inside of the downtrend channel until the next low is in place. If it breaks above that downtrend channel, then it could accelerate higher, but that is unlikely at this point.
