YAY! Its a FED MINUTES DAY!
Nov 19, Wednesday
Well, Fed minutes, thats always fun! Why? Whatever you see happen this morning may be undone by the close. Or subtle moves may become explosive moves, and I mean in either direction, right? So Today I’m just doing a this report to point out a couple of things of interest. Likely you noticed that We have been discussing Metals and Miners a lot lately. That is because I have wanted to walk you through a day by day bottoming process and show you what I look for. It isnt reassuring to just hear someone say “GO LONG” and you blindly jump in only to get knocked back out. This way we have now already discussed important areas to watch and with the fed minutes we are prepared for any volatility that may follow. I also want to point out a couple of other interesting areas , so lets hit a couple of charts. I will start with reminders to prepare us for Fed Minutes.
To hear AUDIO click here / Then click ‘download’, then click OPEN . when U hear audio – return to follow the charts here
GOLD NOV 7 – Pre mkt I saw a shake out in real time, so I pointed out an important part of the “Shake Out” was to recover June 2013 lows of $1179 again on a weekly basis, using this chart in the weekend report.
After days of volatility , we see that…
GOLD WEEKLY – this is a worst case scenario. IF FED MINUTES causes a slam down in Gold we have 2 ways to look at it and not panic
1. Gold can drop almost $20 and do no damage
2. Gold can drop & recover by Friday and the weekly chart is still a shake out/ recovery (WILL YOU BE BUYING?)
I can see 1 of 2 possible things happening.
1. They DO sell it off to shake out newer unsure hands, and scoop up more shares cheaper (less likely)
2. They blow it out upside in a big way, because the 10WMA is directly overhead and often acts like resistance. Also it has the features of a “LOCK OUT”. Many have still been too afraid to enter and now they are waiting until after Fed Minutes. A LOCK OUT wont let new buyers in and FED MINUTES may cause weak hands to sell BEFORE the minutes come out. I think this is likely. How can you fool the most people? I think it has already occurred with 2 consecutive shake outs on Friday (when no one wants to buy & Hold thru the weekends) . Now people are watching the train leave the station and want to wait until after fed minutes to enter in a safer place. A pullback. A LOCK OUT move doesnt come back and pick up those that it leaves behind. We may see volatility, but we may NOT see a pullback smooth enough to buy.
EX: GDXJ MAY LOWS – started slow & just picked up . no real pullback to get in. Buyers were left behind (Ignore writing on the chart)
NEXT I just wanted to show you some more interesting set ups. ( side-note: I mentioned in AUDIO that a couple of readers said “Just post 2 or 3 charts, so its less confusing” After saying that I got a LOT of emails saying, “NO! Dont reduce the # of charts. I like when you find a sector and have 10 decent set ups, because it gives me confidence that the sector is bullish too. I Like choices.” ) . I will go with the majority on that, because I believe that is best. If the housing sector looks bullish and I show 10 stocks setting up, you can pick the best 1 or 2. some like the one above the 50sma. Others like the one just breaking above the 10sma. Others want a MACD cross with a price pop. I can point those various happenings out, but trust me….posting 10 stocks does NOT mean that I AM SAYING BUY THEM ALL. I dont buy them all, but my confidence is boosted if its a sector wide set up)..
As I am invested in Metals / Miners , the corner of my eye is still watching ENERGY STOCKS for opportunities of buying a higher low or sideways move. Same with URANIUM stocks and COAL stocks. REMX looks interesting in a bottoming type way ,So I see various commodities looking like they are bottoming , and I see the Dollar still due for a rest. Notice this next sector of interest.
Notice the similarities.
-A SLAM DOWN in Summer 2013
-A run up into this summer
– Sell off to a higher low & “Signs of a turn higher”
AGU WKLY – leads the way higher
POT WKLY – recovering & follow what AGU did, former highs?
MOS WKLY – starting to recover, buy & hold candidate for my readers that like longer term holds.
IPI – Just getting going. Buy above the 10WMA and it could run up nicely
These could be longer term holds , since they look like they are just getting going , up from a double bottom, higher low. NOTE: I would always do some due diligence , such as “Find out when earnings are released and be ready for surprise”, etc
POT & MOS have really showed signs of strength, High volume POPS , so they may need a pullback to their moving averages before buying. Notice their daily charts look pretty good too.
This shows me a sector being bought up, so it may be on your watch-list as they pullback. (IPI is close to a buy here) .
SO- With all of the above considered, IPI looks like a BUY. The weekly is almost over the 10WMA, earnings are out a couple weeks ago. Capitulation at lows and recovery.
ALSO setting back up for a buy (for those avoiding P.M. stocks at this point) are
WLT and ANR
OK- that’s your morning distraction to keep us from obsessing over WHAT THE FED MINUTES will do. I am BULLISH on this GOLD and I think we had a shake out & recovery behind us, A possible LOCK OUT is in process and the MINERS individually look really nice. IF you are aware of how cycles work & missed this initial move, there will be 1/2 cycle lows and a daily cycle low to allow another opportunity to get in after a rest or even a pullback. I will be watching many stocks and will post good buying entries in the future. IF I was looking to buy here, I would consider some that havent taken off yet. Some stocks like ANV have doubled off of the lows already , IAG is up over 70% now , but I pointed out EXK, PAAS, SAND,EGO earlier in the week as buys. Currently AUY and AG and a few others look ready to join in, but arent extended yet. AFter the FED Minutes…you may see a pullback? Stay sharp and best wishes. I will likely post tomorrow about what I saw after the Fed minutes volatility dies down .
Best wishes, thanks for checking in!
~ALEX
Good morning ALEX….. is there an ETF from AGU, POT, MOS, IPI ?
Are you thinking more the miners and gold will take off after the FED, or you think we go first down and then up!
Thanks a lot ALEX !!!
The ETF “MOO” represents agriculture
Good morning ALEX….. is there an ETF from AGU, POT, MOS, IPI ?
Are you thinking more the miners and gold will take off after the FED, or you think we go first down and then up!
Thanks a lot ALEX !!!
The ETF “MOO” represents agriculture
Thanks for taking us BACK INTO THE FUTURE, Alex. I don’t know which month into the future would my 1650$ fare price reach, will ya tell us please?
1194.26 apex support lost?
Thanks for taking us BACK INTO THE FUTURE, Alex. I don’t know which month into the future would my 1650$ fare price reach, will ya tell us please?
1194.26 apex support lost or they don’t want anyone asking for free rides?
Whoa!
Wèeeeeeeeee…what a roller coastal slide… Going up NOT so soon.
Freaking chart
Whoa!
Wèeeeeeeeee…what a roller coastal slide… Going up NOT so soon till new freaking longs bail out?
Freaking chart
all about a poll en suisse
A non-event is priced in. Can’t fight the IMF cohorts, can they? So shorts got ran over.
all about a poll en suisse
A non-event is priced in. Can’t fight the IMF cohorts, can they? So shorts got ran over.
Alex thanks! Great call on IPI up 7% today no pos here..
Its a beautiful thing when the charts tell you in advance what they’d like to do ; )
Alex thanks! Great call on IPI up 7% today no pos here..
Its a beautiful thing when the charts tell you in advance what they’d like to do ; )
Alex… would you take a look at RIC-T ? Double top, means this we go first down and then up?
No…it has a minimum price projections of $3.80 , It should reach that target on the initial move , but can do more.
Alex… would you take a look at RIC-T ? Double top, means this we go first down and then up?
No…it has a minimum price projections of $3.80 , It should reach that target on the initial move , but can do more.
A short question Alex….. do you think we are still in a good position with the Gold charts?
Is the question at hand here a $1179 support?
Thats the 1st level of support. There is more below, but 1179 is where I would like to see GOLD close on a wkly for the shake out to hold
Also any new thoughts on coal? I have been stalking BTU and went to buy but broke down below support so held off. Wasnt sure ifmwas buying opportunity or the fun was over already.
I would let it play out another day. ANR dropped too, but there is a trend line possibly holding it up. If you look at what ANR did on OCT 30…it is exactly what BTU did today. That DOESNT mean it’ll end the same, I would definitely wait and see with BTU. It may bottom again. If it holds and reverses, you might get a good price of $10.
BTU had a nice move up today and back above support. Missed it. Have my funds tied up in a biotech that is going nowhere. Probably going to dump and try energy instead!
SO far its ok… Its above the 10sma, but obviously needs watching
A short question Alex….. do you think we are still in a good position with the Gold charts?
Is the question at hand here a $1179 support?
Thats the 1st level of support. There is more below, but 1179 is where I would like to see GOLD close on a wkly for the shake out to hold
SO far its ok… Its above the 10sma, but obviously needs watching
Last time POG was here in october NUGT was $20. Closed today at $14. Just Can not have any sense of Gold market for goodness sake…
NUGT is a 3x etf and decay is inherent. Even in a sideways move of Gold , NUGT will lose to the price of Gold
Last time POG was here in october NUGT was $20. Closed today at $14. Just Can not have any sense of Gold market for goodness sake…
NUGT is a 3x etf and decay is inherent. Even in a sideways move of Gold , NUGT will lose to the price of Gold
Well at least we don’t have to worry about being locked out anymore. Puts some pressure on bulls to show something – best case is strong move early tomorrow and solid close on weekly. If we get another day down like today most will have to eject out of their positions as we have learned from the recent past not to trust. I felt a disturbance in the force this morning so hedged my positions with a little DUST. But not enough and sold out too early. Ready to add but need a little ‘show me’ action first.
Well at least we don’t have to worry about being locked out anymore. Puts some pressure on bulls to show something – best case is strong move early tomorrow and solid close on weekly. If we get another day down like today most will have to eject out of their positions as we have learned from the recent past not to trust. I felt a disturbance in the force this morning so hedged my positions with a little DUST. But not enough and sold out too early. Ready to add but need a little ‘show me’ action first.
Also any new thoughts on coal? I have been stalking BTU and went to buy but broke down below support so held off. Wasnt sure ifmwas buying opportunity or the fun was over already.
I would let it play out another day. ANR dropped too, but there is a trend line possibly holding it up. If you look at what ANR did on OCT 30…it is exactly what BTU did today. That DOESNT mean it’ll end the same, I would definitely wait and see with BTU. It may bottom again. If it holds and reverses, you might get a good price of $10.
BTU had a nice move up today and back above support. Missed it. Have my funds tied up in a biotech that is going nowhere. Probably going to dump and try energy instead!
Would gold get to close => 1225 (after reclaiming 1994 apex) this week Alex?
I had $1226 first target in my report as an A-B-C-D target, remember?
Ya…I thought I read you on that…………wow…….you really have been to the future. See the nice APEXes
After 1330, new apexes are higher and higher
Would gold get to close => 1225 (after reclaiming 1994 apex) this week Alex?
I had $1226 first target in my report as an A-B-C-D target, remember?
Ya…I thought I read you on that…………wow…….you really have been to the future. See the nice APEXes
After 1130, new apexes are higher and higher