Weekend Review October 10th
SPX WEEKLY – You may recall the 1 day ‘market crash reaction’ of the US Presidents tweet about putting the stimulus on hold. Looking at the weekly chart, you would never know that we had a mid week dip. This market closed at the highs Friday and remains bullish since calling a buy or ‘long’ at the reversal low.
NASDAQ WEEKLY – The Nasdaq also remains bullish. I mentioned Thursday that we may have even seen an ICL. Let’s review that…
I MENTIONED THURSDAY THIS IMPORTANT NOTE: We are within the timing for an ICL, and this dip shown below resembles the a-b-c drop in June 2019. That was an ICL 5 months after the crash. Lets take a look.
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THE SPX fell below the 50 sma after the crash in 2019 in an a-b-c drop. It then rallied (sometimes choppily) for the next 8 months, so that was the ICL at 5+ months. We may actually have an ICL in place here at 5+ months.
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OIL WEEKLY – With this chart back in July I pointed out that Oil was recovering but entered a ‘resistance area’. Oil may crawl sideways…
OIL WEEKLY SEPT 4th -Since then I have been pointing out that after an initial run out of the lows, many of the Rallies in the past would chop around and roll over, rather give us a nice slanted rally higher. In other words, the price of Oil was not getting more expensive and the trade in Oil stocks was put on hold.
OIL WEEKLY – This week we see that we have simply had weeks of sideways chop, as mentioned. It does also look a little like Oil could break higher here, so I am keeping an eye on this sector again. I do need to point out again with this chart that in the past choppy time periods, Oil has simply chopped sideways for over a year with false rallies lasting just 2 weeks or so. See the chart. If we get that here, it will remain boring, choppy, and frustrating.
OIL WEEKLY BIG PICTURE – Here I am reviewing what I mentioned in past reports, and so far it has played out in a similar fashion – choppy and difficult.
XOP WEEKLY -I am also still watching for a weekly break out in Oil stocks, but that has not happened yet either. Once this downtrend is broken, we may have a genuine bullish trade set up.
USD WEEKLY – The USD put in an ICL, and dipped down into a daily cycle low this past 2 weeks. That gave Gold a little breath of fresh air. NOW I WOULD have to expect the USD to bounce out of a dcl, and gold to drop, but last week as of Friday GOLD, SILVER, & The MINERS Did start to take on a more bullish look…
Last week GOLD, SILVER, & The MINERS Did start to take on a more bullish look. This makes it very tricky, because
1. The charts do not match the normal set up for an ICL to be in place in Gold.
2. The $USD is due for a bounce
3. Yet Gold does resemble an ICL, so…
I need to discuss the things that I see and then we simply have to watch how these things play out going forward. At this point I would have to say that it has become slightly mixed signals-leaning bullishly for the precious metals.
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GOLD DAILY – So we have a peak on day 9 and a triangle pattern where Price broke the downtrend. THIS is bullish and should not happen on a weak 5th daily cycle. So we have to wonder: Is this a first daily cycle. One thing that I look for with an ICL is a break of the downtrend, and we got that Friday. CONCLUSION HERE: This is a Bullish breakout.
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GOLD WEEKLY BIG PICTURE- This dip is milder than previous ICLs, even in the strong bull run of 2008 to 2011. I honestly expected a final daily cycle to drop down into the lows after the US elections, but again, the above chart turned bullish Friday. Look at the bottom window for the Stochastics. This has been mild.
GOLD WEEKLY CLOSE UP – Resent ICLs were mild and just choppy sideways moves, but they were longer than the recent one and the Stochastics ( bottom window) reached an oversold level. If I just looked at this chart alone, it would look like 2-3 more weeks would be needed to match those first 2 ICL sell offs. CONCLUSION HERE: THIS CHART LOOKS LIKE WE NEED A LITTLE MORE TIME. 2-3 more weeks may have helped the stochastics & the bull flag to fill in.
GOLD WEEKLY 2000 – 2011 BULL DURING ELECTION YRS – In 2004, the Gold market sold off after the election. In 2008 we had a financial crash and the markets rallied in November 2008. That makes it a split decision for that bull run.
SILVER WEEKLY – Silver has remained between the $20 support and the $26 resistance. Here in the Big Picture Silver is Bullish yet neutral. Recovering $26 would become more bullish. The RSI turned up at the 50 % area though, and THAT is bullish.
.With Fridays trading, many Miners took on a more bullish look to them, and I posted a few charts in the live area during the trading hours. I will point that out after our review of the GDX & GDXJ ETFs.
GDX WEEKLY – This has been a wide choppy bull flag formation. Do you see the 2 big red candles in the bull flag? Those are both spikes down into DCLs. The same as with Gold, I expected this to be a final daily cycle that spikes down 1 more time into an ICL. That may have brought it to the moving averages, but Friday looked Bullish here too.
GDX DAILY – To be honest, I expected AT LEAST a drop to 38% and even 50% is ICL type levels, but this dcl put in a higher low, so I did take a couple of Silver stocks as a trade Friday afternoon after watching the gaps try to fill and then reverse higher. I view it as a trade for now, with Gold looking bullish though.
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GDX WEEKLY – Again, the ICL dips in the 2008-2011 bull run were deeper than now, but GDX seems to be bouncing off of a support line too. Is this an ICL? Its closer to 50 / 50 or maybe – not definite.
GDXJ WEEKLY – You can see how tight the weekly drift into the first & second ICLs on the chart were. This chop has NOT been tight, so it makes it feel like we are rallying & then rolling over. So again you can see the 2 weekly spikes down that were the 2 dcls. A break above the downtrend line is BULLISH, so I took a couple of trades and will see if we can break out higher or does this stop, chop, and roll? Again look at the stochastics (lower box). It seems like an ICL wouldn’t be due until after the US Elections in November.
GDX WEEKLY BIG PICTURE – Election yrs. 2008 sold off into the election. 2012 Sold off right after the election. 2016 sold off right after the election. Both of those elections were ‘peaks’ though. 2020 already ‘peaked’ in August, so there is a difference here timing wise. 
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Let’s look at just a couple of Miners.
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CDE DAILY – I watched CDE gap open Friday and by midday it was selling down into the gap. As the day continued it then reversed and broke back over the 50sma, so I bought it as a trade. I then realized that it also broke a downtrend so this may rally back to August highs.
AUY DAILY – This did the same thing by pushing above the 34 & 50sma and breaking a downtrend.
THE AUY WEEKLY chart looks bullish too.
EXK DAILY – EXK is a Silver stock that is still rather close to the recent lows, so you could buy it with a stop under the September lows ( I Bought it as a trade).
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Some Miners were stronger than others.
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USAS popped almost 10% after a pretty deep sell off. This looks like a bullish break from a large wedge and just doesn’t feel like weakness into an ICL, so we get a mixed picture at this point.
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Enjoy your Weekend, and we’ll just have to wait and see how next weeks trading adds to the big picture developments.
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN DAILY – Bitcoin is breaking higher and looks like a bullish run back to recent highs is in play (12,500ish), so I bought MARA & RIOT. We will look at those charts in a minute…
BITCOIN WEEKY – This could have been a bear flag, but it pushed higher last week, so Bitcoin might also make a weekly run to the May 2020 highs (14,000) .
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MARA WEEKLY – The weekly chart for MARA is actually a thing of beauty. With a weekly chart, it is harder to ‘time’ a run exactly, but here we see that recent rally and then a dip back down followed by sideways chop along the support. That push higher this week (10%) could be in response to Bitcoins push higher, and if Bitcoin is to continue higher, MARA can rally quickly.
RIOT WEEKLY – This is also a beautiful chart. That small looking rally in August gave us a 100% move, and now RIOT has pulled back to a weekly support and chopped sideways too. RIOT popped 20% this week and also can swiftly run higher if Bitcoin pushes higher, so this is a buy too. The RSI is turning higher at the 50 level & volume picked up. Let’s zoom in closer…
RIOT WEEKLY CLOSE UP – This was a nice weekly reversal above support, up 20% for the week. These move fast so I didn’t want to hesitate too long. I DID buy it about 3 weeks ago & got stopped out, but market wiggles are part of the game and Bitcoin was not as bullish then. This could easily double IF it is ready to go.
