Tuesday September 15th – Bullishness
In August I was complaining that I often see lack of follow through to good set up, choppy trading, and a difficult frustrating time in the markets for many, since a lot of traders take vacations then. Now that we are beyond Labor Day and traders are back to work, we may start to see some nice trades following through. After a dcl forms, we should see a couple of weeks with those lows in place, even if it will become a L.T. Daily Cycle.
With that in mind, we’ll discuss the Markets quickly and review a lot of charts of ‘set ups’ in various sectors that might offer us some good trading gains. That also includes some Miners, so lets get right to the report…
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SPX – We do not have a close above the 10sma, so this is not a confirmed swing low, but it is very late and I do think that it will prove to be the dcl. I see many individual stocks setting up and moving higher ahead of the SPX, Nasdaq, and DJIA too.
IBB ( Think LABU) -IBB is breaking a downtrend, and it looks like many individual Biotech stocks are ready to run again too. LABU is a leveraged trade for Biotech too. Labu could run from $40 to $80 minimum if IBB runs to new highs.
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BITCOIN: On Sept 9th I said that I felt the lows were in for Bitcoin as it rode support. When it breaks higher, MARA, RIOT, HVBTF, etc may start to rise too.
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BITCOIN: It did hold up & is rising higher , so watch your blockchain stocks.
Note: When strictly using cycles, we know that an ICL comes along on average about 6 months from the last ICL. It can be earlier or later in cases where bullishness or bearishness overwhelms it (Buyers or Sellers step in strongly), but we become keenly aware of the chances of a dip around that 6th month time period. Recently in my reports, I have been discussing the bullishness that keeps presenting itself in this current Consolidation / Chop, and Monday we saw more of that – so let’s discuss that again in the precious Metals Sector.
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GOLD – With a triangle consolidation, this could break either way ( up or down), but the indicators are turning bullish and in technical analysis it leans more to the bullish side. I honestly feel that this sector could make another run higher simply because of the way it is acting. Buying at this point is a ‘low risk entry’, because you can keep a stop near the lows to limit losses while the upside has greater potential.
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SILVER pretty much crashed into the dcl in 2 days back in early August. Ever since then the move has been choppy yet constructive above the 34 sma. I cannot say that this is bearish looking, because it is not. This is a low risk buy after a 1+ Month consolidation too, since in a Bull Market, the next dcl Could Possibly be another higher low (In an extended Intermediate Cycle).
GDX – I have already mentioned several times that this consolidation resembles the May / June consolidation and a nice rally followed that.
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So now I need to discuss these 3 set ups ( Gold, Silver, & Miners) from a more bullish view point again. Nothing has changed since I’ve mentioned the bullishness in recent reports, its just that at day 23, the expected weakness of an impending ICL is not showing up. It is 6 months since the last ICL, so yes we are due for another, but it CAN come late. If we saw an ICL on month 8 or 9, Gold could break higher now and become a R.T. Daily cycle on month 6. The next one could become weaker and an ICL could come (Milder) in 2 months. This has always been a possibility, but it would have been viewed as least likely. We always have to take the 6th month cautiously while it chops around, and we need to monitor how things are playing out as that 6th month starts. Currently at day 22, I am seeing bullish triangle consolidations and Miners (individual ones) that are returning to the recent highs. That HAS to be noted in the reports. I would HATE to get people deeply invested in a sector right before a drop into an ICL, because I know that some people refuse to stop out and tend to ride their positions lower. That said, I also need to report what I am seeing at all times, and on day 22 I’m still seeing continuing bullishness within this consolidation.
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In recent reports over the past 2 weeks, I have discussed some bullishness in various Miners and I will discuss some Miners below again. It seems that this 6th month of the intermediate Cycle is not weakening as expected and this can extend the cycles length. We could either get a really quick false break down at day 30 & then a strong rally as an ICL, or we get a delayed ICL for month 7 or 8.
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Below I will review a good number of stocks to show how various sector all seem to be setting up after our August choppiness, and that does include Miners.
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Enjoy your Tuesday trading!
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~ALEX
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SSRM #1 – If you look at this chart you’ll see a few good runs, but basically SSRM has been in the $19 area through out 2020, but it does look like it may be ready to move out of here now. Let’s go to chart #2…
SSRM #2 – Consolidations build energy for a stronger run, and this looks set up to go. It broke the 50sma yesterday and kind of looks like it had an ICL of its own, doesn’t it. That crash may have cleaned out the weak hands and this base added accumulation. Volume was great Monday.
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Note: Now on day 22 I am seeing more than just the 1 or 2 triangle consolidations starting to break out that I showed in past reports. I now see it in several Miners & they may be leading Gold & Silver. If you see a triangle consolidation at the apex, you can buy it or watch for a break out.
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VGZ consolidated with a triangle formation too. It held the 50sma and broke out yesterday. In technical analysis, this is a buy WITH DOWNSIDE PROTECTION (mental stop) and it could rally.
AAU was a similar buy Friday and this midday chart shows that it was finding follow through too. This at least shows us that it is not just one or 2 Miners breaking out now.
BTG #1 – BTG rode the 50 sma and formed a triangle of its own. It started to break out yesterday.
BTG #2 – Yes, it could just continue to consolidate, as shown here, but because it is already at the 50sma and using it as support, I would say that BTG is a buy and wants to attack the recent highs again. From the 2 blue arrows, it rallied nicely off of the 50sma in July, we may see that again. Buy with a stop.
CDE is on the 50sma, so the entry is really clear. Buy with a loose stop . Look at the last rally from the chop down to the 50sma. If you sold CDE in the first week of August, you simply missed 5 weeks of chop.
FSM is strong. It had a shorter drop & returned to the highs. I have the 50sma, but it probably followed the 34 sma, I should have used that. Notice that FSM also chopped in May through July as inclined. It is steady.
GFI -This was a deeper kind of chop, but once it got to the 50sma, it has chopped back to the highs. In the past 2 weeks we discussed Miners like this as bullish set ups, and now we see follow though.
MAG dropped from $18 to $14 for several weeks, but shot up 10% yesterday. It is a buy at the 50sma and yesterdays volume was strong.
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LODE – This also looks like a bullish consolidation.
KGC popped yesterday 5% and this looks like a nice Buy set up too.
KGC – Worst case scenario ( less likely that it would be this deep now) should be shown since we are at the 6 month point, but you simply do not ride these down—you’d use a stop and grab some gains.
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Other stocks in other sectors are turning Bullish too, so get out your watch list and check your charts.
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MU jumped right above the 50sma and touched the 200sma. Maybe you don’t like to buy gaps higher, but this gap may not fill. Either way, I just wanted to show you the bullishness in the Tech or semi sector after the recent sell off.
CREE – A semiconductor with a nice set up after that Market sell off. This is a buy.
NIO -I bought NIO as it started to break the 8 ema & downtrend. I rode this as it ran from the pan-like consolidation and wanted to get back in ( Chinas Tesla).
WKHS – This one is still playing out bullishly, congrats to those riding this with me for the past month or so.
SPAQ – Congratulations also to all riding SPAQ, we saw another 14.5 % Monday. We are really making nice gains on this one. I expect it to get to the July Highs, but please sell whenever you are happy with your gains.
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HCAC – Another nice push with HCAC yesterday too, and now it is at all time highs.
OPES – This is the same acquisition sector and looks very similar to HCAC when I first bought it. This already ran from $11 to $15 in September alone, and it may have a lot more upside available , since this sector is hot.
I noticed that many of our strong Covid Stocks, that recently dropped & consolidated after their strong run higher, are perking up again. MRNA, BNTX, AZN, NVAX, INO, IBIO, etc look ready to go. Let’s take a look…
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BNTX – This is a buy as it holds the trend line. The last time we bought it in this area it ran from $55 to $105- they are working on a vaccine. See also MRNA and AZN.
‘IBIO – I captured this midday at $2 up 4%, it formed a flat base and you can see what it did in July during the hysteria. $1.50 to $7.5. Half of that move would be excellent at this point, so…
IBIO -it closed up 9% and looks ready to continue higher.
NVAX – Many here may remember the excellent gains that we made on NAVX, and then it just kept running. Well it has pulled back into a bull falling wedge and this small pop was a 10% gain. This moves quickly so it can be hard to ride the swings, but this is a buy. see also INO, IBIO, etc
BYND – I pointed this out on September 10th (last week) as a Bullish set up with strong potential .
BYND – It is still a bullish set up, even after the markets sold off. It simply paused with a little chop.
ETSY – This company has done well with ‘ online ordering’ ability during covid times. Notice that each consolidation breaks out with a strong rally. We look to be close to that point. Buy it here or buy the break out.
F -is a bullish set up as it regains the 200sma.
