Wednesday April 1
FROM YESTERDAYS REPORT : SPX – Monday saw the SPX climb up the 8 ema. This CAN still drop to the 10sma, but so far the rally out of the lows continues. We discussed SPXL, SOXL, UDOW, UPRO, etc as leveraged trades, I expect these to continue higher over time.
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SPX – on Tuesday the general markets started to move higher, but then dropped into the close. It is not a big drop and as mentioned, this CAN drop to the 10sma and remain bullishly set up.
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As always, you want to use a stop, since there is still a chance that this is not an ICL, but just a dcl. If so, this could peak L.T. and break down for a larger A-B-C Sell off.
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WTIC – We have a swing low in oil, but NOT a confirmed daily cycle low. Oil needs to push above the 10sma to add conviction as to whether a low is in place or not. OIL CAN continue to drop & chop, because some daily cycles have been 40-50 days long. That said, there is some divergence starting to show. A low should be relatively close.
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It is also important to remember that Oil inventory reports are released on Wednesdays. With oil only on day 40, Oil can do a real stop run crash & reversal, or break above the 10sma, so we’ll see how that goes.
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YESTERDAY I SAID THAT GOLD was forming that bull flag, but I didn’t trust it, because Silvers bull flag gave away. I thought that this would break down, but that isn’t a big deal, since the 10sma is well below price.
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GOLD – Gold dropped and I saw bears coming out with that drop, but I am not viewing that drop as bearish. Gold is at the 10sma, and as Gold dropped $40+, Silver actually went Green, and Miners dropped minimally, so I am not concerned. This could be an inverse H&S too.
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SILVER – Silver lost its bull flag a day before Gold did, and then it didn’t drop further when Gold dropped $40+. Silver remains above the 10sma.
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Gold dropped $40 and the Miners dropped slightly, but the entire drop isn’t even 50%. It is a 38% drop from the overall run out of the lows, so at this point this is not a bearish set up. ALONG WITH THAT- LET ME SHOW YOU SOMETHING BULLISH…
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LET ME SHOW YOU SOMETHING BULLISH
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GDX MONTHLY – The MONTH OF MARCH ended Tuesday, and the monthly chart looks like a very bullish monthly reversal.
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GDXJ MONTHLY – We see a monthly reversal ‘stop run’ or ‘Shake out’ in GDXJ too.
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Nothing has changed since the last report, except that with pull backs and dips in the General Markets and Miners, you may get a chance to add to current positions. I usually wait for a reversal to take place, preferably near support, such as around the 10sma. I want to show you a few trade ideas below, but remember that the Moves in these markets lately are VERY BIG, so smaller position size is wise for many. Use the opening picture as a guide 🙂 Enjoy your Wednesday trading!
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~ALEX
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COPPER– Copper looks to have put in a bottom with a draginfly doji, and now we have a break above the 10sma. so…
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FCX – Some of the copper stocks are also setting up bullishly. FCX popped from under $5 to almost $8, and has put in a higher low, reversing right off of the 10sma. This is a buy with a stop under the 10sma. See also HBM, TGB, etc.
X – US Steel had a nice higher low, reversal off of the 10sma, with increased volume too. Commodities may finally be bottoming. This is a buy too.
STLD – Another steel stock with a higher low and bullish set up. This already moved from $15 to $23 though. Do we have one still near the lows?
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ZEUS is still at a double bottom low, and the set up is bullish, with nice divergence.
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PLG – Plug reversed off of the 10sma also.
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TLRY – I restarted a position in TLRY, even though there is a possibility that it can drop down to that 10sma. I rode this from $3 to $10, so I don’t mind starting a starter position early. A drop & reversal at the red line would be a great entry ( a possible $5 to $13 run?).
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UBERS bull flag pointed out yesterday is still valid.
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ZM – This was ZM in Feb that I pointed out back then as a Bull flag similar to UBERS. Did it move higher.
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While we’re here, ZM runs, then it consolidates, then it runs and consolidates. It has been consolidating near the 10sma, so it may be preparing to run higher soon. Zooms business is surging with videoconferencing being the way many businesses meet with employees & customers these days.
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THESE CAN BE VERY DANGEROUS: BE CAREFUL
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These stocks are either going to recover and make great money, or they’ll go bankrupt and become a heart breaker. I saw some of these charts from my Oil / Energy list and I almost fell over at the POSSIBLE opportunities that these may present. Before we continue- OIL DOES NOT HAVE A CONFIRMED DCL YET, but some of these stocks are extremely interesting to me. Again
1. Exceptional opportunity? or
2. Could go bankrupt? Let me explain…
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I almost can’t believe how much upside potential CLB could have. This tiny double bottom was a pop from $7.50 to $12? And as a higher low on the 10sma, is it getting ready to run to fill that gap at $23?
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Can you believe this? Oil hasn’t even bottomed and OKE ran from $12 to $25? And has a gap at $60. This is amazing, but you also need to realize that…
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This is amazing ( $12 to $25), but you also need to realize that it could just as easily drop from $25 to $15. THAT – WOULD – HURT! So do you play this? or NOT? Please play carefully if you do.
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PUMP is another one that bottomed and I bought it. It ran to $3, and dropped to $2, so now it is finding support at the 10 sma for the last 3 days. The potential is hard to ignore after such a beat down, so A SMALL starter position could be bought here near support, and Use A Stop.
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PVAC is another crushed OIL & NATGAS stock. This was $45 last year. It dropped straight to $1, and already bounced to $3 ( 200%). Now it is another one with a higher low, riding along the 10sma as support. A bounce to fill that overhead gap at $11 is 270%. BUT THESE ARE NOT GUARANTEES, THESE HAVE GREAT POTENTIAL, YET ARE DANGEROUS.
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SLCA was $18 last year. I used to trade this s a Fracking play. It crashed down to below $1 and has bounced to $2. NOW LET ME GIVE YOU ANOTHER WARNING WITH THESE…
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NOW LET ME GIVE YOU ANOTHER WARNING WITH THESE…
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SLCA – These may not fly back to prior prices. They also can bounce around and base out for a while, so it is not a ‘get rich quick’ trade, but the potential is definitely there if Oil recovers.
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VLO – many are familiar with Valero, and it has also just crashed from $100 to $30 and then bounced almost 100%.
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Exxon Mobil is also familiar to many. XOM dropped from $80 to $30 and is now above the 10sma as a higher low. This can be bought with a stop.
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WTI – and the lower priced companies have similar set ups. NOG, ERF, WTI, LPI, OAS, DNR, WLL, etc .
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