Tuesday April 14th – These Cats Are Really Stretching Out!
We have entered a time that I wanted to really pay attention if I was long the General Markets. I am personally now mostly long Miners and 3 Oil / Energy stocks, but this is an important area for those riding the trades in SPX, SOXL, QQQ, etc, and I do still see Bullishness, but let’s take a look…
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SPX ON DAY 14 – We are approaching the 50 sma, and THIS is where I said that I would start to look for signs of strength or weakness. We haven’t tagged that 50 sma yet, and I see this current set up 2 different ways…
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SPX MORE BEARISH STRUGGLE is a rising wedge formation. I do not think that the lows get taken out, since it is an ICL, but it could get retested into the next dcl ( a little something like I drew here).
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SPX MORE BULLISH BUYING – A bullish view would be a break higher soon and even above that 50sma. Then we would no longer see a rising wedge, we could see a channel.
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ADDING TO THE BULLISH VIEW: I WILL SAY THIS” AMD, TSEM, MU , etc look Bullish at this point. I already had them as BUYS earlier with SOXL, they are a ‘Hold” or ‘add‘ with a stop, if you ask me. See the next chart too.
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WTIC – Oil could be a 1-2 of 1-2-3-4-5, but we need more time to see how this plays out. I still feel that it will play out bullishly, because…
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XOP – The Energy stocks have been green day after day coming out of their lows.
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Oil was down again, but stocks like MRO were up again. It was up 7% Monday.
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PVAC was up 28% with a high volume spike, so I still own 3 of these and will try to hold them for when Oil moves higher too. ( I was going to switch over to Miners at this point, but so far these are still acting correctly, so I have a mixed variety of positions).
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THESE CATS ARE REALLY STRETCHING OUT!
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GOLD – There is more than 1 way to measure an inverse H&S , but both put this over $1750. One puts Gold as high as $1850+. We are on day 19 and I have been saying that…
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SILVER – I have been saying that if Gold does THAT big of a run out of the current inverse H&S, and then SILVER starts to try to catch up, you are really going to see Silver stocks move quickly (playing catch up) in a Big Way. We may be seeing that take place currently.
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GDX FROM THE WEEKEND REPORT – I need to repeat Something here first: I have had too many readers ‘worrying’ about Cycle counts, and as a result, they hold back, wait, and miss the move. I have repeatedly mentioned at prior ICLs for everyones benefit , ” I Don’t get hung up on Cycle count when Technical patterns break out. I follow technical patterns.” Below is what I pointed out with GDX bullishly breaking out on day 18. Please read it…
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GDX added another 7% on Monday day 19 and is now back at the highs. That was a HUGE shake out / V-Bottom.
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GDX WEEKLY – And stepping back, we are close to a major break out of this multiyear giant consolidation. What about the dcl that could come on day 33ish?…
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GDX WEEKLY – We could see a break out and that dcl could be a back test later. IF you missed some of this move, keep this in mind: The next DCL is only starting the 2nd daily cycle, so it will be a strong buy too.
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GDXJ was up 8% Monday and is slightly lagging GDX, so the juniors are playing catch up as expected, and the gains in this sector are always Big. I can picture this
1. Running to the highs and back testing the 50sma as a dcl, or
2. Breaking out to new highs and back testing that break out as the next dcl.
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It was a great week last week as Miners climbed out from their second higher low, and now this week started off with a loud bang too. I was asked in the live area where I am planning on selling my miners, but right now I am not ‘planning’ on selling or using overhead targets. I will explain that below, but I just want to remind everyone that the next dcl is going to be a ‘Strong Buy’. This is the first daily cycle out of an ICL, and the second one should take up to even higher highs. At times I sell partial positions ( Maybe on day 28 or so depending on how extended things are), other times I let it ride, because individual Miners may act individually. The most important thing to keep in mind is that we should have a BUY at the next dcl, and Miners should be heading even higher. Period. Below I will discuss a bit more on Miners.
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Enjoy your Tuesday trading!
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~ALEX
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THESE ARE MOVES DURING JUST THE FIRST DAILY CYCLE FOLLOWING A CRASH. WE JUST SAW A MAJOR SHAKE OUT AND MINERS ARE ROCKETING BACK HIGHER.
That shake out scared people out and many don’t know how to get back in after a move like that. We had RailRoad Tracks, a break of the 10sma, Cycle counts, and a break of the down trend to help us identify the need to buy back in near the lows.
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NEM For starters: It is amazing that NEM crashed with the markets and is now at not only new recent highs, but it is also at the 2011 Highs! I feel that we are going to see most Miners do the same thing in their own time, as GOLD reaches back to that $1900 area.
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So NG crashed and rocketed higher, back above the 2016 highs and is well on its way to match back up with Gold at the 2011 highs. Do you see the potential here?
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KGC – I mentioned that I bought KGC weeks ago, and added as it broke above & crawled along the top of the 50sma. It was now popping toward the recent highs midday yesterday and…
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Then KGC broke out to new recent highs. That is a huge $2.75 to $6.32 run .
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KGC closed a tad lower , so is that all that we can expect?…
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You can see that if KGC wants to return to where it was when Gold was $1900 in 2011, it has a LONG WAY to go 🙂 The current move looks rather small compared to the potential.
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So I looked for a laggard yesterday and bought USAS. It has a higher low and looks ready to start playing catch up.
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PAAS – My march 19th charts were discussing the potential in some of these after we saw Rail Road tracks form. Could PAAS really go from $11 to $26 again?
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Now we see that good progress has been made in PAAS, but it is only 1/2 way to the highs. It made a higher low after hitting the down trend line and is now breaking through the 50 sma. It was a buy yesterday or today too. It looks ready to break through that 50sma soon.
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Getting hung up on Cycle counts: Again, I have had people tell me that they decided not to buy because the cycle count was in the teens. Well, waiting could cause those thinking like that to have to enter later-at higher prices. Take GPL for example…
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GPL – It has been lagging behind. It has been choppy while forming a higher low, but boom- it was suddenly slicing through that 50sma yesterday, and closed up 31%. See the chart.
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EXK & FSM were ‘Buys’ yesterday if you ask me too. They can also be bought today, I bought EXK yesterday. let me show you what I was also looking at…
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EXK was at this level after the 2008 sell off. It ramped up over time and doubled, tripled, quadrupled, etc. I think that we are seeing Gold return to 2011 highs ( and more over time) and Silver will ramp up too. So…
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Adding the run from 2008 to the current lows gives you this over time. $1 to $13 is an amazing trade, whether you catch some of it or all of it.
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AUY FRIDAY – AUY was breaking out as a laggard Friday, just starting to get through that 50sma.
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AUY MONDAY – Again with these I am seeing follow through buying and they are catching up to the leaders. These want to get back to recent highs.
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IAG FRIDAY – It was also Lagging behind the leaders, but making progress at the 50sma…
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IAG popped 11% and is also now getting that follow through and playing catch up too.
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GORO – I mentioned that I bought GORO as a lagging Miner with a higher low and good potential a while back. It is just now getting to the 50 sma, and imagine that this could possibly do $2 to $4 to $6 all in one first daily cycle. What about the bigger picture?
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GORO looks like it had hardly even moved based on what it did coming out of the 2008 smack down. In fact…
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GORO – I can add that run on to where Goro is now ( $4) and we get a $4 to $25 Move. It took 2 years from 2008, but you can see that 2 legs of that move were practically straight up. “You had to be in it to win it”, as they say. It ran up, then sideways, and then straight up.
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AXU – Buy a laggard or wait? Well, AXU was lagging with a higher low too, but now it popped 14% Monday. That makes it difficult for some to buy, but if you wait too long, it could run 100% higher the way these are running.
GSS, THM & TRX and a few others are still at the lows, but the volume is increasing and they are starting to pop. The way these are popping? It is worth a trade or BUY & HOLD if you ask me.
