Tuesday October 13th – Following Through
NASDAQ – After a slow & steady start out of the lows, we saw a pretty strong push higher yesterday. This is bullish follow through and this allows you to raise a stop from the lows to the 50sma. Will that gap fill? It could fill with a dip to the 10sma. That could be a buy opportunity.
WTIC – Oil has remained choppy, as expected. It is battling resistance and the 50 & 200sma. So far, I don’t see any great trade set ups here, so I have personally avoided the choppiness.
XOP – The sell off in Oil & Gas as seen in the XOP & XLE has stopped and we saw a strong reversal candle at the lows last week. It was mentioned that THAT can be bought with a tight stop and then you’d have to see how it plays out ( Solid low or temporary?).
.
USD -I have been waiting for the next dcl in the USD, and on day 28, we are within the timing for one. So far this is a Right translated daily with a day 17 peak. A USD bounce here COULD send Gold lower, we’ll have to wait and see.
.
GOLD paused under the 50 sma on day 11 of this daily cycle.
.
EDIT : GOLD 6 A.M. Today – We broke a downtrend and it also looks like this might just be a back test. To be honest, this looks bullish, but as discussed in the weekend report, it seems like we should have 1 more drop to find the ICL ( LOW) in Gold, so time will tell. If you bought some miners, just use stops.
GDX has paused under the 50sma too ( GDXJ is above it). I see a gap so even if this is a bullish set up, we could get this pause and a pull back / gap fill before breaking higher. This also may roll over if the USD bounces and Gold drops so we are still looking for clues and simply using a stop on Miners.
In the weekend report I posted charts of AUY, USAS, EXK, and so on. Some Miners did absolutely nothing yesterday, but some of the smaller juniors and explorers are also looking interesting in the bigger picture, so I just wanted to point out 1 or 2 so you can see how they have progressed after their strong runs higher.
.
ELYGF is one that I strongly recommended for weeks back when it was chopping sideways at 20 cents+ in late 2019. You may recall that recently I was also pointing out a box pattern consolidation with $1 as a low in August. I wasn’t saying that it was a buy yet, due to the ‘timing’, but that the $1 area might be the lows as this churns sideways, so we could look for that when a low came due ( ICL).
.
ELYGF by Sept 8 was at those lows again, but it also looked like it could visit the 200sma if those lows broke down. NOTICE THAT THIS 200SMA WOULD BE ABOUT 80 cents.
ELYGF: That low was broken and 80 cents ( the 200sma area) was visited. It has now bounced back above the $1.00 area and up to the 50 sma. This Royalty company went to 1/2 price and someone that wanted to own this could at least start a starter position, but just know that a little downside is possible if Gold sells down to an ICL and you could add to that position.
TDRRF #1 – Tudor has moved off of the lows in October and this one is 50 / 50 as far as this consolidation goes. Let me explain. IF Gold has an ICL ahead, I would expect the lower trend line to be visited. IF the lows are in?…
TDRRF#2 – If Golds ICL was mild and in place, Tudor may have put in a consolidation low at the end of September and this current chop is a bull flag. So faced with that, if this is one that you wanted to own, the bull flag can be bought and you’d add on a drop or add on a pop.
.
So we have only had 1 day of trading since the weekend report, nothing has changed with the analysis of the precious metals sector, but we did see strong follow through in the general markets. We have discussed Many Many trades over the past several weeks and they are still getting follow through, with some stocks making new highs ( SQ, SAIL, TWTR, an especially our Solar stocks, Elec Vehicle, and SPAC plays ). Trading has been good, so we’ll look at a few newer trades below, since some of the others are getting a bit extended and may need to pull back ( Solars may be pulling back and it may be a buy the dip scenario, we’ll know better over time). Enjoy your Tuesday trading!
.
~ALEX
.
You likely recall that I posted several charts with this type of a set up. JD, SQ, SAIL, COUP, etc all began to break the down trend and I mentioned that they can form Cups. Let’s discuss these cup consolidations again briefly.
.
JD – These are the set ups that we have discussed as ‘possible ready to form a cup’. The gains on a cup alone can be great so I pointed out JD as a possible ‘cup formation’ candidate here for example and a buy, and…
JD – Now you see again that JD is following through and looks like a nice cup. The gains on a cup alone can be great for a portfolio, but I was asked by a reader that took this trade, “Is this now a ‘sell’? No, you can lock in gains if you wish, or sell some & ride some, but further follow through is possible too. Let me give an example…
SQ – In September I posted SQ for 3 days as it broke a downtrend as a buy that could form a cup.
I even said that it might do what APPS did- form a cup. Did it?
SQ then became one of our set ups that formed a cup, but it has just continued higher. So JD and a few of our other set ups could do that too.
APPS -formed a cup and broke out mid September, as posted here too. It could then back test , form a handle, or keep going.
APPS -now we see the cup, the back test, and then continued higher. So these can become BUY & HOLD if you don’t mind the choppiness. You can raise stops as price runs higher.
AAPL – I posted this in the live area under yesterdays report before the market opened yesterday. My point is that this set up is Bullish and is also the type that often forms a cup, so AAPL could be bought…
So I had grabbed charts of some of the former Big Tech stocks like AAPL & MSFT because the set up was similar to the others mentioned in past reports. These are the set ups that we have discussed as ‘possible ready to form a cup’. The gains on a cup alone can be great for a portfolio, but further follow through is possible too.
AAPL & MSFT – Unfortunately both gapped open yesterday & pushed higher. That makes them a bit harder to buy without risking a pull back. These may just run from here, but if you can find a way in ( gap fill as shown?), they are bullish set ups and can be bought.
DDOG – After a 3 month long consolidation, Datadog broke out and formed a small handle to the 10sma on a long cup. This will probably just bullishly run higher ( see the chart of SQ again), so this can be bought as more of a swing trade too ( Swing trade being buy & hold for a while, not just a 2 or 3 day trade).
GME BY REQUEST – I was asked about the drop in GME , so I drew that it is possibly dipping back to the 10sma area ( I drew the last candle on- that would represent today). It has had a strong run and that run can continue, so a reversal can be bought.
.
BITCOIN -broke out, as mentioned in the weekend report and this is often bullish for our list of Blockchain stocks that I’ve covered in the past. RIOT, MARA, HVBTF are favorite trades of mine here.
.
I DISCUSSED BUYING RIOT & MARA LAST WEEK, AND THIS WAS IN THE WEEKEND REPORT:
.
RIOT WEEKLY CLOSE UP – This was a nice weekly reversal above support, up 20% for the week. These move fast – This could easily double IF it is ready to go.
RIOT popped another 13% Monday. It broke above the 50sma and can just keep running, but if it back tests that 50sma, it would be a good place to add to current positions ( or start one if you missed it).
.
MARA is still a buy if you ask me. It is under the 50sma, and when it breaks above, it could trigger technical buyers to take positions. IF THIS RUNS TO RECENT AUGUST HIGHS? It is still a 100% gain from here. We rode that first run higher and it was a run from under $1 to $4.50+. I’ve been waiting for this to set up again, and this looks like the lows of a round base.
CGC – I recently mentioned that the MJ ETF & MJ Sector has turned Bullish. See charts of CGC, HEXO, CRON, GRWG, TLRY, etc
IGC is a Medical Marijuana company ( read the chart) that has a nice base forming too. This actually closed red yesterday ( I captured this chart at 10 am eastern time), but the sector is turning bullish rapidly. This company could do very well.
SOLO is an EV stock that has been basing out. It looks like it is trying to break higher as of Friday & Monday. It can be bought here, but just know that these are often a rough ride. We just rode WKHS for some excellent gains, but the dips were pretty big at times, making it hard to ride.
WRN ( a Copper company) -I bought WRN in September, but I got stopped out. It dropped sharply in September and now put in a double bottom an popped higher. I am not taking this trade, but it does look bullish and can be bought with a stop at the lows or even the 50 sma.
A LESSON?: JUST SOMETHING FOR YOU TO WATCH? When I see volume start to pour into a base, it grabs my attention. You may recall some of the trades that I was taking earlier this year and one of them was NAKD at 65 cents. Let me explain:
.
IN JUNE I POINTED OUT NAKD AS A FLAT BASE WITH LARGE VOLUME POPS. I STARTED BUYING IT AT 65 CENTS. I said that I was expecting a strong pop…
NAKD shot up from 65 cents to $2.50. I had been accumulating in that base mainly 67 cents to 72 cents and then it rocketed higher. We took several trades like this back then and gains for traders were excellent. Well..
NAKD has crashed down to 11 cents since then. It has formed a base again too. Buying this would be high risk/ high reward, not low risk, because it could go bankrupt or have some other problems. That is why it is a 12 cent stock, that said—-lets take a quick look.
.
NAKD is a flat mini-base and volume has been popping in. You can just keep an eye on this over the next week or so and see if it is going to Pop. It has been seeing strong volume and that leads me to believe that ‘something’ could be coming . It is high risk though, so I have a position, but I find it hard to recommend to the non-daytrader.
