FRIDAY JUNE 2nd
Today is Friday, the last trading day of the week and we did have some action on Thursday, so let’s take a look at what we have as we head into the weekend.
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SPX – I had mentioned that after a reversal candle you usually see a day or 2 follow through lower, but a dcl is also coming due, so we might see more selling (use stops). We did NOT see more selling, but Thursdays Jobless Claims report reversed the markets at the 10sma ( 8ema shown), and sent the markets higher quickly.
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The NASDAQ has been strong and steady at that 8 ema and it also reversed higher. This should be day 26 (of possibly 40) if that was a dcl at the 50sma. You can use the 8 ema or 10 sma as a trailing stop if you are long or go long. The Tech Sector ( including the Semiconductors) have been quite bullish.
WTIC – Oil reversed higher to ‘Up 2.95%‘. Oil has been so choppy that I’m not sure of anyone cares until it breaks cleanly above that 50sma and then the 200sma. You can buy any reversal or swing low with a stop right at those lows, but this sector has been frustrating, even for those trades.
THE USD peaked on day 32 (late) and dropped sharply on Thursday, giving us a swing high. The USD should be dropping into a dcl.
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HOWEVER: I did mention another scenario recently that I will repeat here and in the weekend report…
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THE USD
1. Should dip to a dcl (maybe the 50sma) and
2. Then it should bounce higher (maybe to the 200sma) and then roll over for a drop into an ICL
3. What was that other scenario?
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The USD: That rally in March was an anomaly due to the Bank Failure. What made it different?
It rallied higher for a long time to a peak and then rolled over and dropped for a long time too, even breaking those February lows. What if we see that as all one LARGE daily cycle from the blue arrow to the #1? This could be the 2nd LARGE Daily Cycle that also just peaked and rolls over to a new low. In that case…
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In that case, Gold bottomed at the first daily cycles ‘peak’ and rallied sharply, and would likely now have its own LARGE daily cycle and bottom with this peak. This is considered ‘less Likely’, but it has crossed my mind when I try to make sense of the set up. We need to watch the move out of these lows for Gold and the dip for the USD closely.
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With that second scenario, you can buy some Miners with a stop, but you may get stopped out if there is one more daily cycle.
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So I was expecting GOLD to bounce to the 50sma and roll over as the USD bottoms, but the USD does not look ready to bottom quite yet and gold is already at the 50sma. Will Gold break out or chop sideways at the 50sma? We’ll have to wait and see, but as a sidenote:..
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As a sidenote, SPOT GOLD does NOT show that Gold is at the 50sma quite yet, so pushing higher is possible.
This is spot gold at 6:30 a.m. ET. Friday.
SILVER would do something like this in technical analysis. The 50 sma could be resistance and the 200sma would act as support ( or an area for a shake out).
GDX is very similar to Silver, but GDX was up 3.56% on Thursday and that is a big day.
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So today is the last trading day of the week. The general Markets are still trending higher, Oil is still very choppy, but now the USD looks to have a swing high and should be due for a drop into a dcl. This is popping Gold, Silver, and The Miners. I’ll discuss more in the weekend report, but if you wanted to trade this, I pointed out that some stronger miners like HMY, DRD, GFI, etc did reverse right at the 50sma, and you can use a stop there. The USD had a very odd run in Feb -March and I’m wondering if that kind of a move will repeat? That is not normal, but it would mean that Miners can rally from here, so I explained it here and I will discuss that again in the weekend report.
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YESTERDAY I WROTE THIS:
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HMY did reverse at the 50sma and it also closed above the 8 ema, but that doesn’t mean that we are at its’ final low. You can buy with a stop, but this can go lower if we are seeking out an ICL.
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GFI also reversed at the 50sma and is oversold, but like I said…
GFI also reversed at the 50sma and is oversold, but like I said, that doesn’t always mean this is the final low in a sell off. If we are seeking out an ICL, this can do what it did in February. At that time we saw a little ‘bounce’ or ‘reaction’ at the 50sma, but it continued to break lower to the 200sma. LOOK AT THE RALLY FROM MARCH TO MAY THOUGH!
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Below I want to quickly review some of the recent stock picks. I had been noticing that some of the stocks that I was buying & selling (Trading) started to ‘Trend higher’, leaving their bases behind. As mentioned, I’ve been looking for a few to try to ‘Buy & Hold’ and see if they continue to run higher.
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~ALEX
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I just want to mention that when these get ‘trending’, some go straight up and others have a LOT of sideways choppiness in between runs. Take a look at AMZN. It is in recovery mode, but that is NOT always an easy ride with the ‘ups’ and ‘downs’, but over time it is heading for the highs.
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TWST was in a report last week. It is riding sideways along the 50sma and actually dropped at the open yesterday, but then it went from Red to Green, rising up 4% by midday. I posted this chart as a reminder midday. It then ran up over 6% and closed up 5.68%. The set up looks good, but it really needs more volume (buying) to keep it going or to get it ‘trending’.
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I mentioned that BOX released earnings on Wednesday and it popped and dropped at the 50sma, but the earnings was actually a good “beat’ of the estimates. Well on Thursday it dropped to the 8 ema, reversed higher, and started to move up again so I posted this reminder chart. It is wrestling with the 50sma, but this still looks good longer term. BOX closed at the 50sma with good volume.
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KNTE was on my list too, with this set up just under the 50sma. It is Biopharma, they released earnings earlier in May and it has crawled under the 50sma since then. It still looks poised to break out to me and a run to the 200sma would be great ( $4 to almost $8.
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MVLA also gapped down under the 8ema (probably to the 10sma) and then reversed higher. It closed up 3.36% and it does bother me that the volume is so light, but that can change over time as buyers step in. As a reminder though: Go back up to the chart of AMZN and look at how it acted around the 50sma before it was ready to get steady & higher.
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ENVX was mentioned on Wednesday in the comments by Mark and I liked the set up under the 200sma, so I posted this yesterday an hour before the market open using my own chart.
1. It broke a downtrend and back tested it.
2. It had an earnings crash and was recovering.
It was ‘pushing’ on the 200sma.
4. The MACD is bullish as it recovered the 50sma, and this was a BUY, especially if you see it moving above the 200sma, and…
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ENVX broke that 200sma and closed up 9%. This can keep running since the volume was decent, but it may back test too, so if you want to buy or add, keep an eye on it for the next dip.
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ARQQ is one of my picks that did not close green. It did run higher to $1.54, but it sold down into a doji or ‘indecision’ candle. Even if that indecision causes a pullback to the 50sma, this is still a valid set up. It crawled along under the 50sma, dropped on the earnings, and has moved higher ever since. It is now crawling above that 50sma.
Uranium Stocks popped in a big way yesterday. Take a look at NXE, UUUU, URG, UEC, DNN, CCJ, etc. They all surged.
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NXE did a shake out at the blue 50sma on Tuesday and then surged on Wednesday and Thursday to break out convincingly above the 200 sma. This was up over 12% at one point yesterday. They look to be breaking from consolidation and they may start trending too.
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UEC was up 13% as it broke above the 50 sma. A run to the 200sma would be nice.
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And then we had the crypto-Stocks that I’ve been mentioning too. Bitcoin is not doing anything really, but these keep putting in small gains. I will discuss Bitcoin in the weekend report. My only concern is that it is on the 3rd daily cycle. It is early in that daily cycle so it can run higher, but also a 3rd daily cycle can weaken quickly. These crypto stocks do make itlook like it wants to run higher first though…
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RIOT was up again and has held above the 50sma. Basically this is choppy now, but the 50sma was at $10.50 7 days ago and a move from that $10.50 to $13 is a decent gainer over the past couple of days.
