Thursday – No Safe Place?
U.S. President Trump addressed the Nation Wednesday night and the Futures plummeted. If that holds overnight & into the morning, it is possible that markets crash the circuit breaker again and halt trading. It is also possible that we see a capitulation low form from such a slam down ( temporary low). Why? We are nearing my targets as you will see. But first…
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A Reminder From Yesterdays Report: Especially if you are working full time, this choppiness can be disheartening. There is nothing wrong with staying in cash & trying to deploy at the lows of a precious Metals ICL & ride it higher. If you must trade, just keep position size reasonable. Never trade more than you are willing to lose. It is Always up to you to how you control your risk. 🙂
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SPX – My downside targets have not been hit yet, but we are getting close. I have 2600 as the initial target, and a deeper fib target would be rough;y 2400 ( 2393). How does this match up with the Big Picture chart from 2 weeks ag0? …
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SPX – It lines up well with support that we have been watching in the weekend big picture reports. The short trade (SQQQ, SOXS) has played out well, but I closed 1/2 of mine and will close the rest soon. We should expect a bounce soon.
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WTIC #1 – Oil is also near that 2016 $26 price area, but it has not broken that number. A measured target was already met and the drop has extended a little bit. That was not surprising, because our daily cycle count was still too early for a dcl…
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WTIC #2 – With a day 23 low, it seems way too early for a dcl, but that 25% drop in 1 day is NOT Normal. I discussed that this could bounce, chop around, and then slightly break the lows for a dcl, or just plunge to maybe $20. So far, we’ve seen the bounce & choppiness. The Wednesday Oil Inventory Report did drop Oil , but it remained well above the lows.
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GOLD – Gold has a day 6 peak, with divergence. Silver & the Miners look much weaker than Gold, but Gold should eventually roll over & start to drop into a dcl too. Currently the Miners look ugly…
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GDX – With Gold still up near the highs, the Miners just look weak and ugly. They dropped and closed under the 200sma again. This is choppy and not easy to short or hold long, so I am waiting for a deeper drop ( over time) to bring about an ICL- A great buying opportunity, probably in April or May.
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GDX – This may continue to just chop around back testing the 50sma, and the 200sma. It is difficult to hold Miners when these start to drop into a dcl or especially an ICL. I don”t like to give gains back, so I don’t hold miners into an ICL drop.
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I wanted to keep this report short and to the point, compared to the past few reports. Why? These Markets have been extremely choppy for the average trader. Even holding the SQQQ trade has been hard, because the Markets have such large wild swings. The DJIA drops 2000 points in 2 days, then bounces over 1000 points luring in the Bulls, only to drop 3000 points again in the next 2 days. Waiting for things to level off is not a bad idea, especially if you are not in front of the screens all day. If you are trading, keep it small to control risk.
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Enjoy your Thursday trading !
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~ALEX
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I discussed a few possible short term (small positioned) trade ideas yesterday in OIL. LPI actually had shot up 116 %. Others Popped 20-40% too. Well, so far many remains sideways, but I wanted to point out a stock here as an example of what I am seeing or looking for. Knowing that OIL Can either bounce or drop further due to daily cycle counts, I realize that this could go either way. Let’s take a look…
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WLL – I do see how this could be a bear flag. It has gone sideways / dropped / sideways again / dropped, etc. HOWEVER…
1. I also see a bullish falling wedge too
2. A break of the downtrend could become bullish,
3. Each sharp drop has lighter volume and the MACD appears to be leveling off on this drop.
