Friday May 19th

In February and March, when we saw the USD rally, The General Markets dropped into what should have been an ICL dip, and the Precious Metals did the same. They both dropped as the USD moved higher. Well, the USD is moving higher again, but the General Markets are ignoring it and rising up with it, while the Precious Metals drop. Today is Friday, the last day of the week, so much of this will need to be discussed in the weekend report. That will be out Sunday, since I am travelling for much of Saturday.  Let’s take a look at the markets…

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THE SPX was chopping sideways for over a month, but it broke higher on Wednesday and had follow through on Thursday. This is with the USD rising up too. The SPX is also not overbought yet, so it can break even higher and run to the next pivot level near 4300.

The NASDAQ broke out Wednesday too and is pushing higher after reversing at the 50sma. I had mentioned raising stops to the break out or 10sma and I would leave them there to allow for a little wiggle room just in case any data causes choppiness. The Nasdaq could run to 1300, even though it is slightly overbought.

THE SOXX moves quickly and is back at the highs of a consolidation that started in February. The SOXX actually lost the 50sma, but as it crawled sideways it formed a downtrend line & broke through both this week,

One thing to take note of with these markets is that both the SOXX & NASDAQ very clearly bottomed at the end of April. The SPX double bottomed at the end of April & again in early May. That might cause me to count the lows from the end of April and we’d be near day 20. That means that these can rally higher into the 20’s or even day 30 or so, but it helps us to keep ‘timing’ in mind for the next pullback.

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WTIC – We should have some meaningful lows here at this wide double bottom (an ICL), but Oil has been SO choppy month after month after month that it is hard to buy & hold & enjoy. That said, it is breaking from the downtrend and trying to regain the 20 & 50sma as the next possible resistance areas. It is not overbought at all.

I’d like to see The USD slow down here and get a little choppy. This is day 24 using Stockcharts, so this should be R.T.  This means that it will eventually dip into a dcl and then it should try to get to new highs again.  The rally in Feb-March was unusual. It was R.T., but it rolled over and died. We’ll see what happens this time. Please read the chart…

GOLD failed by breaking below the last dcl and the 50sma. You have to expect more downside, even if Gold were to bounce on Friday.

So when I look at SILVER I see a similar pattern with the Feb drop. It started with a 1 day slam down and then it was followed by a slow, painful, somewhat torturous sell off for over a month. The following rally quickly erased the pain in March, but for now we seem to have a sell down ahead.

The GDX drop is starting out quite similar to the Feb drop too. GDX sold off from about $33 to $26.64, but it did that drop little by little and day after day. I remember how negative the commenting section got day after day too. Then when it rallied in March, HMY, GFI, OR, DRD, etc ripped higher, so we want to try to remember that when it comes time to buy that dip. For now…

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GDX gave us a small reversal candle. Is it going to bounce for a day or 2 & back test the 50sma & break down area? IF so, you could short a reversal there or hedge if you are holding Miners.  The JDST & DUST charts are almost the exact opposite of the GDX & GDXJ charts. You see how I drew the back test here, right?…

JDST would also do a back test at the Magenta line and a reversal there could be bought with a stop to go short or hedge if you have long term positions.

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This is GOLD, SILVER, and THE USD from the top of this page (Kitco). It is still early in the morning, but s0 far we may get that USD dip and Gold bounce.

 So earlier this week I mentioned that everyone would need to decide for themselves how much, if any, Miners they want to hold on to when it failed. I know that some can just ride these dips out, knowing how fast a snap back rally can be, but for others? That selling day after day is like a gut punch. Now Gold has finally failed too, so if you didn’t cut back and wish you had, a bounce may be your next opportunity to step aside and maybe even hedge or short for a while. The General Markets have been chopping sideways for weeks, but now they broke higher to again prove that they can climb a wall of worry (Debt Ceiling & possible signs of a recession this time). I will discuss the bigger picture in the weekend report on Sunday.  Thanks for being here and enjoy your Friday a& Weekend!

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~ALEX

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BITCOIN – No real change, but it dropped yesterday and it isn’t exactly ramping up out of the recent lows like it did from the last lows. This sideways chop has caused choppiness in the crypto stocks too.

 

So we saw this on many Crypto stocks yesterday.

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MARA is still chopping sideways along the 50sma, and it may not be ready to run higher until Bitcoin does.  This is how they move in the sideways choppiness, but please always use stops, just in case Bitcoin or any of these run into problems. They do move quickly in either direction and for that reason these trades are really not for everyone. It goes up 12% one day and then down 9% the next.