Thursday May 28th – Surprises

 

The SPX had a nice reversal back above that 200sma Wednesday.  It dropped down and filled the gap, and then it closed up 40 Points. This remains bullish.

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QQQ – The same gap fill happened with the Q’s.

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WTIC  was steady above the 10sma.

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The XOP and many of the Energy Stocks dropped, filled gaps and moved higher into the close. Our picks of MRO, PVAC, OKE, APA, CLB, CVI, etc all still look Bullish.

 

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I used this chart in the morning to show that GLD is basically in a Box Consolidation. We had a run higher out of the ICL, this ‘box’ consolidates the gains and  sets up what should be the next move higher.

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So with GOLD  we broke from a triangle and we back tested it Tuesday and Wednesday. Does this need a deeper dip for a dcl?  No, I don’t see it that way.   This could now be the launch-pad. And was that back test surprising?..

 

You may recall that in early May I compared the triangle from 2019 with the one forming  in early May.

NOTICE THAT WE GOT A BREAK OUT & BACK TEST THEN AND…

 

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NOTICE THAT WE GOT A BREAK OUT & BACK TEST in BOTH. These are still playing out almost identically.  So, can you see what happened next after the false break out and back test in 2019 at the blue arrow? GOLD RAN HIGHER and didn’t need a ‘very clear’ drop into a dcl, because it formed a triangle.

 

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GOLD  – Could we tag that 50sma?  I would have thought so,  and a little more sideways chop could do that too. You know how these markets can be, though…if people are waiting to buy at the 50sma, this may just run away higher from here and leave them behind.

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SILVER  MIDDAY I was trying to point out that the ‘dip’  was not resembling a dip into a dcl at all. This is more of a Bull Flag and as it reversed at that 10sma.  Silver Miners eventually caught a bid and moved higher with reversals into the close too, so…

 

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SILVER  AT THE CLOSE –  This is a bullish consolidation and I really wouldn’t be surprised if it takes off higher any day now. In a Bull, you often get surprises to the upside.

 

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With the Miners, we have a VARIETY of things going on. Notice the difference in the following Miners…

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NEM – Newmont dropped hard, but landed at the 38% Fib & reversed. It also lost and regained the 50sma, that might have been a stop run or shake out.

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BARRICK  – Barrick looks similar and did the same,  So….

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GDX  had a bit of a deeper drop than GDXJ, but it still hasn’t violated anything.  If my reversal at the start of May is a dcl, this could be a 1/2 cycle low, since GOLD & SILVER hardly dropped yesterday. Now let’s look at these Juniors…

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Now look at these Juniors as an example of Miners that hardly dropped at all. 

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EQX  had more of a sideways chop and consolidation and was actually up 5% Wednesday. This was not much of a drop at all.

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IAG was also up 4.5% and has moved sideways, so this doesn’t have much of a drop either.

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GORO is consolidating above the 50 sma in a box consolidation. It closed up 6%  – very nice!

 

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Therefore, with a variety of  junior Miners holding up very well, and not dropping like NEM & BARRICK did,  GDXJ  reversed  at support and closed green Wednesday.  That looks like a 1/2 cycle low in a steep climb, but we’ll see if this has finished the selling or not.

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 ISVLF  was also up almost 6%.

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VGZ has just been a steady climb higher, and closed up .

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CDE & AG both lost and tried to immediately regain that 200sma.

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So when we discussed GORO and a few others above, we said that it looked like a run out of the lows, a box consolidation, and then what should be expect?  They usually break higher continuing the bull run. Let’s see an example…

 

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EXK BOX CONSOLIDATION:   IN 2016 EXK WAS AN EXAMPLE OF A RUN OUT OF THE LOWS, A SIDEWAYS BOX CONSOLIDATION FOR 2-3 WEEKS TOO, AND THEN IT MADE A SOLID RUN HIGHER.

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The General Markets dropped and reversed higher, they look bullish.    What about precious Metals?  As seen above: GOLD dropped to back test the triangle and SILVER remains bullishly set up in a bull flag. The pull back has been minimal and as seen above, MANY MINERS  are still holding up very well.  These Miners that I pointed out above remain  bullish set ups.   Silver continued sideways and closed higher yesterday, and it still looks like a BULL FLAG. Many Junior Miners reversed and were up around 6% by the close.  They hardly pulled back, so while some may have become nervous watching NEM & BARRICK drop sharply, it didn’t reflect what was going on with Gold, Silver, and many of the other  Miners.

  Since ‘surprises come to the upside’ in a Bull Market,  I wouldn’t be surprised if  those waiting for a deeper dip in these Miners are left behind waiting.  Look again at the charts above.  So many Miners are really just going sideways in a box consolidation , and look ready to start another run higher at any time.

Let’s see what Thursday and Friday bring our way.

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Enjoy your trading!

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~ALEX

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Yesterday I discussed the Bullish set up in the URANIUM SECTOR with this chart of URA and a few Uranium stocks.  Well they do look ready to move higher now too.

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CCJ was a buy here in Wednesdays report…

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CCJ  shot up Thursday.

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I mentioned :  You also may want to watch DNN, UEC, NXE in this sector. They are ABOVE their 200 sma and look good.

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DNN was up about 6% and looks good.

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URG  recovered that 200 sma with a big reversal  Wednesday

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UUUU – was mentioned as a buy set up as it crawled along the 200sma last week and yesterday…

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UUUU is breaking higher too

 

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 NEM – I just noticed the climb in NEM in 2019 was similar to 2020. After a strong run higher, it chopped upward in a channel, then it had a quick slam down to the 50sma. Unfortunately, back in 2019, it just chopped sideways after that big drop.    I don’t know what will happen from here, but I like the juniors that have been steady gainers with consolidations.

 

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I wanted to show my ‘TRADERS” something that could be revealing.

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BJ  – released earnings and took off from $28 to $38.  Obviously they did well during the shut down, because shoppers were stocking up on large quantities of warehouse goods. Well, with that in mind…

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COST  -COSTCO has decided to release their earnings during the market on Thursday. It is a guess, but you would imagine that COSTCO also did well during the shut down/ shopping process.  This could POP after earnings, but I would say that this is a risk or gamble for a day trader only.  This is a Bullish set up.