Tuesday July 14th
We have been discussing cycle count with the General Markets. The idea is that we are in the 3rd daily cycle, and since it can roll over as Left Translated, we would keep an eye on things and look for signs along the way. Long above the 10sma keeps you in the trade on the way up, but if it breaks down, you’d want to step aside because this could drop for a while. We are starting to see signs of a change.
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NASDAQ – This is a bearish engulfing. After a rally a Bear Engulfing is a sell signal in technical analysis. It doesn’t always have immediate downside follow through, so this doesn’t mean that we are about to crash on Tuesday, but we certainly may have topped. There are other clues …
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VIX – I had been pointing to the VIX as a sign to look for as a market tops. When the Vix Bottoms, volatility comes in and the markets almost always dip. On Monday The VIX broke from a down trend after riding along the 200 sma for a week. This looks Bullish and is bearish for the markets if it has follow through.
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SQQQ is the inverse 3x bear for the Q’s and it looks like a BUY. This is a Bullish engulfing and SOXS had one too.
OIL didn’t move much Monday, so what did the XOP do?
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The XOP was unable to get back above the 10sma. It looks like 5 waves down, but we are waiting for it to recover the 10sma (& even the 50 sma) to show a sign of strength & confirm a dcl. Basically, this is not a buy yet.
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GOLD – Gold is on day 26 off of the lows, so timing-wise it is due to dip into a dcl. A peak on day 23 will likely make this a Right Translated Daily Cycle. Can it still Pop & then Drop? It could, since this looks like a bull flag, but it also may not play out. We want to be mentally ready for the dip into the dcl, though it could be mild if this just chops sideways.
SILVER – As discussed, Silver bottomed after Gold so it is on day 20 . A peak on day 20 also makes this likely to become Right Translated. Silver can continue higher or chop sideways to pass the time too.
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GDX did not hold up like GOLD & SILVER when the markets dropped, so this may be the peak for Miners. It may chop sideways and eventually tag that 50sma.
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Monday started the day Green in many sectors and ended the day Red. There are days like that where the markets simply pause and recover, but at this point there is reason to be more cautious than not.
– The VIX Looks bullish,
– We saw bearish engulfing, and
– Cycle timing has many of these daily cycles later in the run, so they’d be due for a dip.
This is when it may be best to raise stops ( we already have), lock in profits ( selling all or partial positions, its up to you) , and wait for another buying opportunity.
Below I am going to discuss things a bit more though, and you’ll want to read that especially if you own Corona-Stocks. They May or MAY NOT be a sell under these conditions. Tuesdays trading should give us more clues, so enjoy your Tuesday trading.
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~ALEX
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Sadly for me, I spent a part of the day gathering charts that looked like they’d be good set ups as ‘long’ candidates. The markets then sold off in the final hour, so I hesitate to post many of these as ‘long candidates’. What I will do is post a few of the charts that I collected, and I will just recommend watching them if the markets sell down. Why watch them?
We want to see if they will hold up (?), follow the markets lower (?), or resist and go higher (?). I think that some of the Corona stocks will start to resist the selling and continue higher. VXRT, BNTX and MRNA had great days and didn’t go red into the close, though they sold down a little off of their highs.
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MRNA shot up about 20% and even with a little end of the day selling, it still closed up 14%. I still like it, as seen here. HTBX was up 30%, VXRT was up 50%. BNTX was up 11%, so this sector may remain bullish.
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RGLS made a bullish move here midday, reversing off of the 50 & 200 sma support area. That was Bullish, but by the close, it dipped back down to the day lows on that support. SO THIS IS WORTH WATCHING, to see if it moves higher from here or breaks down.
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HTBX – I pointed out (and I mentioned that I bought) HTBX with this reversal around 70- 75 cents.
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HTBX burst higher and at Mondays highs, it pretty much doubled from that 70 cent reversal. Mondays push was with strong volume, so this is another corona trade that did not sell off much with the markets. Congrats if you bought it with me. I still own it.
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I was going to highlight a few Uranium Stocks as ‘buys’. I captured the following 2 charts on the weekend, and on Monday they Popped & Dropped, but are basically the same. Instead of recommending as a ‘Buy’, I’d say to keep UUUU & CCJ on your watch list. They Might Not follow the markets selling down .
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This was UUUU Friday and on Monday it popped and then only dropped 2 cents, so it remains well within the triangle.
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I bought ABIO at $7 .00 Monday morning and posted this chart. I love the way it moved along the 50 sma and started to pop. Well, it turned out to be a great trade ( but only for a couple of hours). ABIO ran higher to $7.63, but then…
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ABIO ran higher to $7.63, I felt pretty good about that, but then it hit the 34 sma and sold off into the close, right back to where I bought it. SO THIS CAN GO ON THE WATCH LIST TOO.
