July 28th – The Sky Is The Limit, Right??

When it comes to the Bull Run in Gold and Silver right now, there is one thing about this type of  Bullish run when it gets exuberant: It can go further than expected quickly.  There will be pull backs though, there always are.  We’ll discuss that Bull in a minute, first Let’s talk about our markets.

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SPX: The drop with the General Markets paused Friday & turned higher at support Monday, so I closed my ‘short’ SOXS trade pre-market  for a quick profit. I posted that I had done that in the Live area ( located below each report).  That doesn’t mean that we won’t sell down. This is roughly  midpoint on the 3rd daily cycle.

 

WTIC  Pushed a bit higher after a red start.  The Oil stocks started out down too, so…

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USO – heading into the close  I pointed out in the live area that Oil had reversed higher nicely.  While The XLE was trying to go green, the XOP actually looked weak.  I don’t understand why, but we ended the day with a mix of green & red energy stocks. THAT WILL NEED WATCHING TUESDAY.

XLE – So this was the XLE Energy Fund  closing Green above support and looking fine…

 

XOP – And the XOP closed down below the 10sma, yet above the 20sma. I’d say that this needs watching this week, with some energy stocks looking fine, others questionable.

 

JUST A THOUGHT – THIS IS WHAT I SAW MONDAY

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I want to share an idea that I thought of, but as I write  on Monday night, Gold & Silver are still screaming higher and would probably negate this idea if that lasts into the morning.

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UUP- I saw the UUP gap down and just sit there all day.  GLD gapped up and sat there all day. IF these were to gap back in the opposite direction, you would have an abandoned baby in place here.  That would also be a day 32 DCL, so it seemed very likely ( until I saw GOLD & SILVER IN AFTER HRS) .  🙂

 

GLD  is doing a runaway move that also gapped higher Monday. That can be very bullish until I saw that gap open with the UUP gap down.   On Monday as I write, GOLD is hitting all time highs,  so THE SKY IS THE LIMIT.  We really don’t have a solid upside target price ( though I do have a few guesses).   A GAP DOWN MONDAY could be a topping candle.  There is more too…

 

There is more too:my price targets are being met.

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REMINDER: ON WEDNESDAY NIGHTS REPORT LAST WEEK I GAVE 2 BASIC MEASURED MOVE TARGETS FOR SILVER :

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I WROTE:  If I use this method, I get these targets for Silver, but we all know that Silver can extend when it heats up.  As a guide though, I roughly get ( #1) $24 conservative, and  (#2) $26  Actual.

IN THE WEEKEND REPORT I SAID:  THIS WOULD BE  SILVER  AT $26 –  Using technical analysis, a move to $26 is actually the next resistance point, so it actually does make sense .

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AND…SILVER HIT $26 AS I GATHERED CHARTS AND AM WRITING THIS ON MONDAY NIGHT. SO again, that chart above shows resistance in this area. We’ll see if Silver chews through it or if it pauses and turns down.

GOLD 1980, Silver $26.

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GDX – So this is often a type of ‘topping candle’ during a run too.  I could see it as a 1-2-3-4-5 wave move, but is it complete?  We don’t know, but many things are kind of lining up here…

 

GDX –  I will say on the more ‘Bullish’ side that we HAVE seen this type of candle before, and it even gapped up & kept going in June, so if Gold runs higher, GDX will run higher.  NOTE:  GDX hit $44.46 , and…

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This was in Thursdays report. If GDX runs to $45 and then drops to a dcl as a ‘back test’ again,  another run could take it to that $50 line .  Look at the circle where I wrote ‘Similar to this’.   A repeat of that is possible.  EDIT:  That $44.45 Monday is close enough to my $45 target.   Now Time will tell if we are short term topping.

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GDXJ –  You may recall that this JULY 10 chart pointed to  between $60 & $64 ish as resistance .

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GDXJ  actually hit $64 in after hrs, but during regular hours it tagged $63.31 before reversing a bit lower.   It also had that reversal top type of candle, but we’ve seen it in past runs and it caused a pause. Tuesday will let us know if the run is finishing up at resistance or if there is more gas in the tank.

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The fire continues to burn under the red hot Precious Metals sector. I have been locking in gains, but it’s also good to let some run,  just in case we get this type of Gold Rush mania.  Some of the lagging Miners are really playing catch up fast and others are just plain running strong. It will come to an end, it always does, so let’s enjoy it while we can. Silver at $26 was a legitimate target with resistance in that area, and we have tagged $26 tonight, so  we will see on Tuesday if that can slow it down or not.

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Enjoy your Tuesday trading!

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~ALEX

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BITCOIN broke out this weekend ( It trades 24/7), and that sent our Blockchain stocks flying, with MARA, RIOT, HVBTF, XNET, SRAX, GROW,  and a few others taking off Monday.

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After hours Bitcoin then ramped straight up again, as seen here, and they extended gains after hrs.  This looks too extended, so maybe BITCOIN will pull back for a while and allow some entries in the blockchain stocks. We’ll see …

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I was trying to look for laggers, and I mentioned SRAX in the live area, but it took off higher an hour later.  XNET & NXTD also came to mind. I will post charts below…

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XNET -I don’t know what these will look like in the morning. If Bitcoin dips down, these may still be a buy. They are OVERSOLD, so they could have plenty of upside. XNET was only up 3% in After hrs.

 

NXTD-I actually bought NXTD  in after hours  stalled & dropped , but then spiked up and ran to 60 cents.  This is also oversold, so it may offer an entry, but these may gap open if BITCOIN doesn’t pull back overnight.

 

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THE LAGGERS: You may recall that I posted a few laggers lately, and they’ve done very well. IF THERE IS MORE UPSIDE IN THE METALS, are there other laggers? Let’s discuss this…

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ASM was posted by me as a lagger on July 20th. It was reversing at the 34 sma, and was a buy…

ASM – Over the next few days  it rallied nicely

VGZ  was also pointed out as a cup, not yet broken out…

VGZ  – Only 3 days later it has taken off higher.

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LODE – So now we saw LODE rally and sell off . IF GOLD has further to go, LODE may run back to the highs

 

TRX was doing a back test while the others rallied. It reversed strongly Monday and IF GOLD KEEPS RUNNING,  it may break to new highs and rally too.