Tuesday June 9th

FROM THE WEEKEND REPORT, I WROTE IN PART:   I’m  wondering  if we are going to see a BIG BLOW OFF TOP followed by  the reality of a slower economy, and then the markets begin to drop?  Time will tell, but big money is made in a blow off tops too,  you just need to remember to sell before they take it all back.   I will, of course, continue to  keep an eye on things going forward.

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I wish to add to that:    I remember when Gold & Silver  was in a bull blow off top.  ALL explorers and companies with the word ‘gold’ in their name, even very small companies that had heavy debt and in talks for bankruptcy, etc.  were all flying high.  You could take a dart board with names of miners and throw a dart, buy it, and make money.

  In the 2000 Blow of top for the NASDAQ, I saw companies like EMC, JDSU, NTAP, SUNW  (Sun Micro systems ), CSCO, etc.  flying higher doubling & tripling and analysts were screaming that their PE was way too high, and markes were acting ridiculous.   My Point?  I Can’t be sure, but  we might be seeing a short term melt up now here in the General Markets and other sectors, and it looks ridiculous to many.  It seems like everything is catching a bid,  the gains are ridiculously strong, even bankrupt companies are doubling and tripling.

  We still can’t tell if that is what is happening, but if this is a blow off top, pull backs will be short and the markets could run much higher.   That said,   I like to “Make hay while the sun shines” as they say, and the Sun sure has been shining in many different areas lately. We’ll discuss that a little more, while keeping in mind that ‘All good things come to an end’, so use stops and Stay Frosty!  🙂

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SPX #1 –  After a dip into a dcl, the S&P has held the 10sma, so anyone using TQQQ, SOXL,  or UPRO would still be in the long trade with a stop under the 10sma. The S&P is now ramping up higher…

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SPX #2 –     A DIP TO GAP FILL AT THE 10 SMA IS POSSIBLE,  but keep in mind that IF we are headed for a melt up / blow off top, that short dip could be all that we get .   Time will tell.

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WTIC  – Oil dropped Monday, but many smaller Oil Stocks were still up  another (are you sitting down)  50-125%.   Lets look at the XOP…

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The XOP  was up 13% with Oil down.   XOP put in a dcl in May and formed a small inverse H&S Consolidation.  This was bullish and many Oil stocks also formed bullish consolidations (APA, MRO, OKE, CVI, CLB, etc).  So far we are seeing a straight line move higher and almost reached an overhead target.  Can it extend?  It can, but the target is roughly $80.

I have lightened up gradually on some of my extended Oil Stocks, and I have also added to laggers  still near their bases for a short term trade . I’ll discuss that below.

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GDX MAY 7th as a reminder – No doubt many of you remember me repeating this chart and saying that after a very strong first leg higher, we could get a choppy 2nd daily cycle. Read the chart.  This was GDX, but it applies to Gold too…

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GOLD 1 – Well Gold certainly has been choppy & sideways.  Some individual Miners can make new highs, but most are following Golds chop here. We are in a box consolidation and reversed at the lows…

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GOLD 2 – So Gold lost the 50sma, but it may be trying to recover it here, as this box consolidation continues to play out. Cycle counts really are unclear. If the lows of Mid April were a dcl, the lows have not been broken.

 

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SILVERs stochastics looks as though it needs a little more time and the price is in the middle of a channel. Silver can continue to chop & even drop, but it did reverse higher Monday and is pushing on the 50sma.

 

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MAY 7th  GDX– This is that same chart and the same reminder that I thought we might chop sideways in a 2nd daily cycle…

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GDX has chopped sideways.   After a nice solid run from March to May,GDX is now choppy and difficult to enjoy.  I have what I drew as a first daily cycle 33 normal days in length. We would now be on day 25 of a 2nd daily cycle. this CAN be in the timing for a dcl here on day 24, but another bounce & drop into day 32 would also be possible.

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Trading over the past couple of week has been difficult in Miners , but exceptional in other areas.  While waiting for the miners to finish consolidating, some of the gains out of the recent bullish set ups have been, not just good or great, but enormous.  Below I will discuss some of the recent trading and similar to the weekend report, I will try to discuss  some of what I look for in these trades. THIS KIND OF TRADING may not be for everyone, especially if you are not in front of the computer all day.  If you are waiting patiently for the Miners to get ready to run again, I think we are almost there. I’m keeping an eye on that too.

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Enjoy your Tuesday trading!

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~ALEX

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HOW FAR CAN THEY GO?

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We are trading stocks that crashed in March and didn’t recover, they formed bases.  Long flat bases are my favorite to trade, and they have developed in many places. How far can they run?  It will be different for each one, but let’s just discuss these trades as a bit of a “lesson’, similar to what I put in the weekend report…

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PRTY AS AN EXAMPLE: In some cases, a stock can break from a long flat base and quickly run back to prior highs.  IT DID HAVE A BRIEF DIP MID-POINT, but then continued higher.   We say it then formed a bowl or cup. The gains are ridiculous, and PRTY ran from roughly 50 cents to $2.75.

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Now lets discuss some that we are currently trading…

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CPE – Can this form a Bowl with a Mid-Point dip?  Yes, it could.  Will it?  We can’t really say for sure, so it is a good idea to lock in some gains in the way up.    If they do an ‘offering’ or have bad news, they will fall as fast as they run.  FOR THAT REASON,  we also  Do not buy or chase these after they run for a couple of days, but we try to buy them near the base.

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CPE  can also pause and do a bull flag or Mid-Point stall like PRTY did. This would be a possible 1/2 way point if we see it, and that pennant can be bought for the 2nd leg higher.

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CPE – We bought within the base last Wednesday & Thursday.  Look at the run that CPE has had. Even after that initial POP Friday, it put on another 80% Monday, so…

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I CHOSE LLEX AS A BIT OF A LAGGER ON MONDAY – I posted this in the live area below the report as a buy early on. It gapped open and filled the gap, a nice buy anywhere near 25 cents really.  I know others bought this one too, so I wanted to mention that This is a LONG Base.  Even though it popped 30%, I am still holding it because it could do what CPE above did.  If it completes a bowl, and we caught it near the base, it would be Big Gains.  I will sell some as it rises though.

 

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LLEX WEEKLY -And this is what REALLY caught my eye.  This was pushing on that 34 weekly ma. It is now above it.

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BE was a lagger. Did it move Monday?

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BE  dropped and put in a reversal, then it moved up only 5% Monday.  It is still a buy and even if it dropped to tag that 50sma with oil dipping, it still looks great. I do believe that this train will leave the station soon too.

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FROM THE WEEKEND REPORT : NOG  – I scalped 20% of my CPE gains and 20% of my OAS gains Friday and entered those gains  NOG, which I think is a lagger too.  I also added to that position with additional funds from my VISL trade earlier in the week.   This is also a nice base setting up. That volume may be saying that it is ready to go. It is a $0.90 cent stock.

  So NOG WAS A LAGGER, still inside the base. I drew this with it up in premarket…

 

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NOG gapped open but then dropped and attempted to fill the gap.  That was a good buy because it then took off higher to up 33%.   I am still holding NOG too, it can run higher.

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VOC -was also a lagger that I pointed out.  You could still have bought this lagger within the base.  How did it do Monday?

 

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VOC – These pops out of the bases do not fool around. Up 40% at one point, this is why I think BE will also make a move soon.  MRO, APA, CLB, PVAC, OKE, etc are all running.

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WTI – This lagger just breaking out Friday also took off higher Monday, so even if you were buying a break out & selling at the end of the day,  These stocks are on fire.

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I want to discuss similar set ups that I am seeing in the retail sector too

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JCPENNY  popped from a base and exploded higher.  I don’t own it, but when I saw this I thought, ” I thought they were declaring layoffs and bankruptcy?  Is this a Melt-up? ”   Well, if  JCP can do a move like this…

 

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GNC Health surely should be able to even better. I saw this base, the high volume pops of interest ( & maybe short cover) and called it out as a buy in the trading area.  I also said that I bought it, and others said that they followed…

 

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GNC– So I grabbed this chart midday and wanted to show the initial targets for the move.  It was $1.40,  but these have all been extending A LOT further than their targets.

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GNC– In fact,  GNC then proceeded to shoot right up to that  first $1.40 area  into the close. I held on , because these are all extending, but it may pause or bull flag here too.  We’ll see.

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So now that we are seeing Retail companies rise from the bases, so I wanted to go to THE GAP, AMERICAN EAGLE, etc and they all are forming bowls too.  THIS LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SECTOR TO PLAY IN!  …

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Barnes & Noble  (BNED)- This is popping too, but is still near the lows with BIG volume coming in.  It may be a base that is getting ready to play catch up too.  This is a buy, especially if it dips lower.

 

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SHIPPERS ARE SAILING AWAY BIG TIME. SEE EGLE,  SHIP, DWSN, FRO, TK,   etc

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NM – Recently I called NM & SB a buy, they looked very similar.  SB took off higher and NM looks ready to go too.  It is bullishly climbing that 10 sma. NM dips down every morning to the 10sma, it could be bought on those dips with a stop under the 50sma.

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CTRM DAILY – I have had this in the report and it is still in the tight base. This was posted at 10 a.m., by the close the volume was over 5 million and this still looks good.

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CTRM WEEKLY – The weekly also looks like it has great potential, so I am trying to be patient with this one and give it time. That volume represents 1 day out of 5, since this is a weekly chart.

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GSL DAILY – Global Shipping started to push higher Monday, up 11%, but this can run higher, since this is exactly like the energy stock set ups.

 

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DAC  ( sorry, not DAL as written on the chart) – This is a shipper service too, and it looks ready to go. This was Monday morning and it was actually down.  It was at $4.36,  so how did it end the day?

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DAC closed the day up 9% at $4.78, so it does look ready to run. This can be bought above the 50sma with a stop under that 50sma.

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CORONAVIRUS TREATMENT

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COCP – We have traded COCP and it is starting to break above the 200sma.  I don’t own it and wont buy it again this time, but we have seen these run QUICKLY, so I thought that I would post it. This could be bought with a TIGHT Stop.

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DTIL -I also owned this one, but it never broke higher from that long consolidation.  Midday they announced  a first dosing on a human for Multiple Myeloma. It now looks like it may finally break higher and run.  If you like the Biotech / Corona virus sector, this is a buy with a stop under recent lows too. (Next chart)

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DTIL –  At the end of the day it had over 2 million in volume and may be ready to go. Put a stop under the red support line of the 50sma.  if this runs, gains could be good.  In November it ran from $6 to $24 in 1 month.

 

HALL JUNE 4  – Financial stocks have this set up too. I  posted this and said that I own HALL and IMH , and they have the exact same set up.  This was a buy, since it is a Nice long base breaking out.   I recommended this here for you all, and I know a few took this trade. It was $3.75 here…

 

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HALL  – It is almost $6 now. The volume is really coming in, so I am holding HALL & IMH . If this ever formed a bowl or cup, it would be great gains. If this dips from here, it may be a BUY or a good place to add.

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IMH  I bought this at the 50 sma and I like the volume here too, so I am going to hang on to it. If you bought 1 or both of these with me,  they COULD eventually work their way back to the highs. I may sell some as it goes higher, but if it keeps climbing, I’ll just trail a stop.

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ONDK – This is another financial stock that I found with a similar base.  This one is just breaking out now, so I think that it is a buy. That volume is strong. It MIGHT pull back to the trend line or 50sma.  If it does, I will buy it.

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BY REQUEST AIRLINE STOCKS. I actually covered airline stocks , but now they are extended from their bases. 

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This was American Air back in April  

 

AAL- last week it popped big, and … 

 

JBLU also popped, so they are extended, but…

MESA – I think that MESA Air is just getting started for any that wanted an airline stock. It closed at $4.79, still at this break out line.

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NAKD  – I own this as a lottery ticket.  It is a bit choppy and sideways for now, but has good potential.

 

NAKD – It closed with good volume and the weekly chart is very very good looking too.  

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CSU –  (Senior living) –  This was up 10% when I saw it Monday Morning. I liked the base and thought “This  looks nice, but this sector hasn’t been hot, has it”.  When I came back it was up 112%!!

So maybe  more  sectors will join the race as bases begin to break higher? If we are headed for a market blow off top, we may see many stocks that were left for dead in their bases, start ripping higher, dancing to the market rhythms until the music stops.  For now, while waiting for the Miners to get ready for another launch higher,  good money is being made in stocks moving out of their nice steady bases.  It becomes a BUY THE DIP or BUY THE BREAK OUT type environment.

I know that there are a lot of stocks listed here, but that was meant to show you what is happening, and what I am seeing.  It also just gives our traders more choices.  We can’t buy them all, but 1 or 2 at the lows may pay off.   You can also start small and add if it gets running.  Don’t buy the overextended ones, they can easily pull back and go against you.   If they do pull back with a market dip to the 10sma, some of  these could become buy candidates down the road, and I will keep an eye out for that and put them in future reports.  Take ones that are just getting going out of their bases and you may see some rather good %-Gains quickly.