Thursday November 12th – Going Nowhere Fast

 

SPX – The General Markets gapped open on Monday, closed that gap, and reversed higher as a back test. They remain bullishly aligned.

 

WTIC –  Oil also has been running higher out of the recent low. Since the last ICL was in March, that could be an ICL for Oil, and as mentioned in a recent report, the Oil stocks are finally moving with Oil out of their recent lows too.

 

 

XOP – So we finally have a trade set up in the Oil stocks and I bought ERF and GTE. The next dip would be the first real ‘Buy the dip’ opportunity after the double bottom low in the XOP too. Take a look at charts of LPI, APA, AROC, MRO,  TUSK, PUMP, VLO, ERF, and so on. Start a check list and watch for that dip to support. I will likely cover those in future reports.

 

AROC is one of my favorites and I missed it this time. You may recall that I bought it at the last low, but it just chopped sideways.  Well now it  has already rocketed higher as a leader after a small pause (Pennant) last week.

 

YESTERDAY I DISCUSSED THE CURRENT SET UP IN GOLD, SILVER, AND THE MINERS.  BASICALLY I SHOWED HOW WE HAVE SIMPLY RETURNED TO WHERE WE WERE BEFORE THE FED MEETING. THEY ARE CHOPPY AND WAITING FOR CONFIRMATION OF A LOW. WE ARE CLOSE.  LET’S TAKE ANOTHER LOOK…

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GOLD – After a false break out Gold headed to recent lows, yet did not undercut them. I wish they would, it could give us a final low on day 35 (Thursday).  If it breaks higher, the dcl could be on day 32 and we’d be on a 2nd daily cycle.  Basically, THIS IS STILL CHOPPY, but the stochastics reached oversold again.

 

SILVER has a day 25 higher low, but is that the dcl or is another drop into the dcl ahead? We cannot be sure with that false break out and we have all seen how Silver looks just fine & suddenly drops sharply (Red arrows), so again we are in a sideways consolidation now overdue for an ICL low.

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Same chart: I will say this: With that day 32 high, this looks like a messy choppy first daily cycle out of an ICL (September). That would indicate that we should get a higher low as a dcl and the second daily cycle is where the upside rally will take place. A day 32 high makes that right translated, not normal for a final daily cycle.  That also applies to Gold, but Gold is Right AT the September lows.

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GDX – Noteworthy with the GDX is that we did get a higher high with that false break out and that usually indicates that we have the ICL as of the final red arrow.  It obviously followed Gold & Silver on their drop, but some Miners are holding up better than others.  In my observation, I feel that the ICL is in place here, but with this choppiness and the way Miners followed Gold & Silver down, we could test the lows.  In fact, look at the chart, we are basically testing those lows with a higher low already.

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You can see high volume flushing of sellers at each dcl and we have high volume with this weeks drop, but did you notice that it is drying up as of yesterday?  I am viewing this as Choppy and frustrating , but most likely the ICL is in for GDX and that low should not be broken (Can be tested). This would be day 9.  So…

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So here we have BARRICK GOLD.  They released earnings and it looked much improved and this is how it was treated.  New lows, but at least it put in a reversal .  Barrick is on sale and you can buy it for the June prices. At $25? I would expect this to be $50 at the IC High.

 

NEM  – On the opposite end of things Newmont dropped to the 50sma and reversed higher yesterday. This looks like a normal run out of the lows and a back test of the 50sma. It has been Choppy but at least this looks more like normal bullish action.

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If Newmont moves higher and that reversal in Barrick and a few other Miners also pushes higher, I would expect GDX to put in a higher low for now too. The lows may be in for GDX & GDXJ, but it remains choppy and difficult for many Miners. Some are at the lows ( Barrick for example) others are choppy  and trying to find support. I am holding several Mines, but I am not leveraged at this point.

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UPDATE: GOLD LIVE 6:30 am –  With spot Gold, the lowest low was still that low in September. If we never break that low, we have a day 32 peak and a day 32 low (dcl) on a very choppy first daily cycle. If we undercut that low, the day 32 surge was an anomaly and the ICL will be at the new low. It is VERY CLOSE.  Day 32 came with about $2 of breaking the September lows.

 

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~ALEX

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Solar stocks dropped but remain bullish with a consolidation after an amazing run higher. This should be a buy area for JKS, but it also may continue to chop sideways for a little longer – See also SPWR, CSIQ, SOL, ENPH, FSLR, etc

 

 

I am keeping my eyes on EV & BATTERY, CLEAN ENERGY, ETC: These should do well under a Biden clean energy administration, so lets look at this area again, after a recent consolidation.

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PPSI -After an extreme Pop, the gains are always consolidated. This is why I sell these Pops and NEVER chase them.  After some sideways basing out, they often do return to the highs over time.  We do not usually see the same extreme 400-600% move in a day or 2, we usually see more of a cup formation and that is what we may be seeing form here. This can be a buy & hold ( a swing trade)above that 50sma.

 

SOLO is a swing trade that was mentioned at the 50sma and it continues to do well. It has moved from the recent low of $2.50 to $4 and is acting bullishly at the 10sma. This is also a swing trade (buy & hold).

 

BLNK is a ‘Battery Charging” play that I mentioned earlier. It is now trying to break out from a down trend after reversing at with a higher low. We’ve discussed many plays in this area and I do plan on keeping an eye on others as they pull back or set up properly.

 

WWR has been a buy and I still like it.  Notice that this is similar to the PPSI chart. The potential is $4 to over $10 again over time .  It is a swing trade.

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IS URANIUM GOING TO BE PART OF AN ENERGY TRADE UNDER BIDEN?   MAYBE THE BIDEN PUSH IS WHAT THEY NEED?  THE SET UP IS BULLISH, BUT I DID RECOMMEND THESE A WHILE AGO AND THEY ALSO HAVE BEEN DREADFULLY CHOPPY SO FAR.  LET’S LOOK AT CURRENT SET UPS.

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NXE – You can see how painfully choppy this has been, but honestly, once they break out from chop like this, they can run.

 

UEC has increasing volume and has pushed above the 34 sma. It is a buy as it broke a downtrend too.

 

 

UUUU is above the 34 sma, broke a downtrend, and volume is increasing. It is a buy, but you have to admit that this consolidation has been brutal to us in the past. MAYBE these are finally ready to break out & run.

 

BIOC popped above  all of the moving averages after basing out and I bought it due to an intraday chart.  Then I was told that they release earnings today, but my position was small, so I held on. I like the set up lets see if it gets a pass or fail  🙂  My stop would be a tiny loss. A gap down would have me sell too.

 

GTE popped over the 50sma, as an energy trade breaking a downtrend.

 

THESE CHARTS ARE FROM YESTERDAYS REPORT:

Yesterday I mentioned that some Oil stocks were breaking out and I pointed out ERF as one that was still under the 50sma but looked ready to play catch up as a lagger.  I mentioned in the live area that I bought it.

 

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ERF broke out and started to move, so I posted this chart. It closed up 12%. Another one that resembles this is…

 

Another one that resembles ERF is WTI for example: I was looking for a company that had increasing volume and trying to break above that 50 sma. This may also be ready to break out.

 

CLNE broke out above the 50sma and I bought it & posted this in that live area too. It is still a buy and it is clean energy and that may be favorable under a Biden Presidency .