Wednesday May 24th – Waiting For the Fed Minutes
We have the release of the Fed Minutes today at 2 p.m., and that can move the markets one way or the other, so let’s keep that in mind. The General Markets may have started to pullback on Tuesday, so let’s take a look.
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NASDAQ – The Nasdaq ( & SPX) dropped on Tuesday, so here I captured the last 2 daily cycles in ‘Boxes’. They were rather long ones. The Yellow Box is the exact same size as the Green one that we are traveling in now, so with a clear swing high, a dcl may be on the way with the release of the Fed minutes. We’ll see what those ‘minutes’ do…
We’ll see what the Fed minutes do, but if the markets are starting to drop into a dcl, then a bear etf trade could be worth a try for a short run (SOXS, SQQQ, SPXS for example).
WTIC- Oil continues to chop sideways and higher, but itis making slow progress after putting in the lows.
The USD is now approaching what I have been pointing out as the next possible target / resistance point. It actually should be getting ready to drop into a dcl too, since it is getting late in this daily cycle. That could push Gold higher.
GOLD – Gold did seem to ignore the USD as it pushed higher.
SILVER also dropped and reversed higher on Tuesday. This is day 20 for Silver, and with the Fed minutes, it is possible that we get a bounce from here before a drop into the next dcl.
GDX is chopping around a little here, but I do expect more downside.
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I want to explain something about the anticipated Gold drop from here, and I explained it in the commenting area yesterday. We do not have to deep drop that falls a lot lower before we resume a breakout to new highs and major rally. In 2019 we had 3 dcls and the last one was the ICL. Look how mild the drop was on the chart below and you’ll see that it totaled a $50 drop over months. It was MILD, but it was sideways, choppy, and very frustrating, but you still needed to keep an eye on it, because when this chop was done, this rocketed higher. We could see something like this choppiness and then a major break out and run. I can discuss this further in the weekend reports.
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Yesterday Wrote this:
Today we have the release of the Fed Minutes, so we may see some additional volatility around 2 p.m., but it also may not amount to much. The General Markets do look ready for a dip, but the Biotech stocks have been marching to the beat of their own drummer. We also saw reversal candles in Gold, Silver and the GDX, so we’ll see if they get any follow through or a bounce. If so, that may be an opportunity to add a hedge or even go short, but I’d like to see a bounce to the 50sma to be able to do that with a tight stop. Again, we may get some sideways choppiness and that is not great when shorting, so I find that the trade is an option, but not always easy to time. We’ll see how things play out. Enjoy your Wednesday trading!
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~ALEX
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FULC popped 12% yesterday after back testing the 50sma. This is one of the companies that I pointed out as looking like a round base and could start to trend higher.
Back in April I actually first pointed out MBIO as a capitulation low with a strong 18% reversal pop. If you bought it around here, it was just above $3.
Yesterday I had MBIO in the report as ‘Interesting’ with this Crawl & Pinch under the 50sma (Between the 34 & 50sma). They often crawl and then break out, so that would be a buy too.
MBIO did break out yesterday and was up 8%.
SENS was mentioned yesterday too, and it popped and dropped, so we have a doji. It is still crawling above the 50sma, so it still looks ok to me.
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BITCOIN is simply chopping sideways and so is MARA, RIOT, BIYF, HUT, CLSK, BTBT, etc. I have been expecting a push to new highs out of the dcl, but the longer that this chops sideways, we begin to face the thought that this COULD also drop into a lower low too, so using stops on Crytostocks are always important, and position size is Key too.
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MARA has been in this choppy pattern for a while. It actually runs from ‘roughly’ $8.50 to $10.75, so that would have been some nice trading if we knew in advance we could buy 1,000 or 2,000 shares at $8.50 and sell then $2 higher over and over again (but who knows when this pattern will break?). The problem is this: In the U.S. we have a 3 day weekend coming up this week and Bitcoin has no holidays. Now that we have chopped sideways, we have wasted time & space and Bitcoin could break either way. It may be difficult to hold these knowing that Bitcoin will trade Friday evening to Tuesday Morning without us.
