Tuesday July 21 – Explosive Moves
We are seeing some explosive moves in a few sectors, and happily for many, the Silver Miners rocketed even higher yesterday. Several were up 15-20%, so staying long and trying to just allow the markets to take us out of the trades has paid off for the long & strong crowd. Let’s examine our markets…
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THE SPX actually broke to new Post Crash Highs. The 3rd daily cycle is where we became a bit more cautious, but trying to short these markets has been futile. As seen here, most dips did not break that red 34 sma, and all runs higher held the 10 or 13 sma. That is where stops have been.
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RECENTLY MU, TSEM, AMD, & SOME OTHER TECH COMPANIES WERE MENTIONED, AS WELL AS HD, SQ, AND A FEW OTHER GENERAL MARKET STOCKS AS BULLISH SET UPS. THEY REMAIN BULLISH FOR NOW. Those semiconductor stocks actually still look like they want to go higher, and a stop would be right below that 50sma.
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WTIC remains the same, a tight consolidation. This is so tight that it could break higher today or tomorrow ( Oil inventory report day). HAVE YOU BEEN WATCHING THE OIL/ENERGY STOCKS, AS MENTIONED ?
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Has the XOP bottomed? I have been pointing out the possible wave count as shown, and if that is correct, we would expect the next move to be higher. We will have ‘Long Energy’ plays if this plays out, so keep an eye on the charts of our Energy Stocks like APA, PVAC, CVI, MRO, etc should become nice %-Gains to trade / invest in too. So…
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Some Energy stocks do not look quite ready to buy, a few others do.
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PVAC for example: This ran from $2 to $20 and also pulled back in a 5 wave formation with a low near $8.00. A run simply to former highs is almost a triple.
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There are no guarantees, but look how this has played out since I mentioned that 5 wave drop in XOP possibly finishing up. One may want to look these charts over and start small with a stop. Then you could add if it proves itself on the way higher. These can get bumpy, but the gains were strong. Look at that May-June run. Wow.
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BITCOIN Looks to be breaking out Bullishly. You may want to watch GBTC (Bitcoin) and blockchain plays ( MARA, RIOT, etc). We may get another run here.
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GOLD is a bullish set up and could be running to attack the 2011 highs. I have been trying to ignore cycle counts to keep people from selling, because when this sector wants to run…it runs!
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SILVER is a very Bullish set up, and is faithfully climbing along the 10 sma too. No reason to sell has been given. And Silver stocks Exploded yesterday and they still look ready to rocket.
GDX – Miners have also been very bullish and GDX, GDXJ, and SILJ continue breaking out to new highs. THIS IS A BULLISH SET UP IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS. Just ride the bull and let the market take you out of the trade.
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FROM THE WEEKEND REPORT: GDXJ either just continues to melt up or it does a back test pull back and then continues higher. It is possible that GDXJ runs to resistance overhead, and back tests as an ICL in the months to come. I have mentioned GDXJ as a $60+ target for a while now, and not selling on the way up unless Miners break their bull run.
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SILJ was up 9% Monday alone! Wow! I think we may be seeing an acceleration phase here, and this weekend I mentioned a $17 target for SILJ. Lets look again at the weekend chart, but first please read this chart.
WEEKEND REPORT: SILJ was up another 10% this week! It is accelerating out of the dip in June when it formed a ‘cup’. It had its biggest volume week ever. If this repeats what it did in 2016, it could simply melt up . Target is $17, see the chart.
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The trading has been just about the best that I’ve seen in many years. So many sectors are continuing higher all at once, and now Oil / Energy looks like it may join the run. In the back of my mind, I do try to remember that the general markets are in their 3rd daily cycle. That means that it is possible that it can top at anytime. but shorting this market has been dangerous. So many people are expecting it to drop, that it just chews the ‘short ‘ positions up again and again. The run in the miners and especially Silver stocks and SILJ are exceptional. If you held your positions as recommended, you are being rewarded nicely.
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And then we have the Covid plays. The gains here have been the best, in my opinion. I have been trying to research and find Companies with good chart set ups that are basing out, and looking to find Biotech companies that are…
1. Working on a vaccine, or
2. Providing a way to treat symptoms, or
3. Do they make test kits for Covid or anitbodies?
4. Maybe they provide equipment that can also help healthcare providers care for patients, etc.
MRNA, BNTX, HTBX, NVAX, COCP, VXRT, INO, IBIO, etc etc are up 100%, 200%, 500%, even over 1000% since March, and the rally continues. Some stocks breaking from bases are also tacking on big gains, so I look for stock charts that have certain features of Bullishness. I have mentioned my current favorites with solid bases as NOVN, HTBX, CHEK, BNGO, CHFS, RGLS, BIOC, and more. I will discuss a few below, but this was a recent break out & rally in HTBX. Not all will do this extreme type of a move, but we caught it after a long boring ride inside of that base. It is quite rewarding to sell portions on the way higher and lock in gains day after day.
And BITCOIN may be breaking out? More trades develop with that in the blockchain area, or just buying GBTC. I will discuss more below, ENJOY YOUR TUESDAY TRADING!
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~ALEX
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After last week and also Mondays action, Many Miners are now getting a bit extended, so it isn’t a place that I can recommend just jumping in (unless you are a day trader/ scalp trader in front of the screens all day. So let’s look at just a few charts and see if possibly there are Miners that may be lagging?
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EXK – When you see a stock like EXK, it has been fairly straight up week after week. Count how many down days do you see out of the last 23? Maybe 4! So buying a stock like this at this point is considered risky, since a healthy pull back can come at any time. If you bought it lower though, I’ve recommended just riding it until it starts to break down. ( 13 sma).
GPL has also exploded higher after being recommended as a trend line break out. So a Silver miner looking like this also is a bit too extended ( up 19% MONDAY ALONE!). If you own it? It can continue higher, so ride it..
MANY MINERS FORMED A CUP & BROKE OUT, BUT LOOK AT SSRM
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SSRM -I would view this as a lagger, low risk entry , so this CAN be bought as it breaks out from a cup & handle. Ideally, buying yesterday would have been great, but this is not overextended and may play catch up.
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ASM -I see several GOLD stocks that are extended, but then others are still near support. This strong reversal ( up 11%) is a buy. It wants to run, and it may target $1.10-$1.15. Those are still Good gains to grab and lock in this week.
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MANY SILVER STOCKS ARE EXTENDING AND YET I SEE SOME GOLD STOCKS POSSIBLY PREPARING TO PUSH HIGHER TOO. THEY CAN BE BOUGHT WITH A STOP IF THEY ARE NEAR A SUPPORT AREA.
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AUY -I would look for something like this. A cup and handle breaking out. It could possibly run for this week or so. Look at that April – May run. What if we overlap that on the run that just started at the bottom of the cup? It still leads to good gains.
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AUY -Longer term it could be a break out and back test when we finally do get a pull back. In 2016 we saw a strong run, a choppy consolidation, and then another run. We could get a quick run after our choppy consolidation now too ( that cup &handle). So you can look for set ups similar to AUY.
THE URANIUM STOCKS MENTIONED RECENTLY ARE BREAKING OUT.
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DNN was a buy and still can be bought. It MIGHT pull back and then run, or just continue higher, so how do you play that? If you are worried about a pullback, I usually take a small position to at least ride it if it just runs away higher, and if it pulls back, I add to position at support. Key: look at the first run and imagine that kind of movement. It was a bit choppy.
DNN- an eventual run to former highs, just like we’ve seen with the Gold & Silver stocks is a good longer term goal/ target.
NXE just broke out Monday too, I think it’s a good buy. Volume was BIG.
UEC – The big picture here is promising too, for a longer term buy & hold. That first run out of the March lows was a solid 200% gain. This consolidation allows for another run.
HTBX – As mentioned, the most recent big winner in Covid-related stocks was HTBX.
IBIO was another example of the pattern that I pointed out in the weekend report. POP/DROP/FLY. CHEK and a couple of the others that I’m watching MIGHT be doing that now.
IBIO – I (or We) traded IBIO in March -May and part of June, and look at the move out of the BASE. I am trying to get us into bases that can have the same upward reaction. THEY GET CHOPPY & HARD TO RIDE THOUGH, so it is boring at times.
I pointed out (& bought) ABIO right at the lows on this reversal. The upside potential looks like a double or a triple if the company can avoid doing an offering or shedding bad news.
ABIO popped to over $8 and then dropped into the close just under $8, I still think it can be bought, since it is now proving itself after the reversal.
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NEW COVID PLAYS POSSIBLY READY TO GO
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ACER -I have watched ACER for a while as it chopped along the green 50sma. I wanted to buy the dip at the low of this base, but I missed it. I do think that a break above $4 could run towards $8. Not bad huh? It ran from $1 to $4 and consolidated. You may want this on your watchlist, set an alert for a break out (it may happen this week), and jump on, or buy a pull back if it remains steady.
I traded BIOC in the past and sold it for good gains. I now think that it may be ready again. Notice that it rides the 34 sma faithfully. It is there now, so this is low risk entry ( RISK is always that they do an offering at a lower price, but there is always risk. I recommend a basket of a maybe 3 of these for that reason). You can
1. Buy here at support with a stop or
2. Buy a break out of that magenta line.
3. A run to $1+ is not out of the question.
BNGO -Many know that I have been in BNGO for a while and many followed that trade. It is going well. These 2 charts are what I used to offer the trade. We had an uphill base ready to break out (Similar to BIOC), and…
BNGO then exploded higher , but sold off as the day went on. I still like BNGO, and let me show you why…
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BNGO WEEKLY – Bionano used to trade near $10 as an IPO, and after selling down and now forming a 2 stage 9 month base , It is pushing on that 30 week ma at 70 cents. Breaking above that could send this to an upward climb where I think resistance is minimal at times. I can easily see this popping to $2 in a week.
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I have not shared this one with you yet. It is a LONG base that wasn’t really showing any signs of strength yet. As of Monday, it did.
This is CYCC , and it Popped 5% with increasing volume. A tight base like this is often the kind that get explosive. Closing at $4.66 would place it back above the 50 sma. This chart was captured Midday, it closed at $4.65-right at the 50sma. I will buy it if it moves higher today with money (Gains) harvested from HTBX. Its like rotating the crop 🙂
OPGN -I still own this one.
RGLS -I re-bought own this one near the 50sma and added yesterday. This company is good, they have cash to cover costs( less likely to do an offering) . I traded this before from 65-70 cents to $1.00, and I’m back in it now. It really looks ready to break out above $1 now that it has consolidated. I feel like I trust this company as a buy & hold, so if it just slowly climbs higher, I may ride it. If it pops 40% or so, I have to play it the way I see best at that time.
Summary:I like RGLS and think it can run to $2+ over time. That is a triple. For now I’ll take a break of the $1 area and a move to recent highs in Jan 2020.
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I have owned NOVN for a long time now and I have been pushing it for a while. I like the way it is acting and I know others are in NOVN & CHFS too. They look good. NOVN could stall at the 200sma, we’ll see if & when it gets there.
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From the weekend report.
