Tuesday August 18th – Buy Low – Sell High
No Change in the General Market. We are still coming due for a dip into a dcl, but these markets hardly show any signs of weakness as they chug higher.
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WTIC – We finally got that break out through that 200sma that I have been waiting for. I expected the Oil Energy stocks to break higher too. It is weird, but I own BTE and SLCA and they looked good, and then…
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XOP – I looked up XOP & XLE and they didn’t push higher, so lets see what happens if this Break by oil holds for another day. Maybe these will follow. This is not bad, XOP is above the 50sma, I’m just surprised that it didn’t react immediately.
BTE -As you can see , some stocks like BTE are acting correctly.
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JUST A REMINDER OF WHAT I WROTE IN FRIDAYS REPORT: – POSSIBLE GOOD NEWS: Even though the XOP is getting later in the daily cycle at this point, it may just be that 1/2 cycle dip that I have been noticing in the recent market moves. They are subtle, so that good news is that this dip might just be 1/2 way point. See the chart. EDIT AUG 18 : OIL POPPED, WE NEED A MOVE HIGHER THIS WEEK THOUGH, IN MY OPINION.
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REMINDER FROM THURSDAY NIGHTS REPORT: GOLD – We do not have a ‘confirmed’ swing low, you need to see price recover the 10 sma for that, but I think that it is a safe buy. Why? We hit day 47, and that is very late. We do have a swing low after the reversal. The question is, will this run & make new highs? We’ll see, but for now we should have the lows in place at Golds 34 sma.
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GOLD – As mentioned Friday & in the weekend report, Gold plunged on day 46 and erased weeks of trade, but dropped & put in a reversal the following day, day 47. This looked like a dcl and we had a swing low as it pushed higher. I declared that it was most likely a dcl, and would be bought with a stop. Monday Gold broke the downtrend and this would be day 3 out of the lows.
SILVER – Silver is also on day 3 and moved off of the 20sma . Silver had 1 crash down day that erased almost 2 weeks of gains, but then dropped & flipped higher then next day, and the timing was right for a dcl at the 20sma.
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REMINDER FROM THURSDAY NIGHTS REPORT: GDX does not look like as big of a reversal as Silver or Gold really, but that is good if you didn’t buy yet. Do we wait for the cross of the 10sma & break of that overhead downtrend to buy? I feel that that is waiting too long under the current circumstances. I say that We are near the lows, it is oversold, and this SHOULD BE a dcl due to the ‘timing’ and the set up of the Main Metals. So this is a BUY.
We then got another small reversal candle on Friday day 3. After hrs we saw the futures rise and I began to think that we could see an Island bottom if this gaps open on Monday…
WITH FRIDAYS AFTER HRS POP IN BARRICK GOLD, I WROTE: A few Miners went higher in after hrs on news that Warren Buffet ( a long time outspoken hater of Gold or Miners as an investment) , became a buyer of Barrick. IF they gap open Monday, these could look like Island Bottoms. A bullish low for now. We’ll see what Monday brings.
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GDX #1 – So now this does look like an Island Bottom if that Gap doesn’t fill. It gapped right back over the 10sma and could just continue higher.
GDX #2 – So if this ends up being a weaker daily cycle, you would likely see a lot of chop and these can become Left Translated, topping by day 8-12 or so. It could look like this as a ‘weaker case scenario’…
GDX#3 – A stronger push would run to new highs and can chop higher the way the last daily cycle did. It didn’t run straight up, but it was a great run for making gains in Miners. These small looking moves from the dcl can still be 20%- 30%.
GDX #4: LEFT SIDE OF THE CHART – And then I have to include that reminder that we just need to stay alert. We saw a good 6-7 day rally in February peak & roll over. Followed by another 5 day run higher that rolled over too. We try to buy near the lows (dcl), use a mental stop, and keep an eye on things as it moves higher. And individual Miners ca always do their own thing.
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IAG : BACK TEST? – I noticed that a few of these Miners dropped sharply and seem to just be back testing the recent break out. They found support at the Buy last week, and started higher Monday.
AUY : ANOTHER BACK TEST? – I bought AUY on Monday morning, since it didn’t gap open very much. I am expecting a run to the recent highs for starters and hopefully these can break to new highs and even move higher.
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With a dcl in place late in an Intermediate Cycle, I usually just look at it with the idea that we now have 2 weeks to see how it will do. Why? 2 weeks is 10 trading days and often a weak L.T. Daily Cycle will peak around that time. If it just moves higher & breaks to new highs, it can be held on to until it shows signs of weakness. We all know that an ICL often comes roughly 6 – 7 months from the last one ( March), so it makes sense to be a bit more cautious, but a trade out of a dcl is usually reliable. That DCL is The Low, so it should not be soon be broken for a while. We have time to see how things unfold, choppy or rally? Along with that is the reminder that individual Miners can act on their own merit, so they can outperform Gold, Silver, or GDX.
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Enjoy your Tuesday trading!
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~ALEX
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DRD – I have been watching some of the African Miners when they run, and they often put in day after day gains when they run.
So I Look at DRD this way: I grabbed DRD as it gapped over the 50sma & onto the 10sma. It is breaking the downtrend line too. This is the important part to me: Even a ‘small’ run to recent highs is $14 to $19. I’ll take that trade possibility any day of the week.
AUMN – AUMN is also breaking a downtrend with high volume, after finding support at the 50sma. I bought it for a trade and will see what it wants to do. TRX Looks very similar and could be bought for a trade.
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FIOGF was chopping sideways and is already trying to break to new highs. That is a low risk buy.
SVBL -I grabbed this chart near lunch and was going to recommend it as a buy in this report, it broke the down trend with great volume, but…
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It kept going and closed up 22%. I still love it, the volume was HUGE by the end of the day.
It is very hard to buy a stock that ran up 22%, but maybe if it pulls back you might get a chance to enter.
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RIOT – I pointed out RIOT here, said that I got stopped out when I had to leave for the day. I then bought it at the 20sma & trend line, and wrote that below this chart in a comment. I have heard from some that they followed me.
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RIOT – So some of us bought that dip on RIOT near $3 to $3.20. It’s already 30% higher from $3.20, and closed up over 12% if you include after hrs trading Monday. With Bitcoin pushing higher, it looks ready to go to new highs again.
BLDP ( & CLNE) – Look at May to July for BLDP. In those 2 months alone, it had a STRONG run from $9 to $22. It tripled from the April lows. BLDP pulled back to the 50sma at $14 in July and has a strong reversal buy opportunity right now. You can use a stop near recent lows. CLNE looks set up in a similar way too.
Both BNTX & MRNA are working together on a Covid Vaccine. I have actually traded both of these successfully off of the 50sma area (using the 60 sma here, it is clearer). They both rallied together and now landed in the 50 sma area together. This is a low risk buy on support, or you can wait for it to start to push higher. Why? Just in case it crawls sideways as a bear flag, but this does look good and your stop will minimize losses.
MRNA also landed on the 50 sma several times before running higher, and it is there now too. It is very oversold.
UEC, UUUU, URG, (Uraniums) Are still holding the 50sma, and maybe they’ll push higher with the Miners too.
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I AM ADDING A COMMENT HERE THAT I PUT IN THE LIVE AREA BELOW AS A REMINDER: My Miners positions are short term trades…
