April 9th Weekend Report
DAILY : THE SPX dipped to the 8 ema and price held with a reversal again on Thursday. I wanted to show you day 17 now vs day 17 on the last daily cycle just to show that we have time for more upside. The last 2 daily cycles were on the long side at roughly 50 days, and this may only be 35 or 40+, but there is still time to push to a higher high.
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WEEKLY: THE SPX – We have the end to the bear market correction and a breakout and back test. I did fully expect a recession at the end of the year, so maybe this just double tops and then gets choppy for a few months before breaking out higher? I don’t know, but for now it is a bullish set up.
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The NASDAQ WEEKLY is also a bullish set up. These General Market charts have a choppy bottoming process.
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WTIC landed on weekly support and then this week it gapped up above $80 with OPEC announcing that they’ll be cutting Oil Production. So far price has stayed above that $80 mark.
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THE XOP also gapped higher with that declaration, but it is pushing on strong resistance, so we’ll see if or when the XOP can get above the $135 area. That would break the downtrend line and the support turned resistance line in red. Breaking that downtrend line would be bullish. Oil stocks are also oversold, so this may be an ICL and a bullish set up to keep an eye on.
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USD DAILY – The USD remains quite oversold and was in the timing for a dcl. I have been discussing this in detail during the weekday reports. The question affecting the Precious Metals pullback is:
1. Do we have a failed dcl with that small day 7 spike above the 10sma & peak?
2. Or do we have a dcl forming here (We should see a close above the 10sma)? We should know this week if the USD is rejected (or not) at the 10sma.
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THE WEEKLY USD is in the middle of a sell off into a 3 yr cycle low. That low is not really due until around Jan 2024, so I am expecting that more downside here will push Gold, Silver, and Miners into new highs.
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GOLD DAILY: Gold broke out from that triangle / pennant consolidation. If the USD bounces this week, we could see…
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GOLD – If the USD bounces this week, we could see a dip that simply becomes roughly a day 32 back test and dcl. If the USD rallied, it is possible for Gold to drop to the 50sma (not shown), but we’ll just have to wait and see what the USD does from here. If it rolls over and drops further, Gold can just climb.
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THE DAILY SILVER has been climbing that 8 ema like a champ! It is day 20 or day 22, depending on which low you start with (the last 2 lows are the same price). We were buying silver stocks and Silver at the 50sma a couple of weeks ago just in case it decided to play catch up (Lagging Gold stocks were also mentioned as a buy). I do not recommend selling those, because when Silver runs strong, it can really take off unexpectedly.
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THE SILVER WEEKLY CHART shows that price has broken out for the downtrend. Again, when Silver starts to run, it often picks up speed. Yes, we can see dips and chop, but take a look at that 2020 run. You just don’t want to be empty handed if you get one of those LARGE weekly surges higher. Another failed bank could do that.
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GDX has also been playing catch up as expected. With Gold up near the highs and forming that pennant, it just seemed reasonable that Gold Miners would catch up, and they seem to be doing that now. That last dip was a back test of the downtrend break out in technical analysis.
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In a recent report I pointed out how in 2016, The GDX ran higher, chopped sideways in March with a pennant consolidation, and then continued higher. It dipped again in May and then ran very quickly with a few Gaps higher into August. While this happened though, some stocks ran straight up and away and I showed CDE as an example…
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While this happened though, some stocks ran straight up and away and I showed CDE as an example. I did this because I am seeing some miners now also currently just running away, so buy and hold is working for many of these.
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I did this because I am seeing some miners now also currently just running away, so buy and hold is working for many of these. AU, OR, HMY, GFI, etc have been running strong.
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WEEKLY GDX -After that drop in Feb/March stalled, it went sideways at the lows for 3 weeks, and then the 2 Bank failures reversed and pushed Miners higher. So far we have 4 weeks of gains and the 2nd leg of this run is unfolding. The first run peaked after 4 months. If I use the 8 ema as a floor…
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THE GDX WEEKLY has not broken below the 8 ema in the past runs, so If I use the 8 ema as a floor it seems unlikely that GDX will drop below $32. A dip there would become a ‘buy with a stop’. If the USD bounces next week and Miners pull back, watch the $32 for GDX for a reversal or support.
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So all of the Bullish set ups that we had in the General Markets and Precious metals remain bullish in the long term charts, and with the announced production cuts by Opec last week, Oil and Oil stocks seem to have bottomed too (They were due for an ICL, but those gaps up out of the lows may be break away gaps). Enjoy your Sunday downtime!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN: Looking at a live shot of Bitcoin on Sunday 7 am ET, it seems to also be forming a bullish consolidation / pennant, so we’ll see if it has the follow through higher. If it breaks higher the Crypto stocks should put in another run higher too. They have been consolidating recent gains for weeks.
