Thursday August 13th
SPX – Honestly the SPX had a bearish engulfing on Tuesday (day 30?) and it didn’t follow through? Was it a mini 3/4 dip? I didn’t short it or advise shorting it, because these markets are not selling down. For now, that 13 sma has still held the long positions in the long trade, as mentioned over the past few months. Only a drop into a Daily Cycle low (DCL) has stopped the longs out- and then we re-enter on the swing low. AND…
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NASDAQ – Take a look at the NASDAQ, do you visibly , easily see a dcl? No, not really. This is a solid uptrend coming out of the March crash without any real steep sell off.
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WTIC – Can you believe this? 🙂 I have been calling for a break out and we are still squeezed between the moving averages . Time has run out, Thursday will give us OILs direction, and I do expect a push higher. We’ll see.
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XOP – So the Energy set up remains bullish, we just didn’t get a surge higher Wednesday with Oil pinned under that 200 sma. read the chart. Let’s look at a few Oil Stocks.
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BTE– some energy stocks stalled , and others moved higher. That means that we have a bit of a mixed picture. I ( we) bought BTE at the moving averages, and it is still pushing higher, despite Oils stall.
PVAC– Jumped almost 20%, dropped on Tuesday, and then Popped another 17.4% Wednesday. This is a nice set up and I wish I bought that dip. If it dips again, I may enter this one too.
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HLX – I bought this one and sold it Wednesday. Maybe I did’t need to ? They did an offering and I saw price down 8% in pre-market, so I sold it down 8% after the open and it continued to drop. It then tagged the the 34 & 50 sma, and bounced back. Hmmm. It almost looks like it was just a quick drop. This is back on my watch list.
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SLCA – My position in this one is up nicely, and I know that some followed me in. I still see this as a nice bullish set up/ consolidation.
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I posted this chart of MRO ( $6.04) on Aug 10, because I want to buy it. I still haven’t, and it has since Popped over the 50sma and dropped back to it. Price is roughly still in this $6 area, I just want to see what OIL & the Oil stocks do before I commit to another position.
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PRECIOUS METALS : Yesterday I had a detailed report in this sector, outlining various possibilities going forward. Please refer to that report and that section if you need to be refreshed on various possibles going forward. Today I am just going to discuss ‘What We Saw Wednesday’, and yesterdays scenarios in that report are still valid.
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GOLD ended with a Doji. Please read the chart to see what that indicates and note that this strong rally suddenly sees a change in the indicators that I have shown. A move above yesterdays highs would put a swing low in place, but it needs to get above the 10sma to confirm it.
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SILVER had a Doji too, and it ran up to the 10 sma & was rejected. A move above that 10sma would indicate a dcl.
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GDX popped & dropped on Wednesday. It is also overdue for a daily cycle low, but it is possible that it could tag the 50sma too. A bounce from here may be trade-able, it could even make new highs, but entries need to stay alert to the possibility that this daily cycles eventually drops us into an ICL sell off. We are now reaching oversold levels.
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IN YESTERDAYS REPORT: GDX is now priced where it was in early July , and actually only $1 higher than where it was in May! That drop erased the past 4 weeks of trading. These Miners can drop FAST, and this is why I do not want to ride a drop into an ICL down. We could rally/ bounce- but Stay Frosty my friends!
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We have had some very excellent trades over the past couple of months, from Tech to Biotech to Miners. The Precious Metals Sector took off running and never looked back until recently. Now there have been just a few hurdles to overcome along the way. One is the pull backs. I like to lock in my big gains and keep them 🙂
I sold almost all of my Miners and mentioned that a couple of weeks ago, as timing and indicators started to call for this pull back. At this point, we’ve seen some pull backs In all areas of the Markets . One thing that can be considered a ‘hurdle’ is that when these Miners or Biotech stocks drop – they can take back gains fairly big %-Gains on the drops rather quickly. With this, I start to become a bit less invested and bit more cautious until the consolidation or choppiness passes. We are due for a dcl in Miners, and longer term I am still very Bullish. A few trades look good, but why am I not just buying everything that went on sale? Even Longer term we ought to get a drop into an ICL and that will be the next great buying opportunity. A time to load up . Right now however, I just ( personally) have been watching the dip and I’m looking for signs of strength or reversals at support, etc. before going heavily long again. With that, I don’t have a lot of trade ideas in todays report. Some of my positions in Biotech (set ups) are also dropping to the next lower support levels, so I got stopped out of a few positions. I’ll point that out below.
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I am looking at OIL and ENERGY Stocks, watching to see if Oil can push above that 200sma. That may trigger more buying in our lists of Energy Stocks ( MRO, BTE, PVAC, APA, WTI, ERF, CLB, SLCA, etc) . I do still own BTE, SLCA, and may buy MRO. Enjoy your Thursday trading!
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~ALEX
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ACER – One Biotech that I still own and pointed out in the live area yesterday was this one. This was Midday, and I thought that it was a pretty tight flag-like triangle consolidation.I bought this in the base and added.
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ACER closed near the highs of that formation and volume was increasing. Let me show you another reason that I like this one ( Chart Pattern related)…
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ACER is at upper resistance of a 1 year base. It attempted to break out back in February, but then got caught up in that March sell off, so it became a failed or false break out. It looks ready to try again, and there is a huge gap from last year. Those gaps usually do not offer any resistance, beacause no one was buying there that would become a seller on the way up. We’ll see.
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BIOC – On the watch list. After we rode BIOC into that high volume Pop ( it was up 100% at one point), it has since consolidated those gains. I like the set up because it now looks like a Bullish descending wedge. I sold my position on the Pop, and some more on the drop, just in case that gap fills, but I bought another starter position and would add on a break of the wedge…or…a tag of the gap fill area ( as long as it is not a heavy volume sell off). I ( we) locked in great gains trading Bioc twice now , and do not want to chop it up if this gets unstable, but so far it has a nice steady pop & drop consolidation.
THE STORY / UPDATE OF JAGX :
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JAGX JULY 28 – I owned JAGX above the 50sma for a while in the base and as it broke out above the 200 sma on a strong Pop. I sold 33% on that pop, but I added on the dip near the 200sma and have pointed this out as a proper set up. A triangle back on July 28, probably ready to pop again.
On Aug 5 & 6 we got that pop and break out from the triangle, but it didn’t pop & run as hoped for.
This was AUG 7 where I mentioned that I still own it and was watching for it to drop to the TREND LINE as support & maybe Bounce Off Of the 10 SMA. IF THAT BREAKS, this can drop back to the 200sma. It would still be ok, but that is too much $$$ for me to give back.
JAGX LIVE Yesterday – So I wrote in the live area that I was selling a few positions, JAGX was one. I wanted to lock in gains when this trend line ( & 10sma ) Broke. They were not holding up at upper ‘support areas’, and could drop to the next support level, especially is a dcl is due in the General Markets. I loked in the gains and will take a look again and see how JAGX looks at the 50 & 200 sma ( possible support again).
JAGX & KTOV SALES : KTOV was ‘Leaning’ on the 50sma, and I sold that too . Let me show you something else…
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You likely remember when we bought HTBX at the 50sma. I also owned it in May inside of that base. This was a GREAT trade, it popped and ran 100%, 200%, 300%. I sold it on the way up. I’ve been out of it for a while now, watching it to see if it gets back to a support area. Even this monster has gradually returned to the 50sma. THIS IS WHY I LOCK IN GAINS when I can.
These Biotechs have been Popping and running and giving us 100%, 200% gains and more. It doesn’t matter if you sell the absolute top, as long as you just keep locking in some gains before a pull back. I like to lock in gains on the way up, often selling 20-30% on the first BIG pop, and if it keeps running, I shave a bit more off and use a trailing stop to lock in the rest.
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BY REQUEST: UPDATE ON BNGO: I sold portions of my BNGO trade on the ramp up higher. I then added again at the 200sma support. Recently I sold on that POP & DROP last week & wanted to re-buy. I am completely out, and looking at this, I think that I may have sold BNGO early. This is still bouncing off of the 200sma, so it is on my watch list. The 50sma is rising up to the 200sma.
