Friday December 4th
Note: Today is The Jobs Report and the markets are reacting a bit to ‘news’ this late in the daily cycle. We are due for a dip to a dcl, but the Markets are also quite strong, so we may just get intraday choppiness. Look at the Theme picture for the report. Everyone knows that even bull Markets & Sectors aren’t just a straight line higher. Let me show you what I saw Yesterday.
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SPX – The markets remain bullish, but we do have a doji. This is basically indecision. Last night as we entered the close and everything was just fine, suddenly PFIZER announced that they would only be delivering 1/2 of the expected doses of their vaccine and the markets simply crashed intraday. Let me show you what I saw…
I grabbed this chart of THE SPY as it crashed and posted it in the live trading area. When this headline was released after 3 p.m. Eastern Time, the Markets just gave up the gains in a flush. You can see that after the initial crash, it started to bounce back, so it may be a temporary reaction, but we do have the jobs report today. This was the Headline:
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Pfizer Slashed Its Original Covid-19 Vaccine Rollout Target After Supply-Chain Obstacles
Pharma giant expects to ship half the doses it had originally planned after finding raw materials in early production didn’t meet its standards.
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OIL: Lets make it simple and be clear here with a picture first ...
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WTIC has a Bull Flag and remains bullish. Oils daily cycles can last over 50 days, so day 22 can just be a 1/2 cycle low. Oil stocks were higher again too.
GOLD has climbed up to a resistance zone and stalled. If we have an ICL in place then this should work its way higher sooner than later.
1. Gold has recovered the 200sma , but now …
2. Gold needs to recover the shake out and the 50sma too. These will act as resistance on the way up.
3. It should not have a big problem doing so as we move out of an ICL. If this is just another daily cycle low (Less Likely, we are 8 months out from the March ICL and overdue for an ICL) this would probably struggle & fail at the 50sma.
SILVER looks like a shake out & recovery in a Bullish Triangle.
GDX pulled back yesterday and almost back tested the 10sma. The 200sma was slightly lost, but I am not worried about that really. Let me show you how I am looking at this…
GDX did a shake out from the 200sma & recovered, but it also lost this channel and regained it. I think that GDX can drop to the 10sma and even if it gets to the lower channel line that would be ok with me. It is the recent lows that become the important area and should not be taken out.
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Today is Friday, the last day of the trading week. I always mention to my readers that if you feel uncomfortable in any positions or even feel too light in another area, this is a good time to adjust your portfolio and rest better over the weekend 🙂 Is this a dip in Miners that you’d like to add on? Do you own a stock that is so extended you think you should take lock some of those gains in and let the rest ride? These are things that I think about on Fridays.
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Enjoy your Friday trading!
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~ALEX
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AAGFF– I have mentioned often that this is a Miner that I have owned for a long time now. Notice that it has had a sideways consolidation, but really doesn’t have a long series of lower lows. I like that strength during a gold sell down. Also during Golds Sell off last Friday and Monday ( Gold was down $20+ each day), AAGFF never lost the 50sma during that time. If it doesn’t sell off in a long Gold sell off, what will it do in a Gold rally? This was a very healthy consolidation during an ICL dip.
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AAGFF WEEKLY – So I will show you my thinking here on the weekly chart (and I’ll also mention one concern that I have, but I also really do not think is a valid concern). I see this as a Megaphone or broadening top pattern. A break out higher could be very bullish. So what is the concern?
This is an example that I have of Chevrons megaphone pattern and you can see that it dropped one more time early in the megaphone. The difference is that this was a daily chart and mine is a weekly of AAGFF. Also we are at an ICL for Gold, so AAGFF really should be ready to break out. I’m thinking that time seems to be sufficient for a break out higher in AAGFF, plus …
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Notice that AAGFF is at the TOP of the bull horn at the time of an ICL. For a Miner to be sitting at the top of a bullhorn at an ICL sounds quite Bullish to me.
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KSHB is breaking out with volume here as it continues to make slow and steady progress day after day. It was a buy over the 34 sma & 200sma and I have mentioned this in the live area a few times, but I don’t know if I added into the reports yet? I think that the potential is good here. I thought that I read months ago that this company sells CBD Infused beverages and is growing. Their company profile says : KSHB is a premier provider of ancillary products and services to the legal cannabis and CBD industries
IN OCTOBER & NOVEMBER I had pointed out some of the bases that the MJ Sector formed were looking very bullish. The spreading Legalization of Medical Marijuana was very bullish for this sector (And recreational use was legalized in many areas too), but then things died down and bases were formed. Since my pointing out these bases many have made big %-Moves. TLRY, ACB, HEXO, OGI, CGC, CRON APHA, etc all remain Bullish, but also a bit choppy and difficult to ride. They are bullishly rising though. Let’s continue our discussion of a few of these bases of the smaller beaten down MJ Stocks.
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SPRWF WEEKLY – After the elections and a Biden win, the MJ sector was likely to stay Bullish. On November 6 I Used this chart when SPRWF was 10-11 cents showing it as a Base with good potential over time. It was easy to picture a run to 20 cents over time (100%) . The 10 week MA was at 11 cents and a close over that is usually considered bullish…
I also pointed out that SPRWF has big upside potential if it ever (gradually or eventually) returns to where it used to trade. Even a small ‘buy & hold’ position could run up 1000% over time.
SPRWF currently has moved up 50% in a nice slow manner out of this base. It may find resistance at the 200sma, but some of these are just spiking & slicing right through resistance ( look at charts of MRMD, CNBX, CBDS, LBUY, TRTC, etc). We’ll see how this plays out, I think that it also could ‘spike’, but my point is that this was also a good pick in a base and is rising bullishly as expected.
I have mentioned several former runners that ‘based out’ bullishly as potential gainers again as the Covid 2nd surge takes place. NOVN, BIOC, HTBX, RGLS, INO, etc. etc. are on our watch list. Yesterday I bought NOVN and mentioned it in the live area as it started to move on the intraday charts….
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On the daily chart you can see that NOVN popped and pulled back a little, but I mentioned in the live area that I was swing trading this and decided to hold on overnight. Why did I think that this is still going higher?…
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NOVN 5 minute chart: When I am looking to Buy one of these or if I buy and want to know if I should sell, I always flip to my intraday charts for guidance if I have time. I posted this saying that it looked like a Bullish triangle and should break higher.
NOVN started to act correctly and climb higher, now forming a rounding bottom base. This was when I said that I would hold overnight, because it is telling me that after a normal pullback intraday, Buyers seem to be stepping in.
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I wanted to recommend this stock today, but as I write the report, NOVN has popped in after hours by 20%. I don’t know if that Pop will hold through the morning, but it again shows buyers are stepping in. If it doesn’t gap open I consider it a buy, if it gaps open that is tough to buy safely since it would be up 30% from Thursday. On the weekly chart a gap open could gap this above the resistance area of the 10 week ma and a down trend is breaking.
INO was in a report in November as a buy (I bought it). It has been struggling at the 200sma, but I do not think that this will hold it down. Unless we have some bad news released, I still think that INO will break out and run from this flat base.
FROM YESTERDAYS REPORT:I still like the set ups on BIOC & CHFS too. With a flat base like these, we just need a catalyst to get these running.
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BIOC is a long base that seems to be starting to push higher, so I keep an eye on these base set ups. This tiny move was up 6%, but may have much more upside if it starts to climb out of this base.
