Tuesday March 31st
SPX On FRIDAY I was thinking that Monday day 5th might see a drop to the 10sma & then the bounce would continue…
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SPX – Monday saw the SPX climb up the 8 ema and it appears that the dip MIGHT be over. This CAN still drop to the 10sma, but so far the rally out of the lows continues. We discussed SPXL, SOXL, UDOW, UPRO, etc as leveraged trades, I expect these to continue higher over time.
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QQQ – In the morning I also mentioned that so far the QQQ was climbing up the 8 ema. You may recall that this is what it used to do in the prior bull run.
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So the NASDAQ closed higher also.
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WTIC – Last week I discussed oils cycles count. It had time to break to a new low, extending the cycle count closer to a more common 40 day time period.
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WTIC – Now on day 38, Monday saw Oil break to a new low, and we do see divergence as it broke to new lows. With Oils new lows and a reversal, we could finally have the DCL. It is best to Wait for confirmation, but…
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The XLE has a higher low on the 10sma, with a low forming 8 days ago.
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The XOP is forming a flat base, and the lows were 8 days ago here too (so far).
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FROM THURSDAY – GOLD DAILY : Gold recovered quickly, so I thought that maybe we should expect a bull flag consolidation as a possibility.
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GOLD – So far we do have a bull flag forming. Hopefully it breaks higher, but I am now seriously having my doubts , because …
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SILVER – I thought that Silver was forming a bull flag, and it actually broke down toward the 10sma. That isn’t in itself bearish, just a bit short term disappointing. So now GOLD may break down to the 10sma too.
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GDX was rejected at the resistance area on day 8. SO FAR, we have a L.T. Daily Cycle, but price reached the 10sma and may find support there.
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WHAT IF GOLD & SILVER continue down to their 10sma? We’ll have to see if GDX & GDXJ break down further or can they resists that selling?
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And this is the less favorable possibility that I already pointed out for Miners. It is possible that they can return all the way back down to the lows like we saw in 2008. This happened on day 14 & 19, and this panicked a lot of people out of their positions, but the lows were still in place.
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So with the above chart of the GDX 2008 lows, it shows us that we just have to expect anything, and use stops as we see fit for our positions. The trading is fast out there, so again, if you are not in front of your screens you can reduce risk with smaller positions size and even less positions open.
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I had mentioned TQQQ, SOXL, UPRO, etc, and along with those are the stocks that traded well in the Bull Run. When I said that I bought SOXL, I also mentioned that AMD, MU, and other semis looked good. So Stocks like UBER, AMD, MU, SQ, etc. have bounced and may be bull flagging or dipping to the 10sma as another area to buy or add. Check your lists, some of these are moving back up toward their 50sma.
I have a few ideas below, and will have a more diverse group in the future reports. Enjoy your trading!
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~ALEX
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This is what I mean by fast trading. These 2 Medical Marijuana stocks came off of the bottom so fast that they were up 50 to 100% in a few days, and now the pull back is 13% & 6 %. This is NOT an easy ride. So you need to make sure that you decide whether or not this kind of movement is for you or not.
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ACB – $0.60 to $1.20 is a 100% gainer, but the 13% drop would not be fun if you entered late.
OGI -$1.40 to $2.20 produced great %-Gains, but this can drop to the 10sma. That also may make a nice area to add ,
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TLRY – How about $2.50 to $8.50 in days? That was a topping candle Friday and then it dropped 27% Monday.
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My wife works in a hospital, so I asked her which companies supply their safety equipment, Medical supplies, etc. When she told me in early March about 3M, Kimberly Clark, Owens & Minor, etc, I looked up the stocks and they were acting horribly! They were selling off, extremely choppy, etc- until last week. So I will present them here, and you can keep an eye on them. You can take a small position or wait to buy a pull back, but please note that these were trading VERY RADICALLY up until last week.
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MMM – 3M makes the masks that are being used in hospitals. It sold off in Feb-March and was extremely choppy, but it is possibly stabilizing now.
OMI – Owens and Minor is a medical supplier that manufactures and sources medical surgical products. This is a weekly chart that looks very promising, but I should mention that it just doubled from $4 to $8 in 3 weeks.
Kimberly Clark – This was the first company that my wife mentioned in early March, and when I looked this stock up? I said, “No Way!”. It was chopping violently in the month of March. This companies stock was extremely difficult to trade before last week, but possibly as of last week, it may have bottomed? It is now racing higher, but it could still get choppy.
ABT – Abbott supplies the test kits for the Corona Virus. It was also extremely choppy before last week, and very untrade-able. I saw on the news that they are ramping up production of their rapid test kits for the virus.
