Tuesday December 29th
We have another holiday shortened week, so the reports are going to reflect that. In each report I will briefly cover areas of the markets sectors that have changed or may stand out as important. That will be accompanied by coverage of a few trade ideas. Many of us have several swing trades or short term trades already in place ( Miners, EV, Biotechs, some may even have MJ Stocks, etc), so I may discuss a few trade ideas ast he week goes on too.
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We have 3 full trading days left with the markets closed Friday. The final week of the year can do a slow melt up, with a large number of traders ( including sellers) still away on vacation. We’ll see, and now lets take a look at our charts…
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NASDAQ – The General Markets did push higher Monday and I just wouldn’t be surprised if they move a little higher each day.
XOP – Oil and Oil Stocks dropped, but this still may be day 4 of a new daily cycle. A sideways chop & Tag of the 34 sma isn’t out of the question while holding the current day 36 low in place. This has yet to break & close above the 10sma, confirming a dcl though.
GOLD moved higher and sold off as the day went forward. I would still expect it to break out this week, since we are seeing price pinched with 2 trend lines. So far Gold is well off of the lows, but this choppy price action has many doubting Gold.
GOLD / USD RATIO – I had this chart for the weekend report and forgot to post it, so I just wanted to show you that The GOLD vs USD RATIO has broken out and this often takes place after an ICL is in place. Even if the USD bounced and Gold dropped this has a lot of wiggle room.
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SILVER broke out yesterday and Silver stocks did much better than Gold stocks. I have been saying all along that I am personally investing in Silver stocks ( at least first) as they will probably lead the way higher . I have also mentioned that I own AAGFF, CDE, SILEF, EXK, AXU, GPL, etc. I really do not own any Gold Miners yet, though I do see some that I would probably buy if I wasn’t also trading in other sectors at this time.
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GDX popped and dropped after tagging the 50sma on day 22. I have drawn a possible channel here and it IS possible to break out & run as we head into day 30 or so, and then dip into a dcl. I have already explained that in past reports…
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GDX : People HATE when the first daily cycle is choppy like this, but it has happened in the past and then the 2nd daily cycle can be vey strong. We could see something like this since the timing for a dcl is actually still over 2 weeks away.
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I have had a lot of stock picks and set ups over the past couple of weeks, so for todays report I just want to discuss some of those trades or their set ups to help some readers manage those positions. Enjoy your Tuesday trading!
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~ALEX
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IN MY LAST REPORT I POINTED OUT THAT SILVER STOCKS LOOKED SET UP TO CONTINUE HIGHER AS OF THE CLOSE ON THURSDAY: THEY CLOSED NEAR THE HIGHS WHILE SILVER ITSELF PUT IN A DOJI.
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FOR THE AXU I WROTE: AXU also reversed and closed near the highs after a bounce off of the 8 ema. This seems like bullish price action to me, closing at the highs with Silver putting in a Doji.
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So AXU continued higher Monday and many Silver stocks did the same. That is good, but some did pop & reverse lower, so let’s take a look at CDE for example…
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CDE popped and dropped. Am I concerned? No , and I’ll show you why…
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AXU AGAIN: Take a look at how AXU reversed at the 8 ema after a small consolidation. Now let me show you why this may be exactly what we want to see.
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UUUU – Take a look at how the Uranium Stocks moved out of their long choppy consolidations. This is exactly what I hope we are going to see with the Miners. It looks straight up, but it has the occasional drop & chop over to the 8 ema…
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URG was not acting quite a strong. URG chopped a bit more, but is still climbing the 10 or 13 sma. So an occasional down day or 2 in the Miners does not ruin a bull run by any means.
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GPL moved higher Monday after tagging the 50sma on a back test. This was a buy in prior reports and remains a low risk area to add. I posted this in the morning and GPL dropped a but by the end of the day, but the set up remains healthy, especially above the 50sma and this could also still climb up the 8 ema or 10sma as it leaves its consolidation behind.
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SILEF is a cheaper Miner that I have owned for a long time (Currently 33 cents). I like it because it did not pull back very much during this consolidation after running from 7 cents to 45 cents.
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SPAZF also put in a nice POP yesterday while many of the bigger Gold stocks lagged. The Juniors are perking up and I do expect that the bigger ones will follow after Gold breaks free above that overhead down trend. At this point, if you see a Miner acting like SPAZF, breaking convincingly above th 50sma? It should be considered a buy, especially if it dips to a back test from here.
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Yes, WWR is still ‘O.K.’ I seem to get that question when a trade that I enter doesn’t take off higher within a day, but if I say that I am taking this as a swing trade, that means that it could take a day, a few days, or even over a week to play out as expected, AS LONG AS IT DOESN’T BREAK DOWN. WWR, OPTT, RIDE, and a few others fall into that category. Slowly moving, but not breaking down at this point.
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WRR is above the 50sma which is around $5, but it is a bit choppy & maybe boring. The upside potential is big compared to the downside risk. A stop cuts losses, but this could run to $10 or $15 from here. That is 100-200% gains vs getting stopped out below the 50sma. Position size is the best way to minimize risk too. You can start small and if it takes off you can always add on the way up.
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I own OPTT : We bought this around the 50sma reversal. It popped up about 10% yesterday but then dropped into the close. Often I will hear that it is weak and unable to rally. Does that Mean that there is a problem with it?…
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OPTT: Here I wanted to point out that in the past I have seen OPTT Pop & Drop, and then still rally. Also…
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OEG – Looks fairly similar to OPTTs set up now, and it also ‘Popped and Dropped’ a few times last week, but…
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OEG Popped over 50% yesterday and closed up 46%, so the ‘Pop & Drop‘ does not by itself indicate that there is a problem. As you can see below, This OEG set up looks a lot like OPTT set up below it.
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RIDE – Popped & dropped Monday only closing up 1%. It bounced off of the 200sma in October and remains above the 50sma and this is a company that could easily go from the 50sma here ($20.50) to the recent highs of $30+ if the sector remains hot. The volume surges add to the bullishness.
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NOVN was a buy on Dec 3 in the 50 cent area. It popped along the 50sma. This is a nice base…
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NOVN has slowly been climbing along and I still own it. Even a gradual climb back up to former highs will be over a 100% move from the buy Dec 3.
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NOVN WEEKLY is a solid base and the actual potential for this to run to may be more than just the July highs.
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DO YOU LIKE BIG TO PARK SOME MONEY BUY & HOLD STYLE IN TECH?
RECENTLY I POSTED THAT SOME OF THE LARGER TECH STOCKS ( FANG) LOOK TO HAVE CONSOLIDATED GAINS AND READY TO RUN AGAIN. I AM STILL SEEING THAT:
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I POSTED AAPL ON DEC 16 as a break out & back test buy. That was a buy…
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AAPL has been choppy but is now ready to break to new highs, so…
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AMZN is also a bullish set up ( a Buy ) as it breaks free here. This has been Covid-proof too. For those long term investors that just want to park some money BUY & HOLD or in a retirement fund, this may be your answer, or…
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FB also looks like it is finishing up a multi-month consolidation too. If we continue to see Bullish Markets and Market Rotation, FB could run from here to $500+ over time, roughly a 100% move.
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BITCOIN TAKING IT STEP BY STEP:
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BITCOIN: This run & consolidation gave me roughly a $26,000+ target, but then…
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BITCOIN: This midpoint triangle along the way to $26,000 gave me roughly a $28,000 target that I said might just run to the round number of $30,000. Well…
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BITCOIN did hit $28,422 and started a new consolidation yesterday. This now offers a new target of roughly $32,000 if it breaks out higher again. These targets are not a guarantee, but they are a reliable guide along the way. That said, eventually you do get a larger consolidation that forms, and that can happen at any time after such a strong move.
