Friday March 6th
FROM YESTERDAY
.
With the ‘top’ of the NASDAQ in 1999- 2000 , we bounced slightly higher than 50% and almost to the 50 sma before rolling over again.
.
FROM YESTERDAY SPX – Notice that we are there right now- we have a 50% Bounce in the SPX, and tagged the 10 sma.
.
The S&P dropped from there Thursday and sold off , still unable to get above the 10sma. We are now on day 23 of what could be a 40 day daily cycle. This could get very ugly or at least very choppy s selling increases.
.
NOTE: I’m thinking that People are nervous about the 1000 pointt sell off Thursday. Will they be willing to hold into the weekend? I wouldn’t be surprised to see some follow through selling Friday, especially into the close. I added to my SQQQ yesterday. We’ll see.
n
WTIC – Oil was rejected at the 10 sma on the Wednesday, the ‘Oil inventory Report’ day. It then dropped a bit lower Thursday and the MACD is curling down. This is a failed daily cycle.
.
PRECIOUS METALS
.
GOLD FROM YESTERDAYS REPORT – GOLD is still standing out as different from Silver and the Miners. With higher lows and higher highs, it can still get to new highs again. We are only on day 3, but it paused Wednesday.
.
GOLD – Gold melted up slowly all day, I captured this at lunch time.
.
GOLD – So remember, we have GOLD with a ‘higher low’ as the 2nd DCL, the drop did NOT break below the last dcl. So it does not have a failed daily cycle and thus it can easily make new highs, but it still can roll over as L.T. with a ‘peak’ at any time, so we just be aware of that. ALSO, GOLD RISING TO NEW HIGHS COULD DRAG SOME MINERS UP WITH IT.
,
SILVER looks quite a bit weaker, but if you look at the move out of the December lows, it was gradual at first too, then broke higher. I do not know how Silver will run, but I drew the next chart yesterday…
.
I wrote: SILVER crashed down Friday and is doing a bounce here. It is oversold, so I would think that it could get up to the 50 sma. Note for Friday: If it does what the Miners are doing, it could be that money is flowing out of the markets and into Precious metals. Lets look at the Miners…
,
YESTERDAY I SAID:
This is only day 3 and GDX is back above the 50 sma and it can run even higher. As a 3rd daily cycle that failed below the 2nd, I would expect it to be L.T., but because GOLD did NOT fail the 2nd daily cycle low, we have a mixed picture. I am seeing stronger looking Gold stocks, weaker looking Silver stocks.
,
GDX did continue higher. If you bought the reversal candle when a dcl was due, you can raise a stop to under the 50sma. The volume is decent so I’m going to say this…
.
I’m going to say this: IS IT TOO LATE TO BUY MINERS? MAYBE / MAYBE NOT IF YOU USE STOPS, because We cannot tell…
1. When this will top
2. If Miners will follow the market again like last Thursday & Friday? or
3. Will Miners become safe haven this time, and break to new highs. If you didn’t buy anything due to the sharp ugly drop last week, that totally makes sense.
Look at that 2 day drop on this chart! However, now it recovered the 50 sma on day 3 (Wednesday) and it could still be bought as maybe a shorter term trade with a tight stop at the 50sma. Normally I wouldn’t advise that with a crash like we saw Thursday & Friday , but again – I am looking at GOLD as a 3rd daily cycle day 4 that could peak on day 10? 12? 14?. It is tricky with this set up, we have that mixed picture, but Miners ignored market selling Thursday so…
.
GOLD is not a failed daily cycle and is also only on day 4 of a 3rd daily cycle, so it can run to $1700 and possibly even higher like I originally thought it would until day 10? 12? 14? It is an unknown & a bit of a higher risk at this point, so the choice is yours with this current set up. Some Miners may put in 2% / day and then you sell in a week or use a tight stop. OTHERS SHOULD WAIT FOR THE NEXT ICL DROP.
.
QUESTION BY EMAIL: It was mentioned in the live area that …” this might be an ICL drop, the ICL is behind us, and that should be kept in mind.” My answer to that is that I was not the one that said that and I disagree. Look at the chart & see that GOLD never made a new low, it didn’t even break under the last dcl, so it was not a failed daily cycle-so it does not fit that criteria to have been an ICL. Gold had a 1 day scary drop, an ICL is often more prolonged. GDX did crash, because it suddenly followed the markets Thursday & Friday, HOWEVER If Gold has its ICL ahead, I think MIners will follow Gold down then too. That ICL in Gold could come in May/June (I’ll keep my eyes on things).
.
So it is possible that we see a General Market sell off into the weekend, with people concerned about holding stocks through that weekend and some bad news growing over that time. Oil could break down too, but I/m thinking that Gold benefits and can get to that $1700, and we’ll watch it from there. THE WILD CARD WILL BE THE MINERS. Last week Miners joined the General Market and sold off into the weekend too( Thursday & Friday). So far Miners continued higher Thursday, the Markets sold off. WATCH THE MINERS FRIDAY FOR A CLUE if the General Markets sell down. Do they follow Gold or Stocks? ARE THEY A NEW SAFE HAVEN AT LAST? STOPS ARE ESSENTIAL IN THIS SET UP, but holding a few may pay off. Some bought the reversal DCL , and I would raise stops to the 50 sma now. Many Biotech stocks are holding up with market selling too, and I will discuss that & bitcoin briefly below.
.
Enjoy your Friday trading!
.
~ALEX
.
GBTC – I have been watching BITCOIN and I think this is a dcl, so I posted this in the live area, saying that I bought it pushing on the 50sma here. How did it close?
,
GBTC Closed up about 9%, and closed above the 10sma, 50sma, and the down trend line. When this runs, it often does a nice slow steady climb, as seen in January & February. ALSO, The drop in the stock market Thursday did not affect GBTC- It closed near the highs with good volume. So this is still a buy if it resists the selling of the general markets.
,
INO SELL – I usually mention that when a stock gets extended, I like to lock in at least some gains, in case it pulls back. THAT IS MY STYLE. Well recently I said that I sold a partial position at $9 , then I sold more here Thursday & posted the chart. I think that it averaged roughly $8.85. Later…
,
INO took off another $1+ above $10 🙂 , closing up another 22% . What can you do? I have a plan and have to stick to it, and I can always try to just ride out the rest. A sudden drop like INO had last January will wipe away a lot of profit if I don’t lock some in. Look at Januarys drop, that can happen again.
,
NVAX – I had pointed out NVAX on the red 10sma & it reversed. I warned that this can drop to the blue line or take off, you just cant tell, but the SECTOR is on fire as some biotech work on a vaccine for Coronavirus. ( I Bought this and I hear that others followed- JUST Know that this is HIGH risk or High reward. Keep positions small /reasonable.
,
NVAX -So it has started higher along that 10sma. At first it dropped and went very red, but still landed on the 10sma & then went higher. IT MIGHT keep climbing as that vaccine is being developed ( it can also crash- this trade is NOT for everyone).
,
VXRT is just like NVAX- the charts are twins. Scroll up & back from the NVAX chart to this one & you’ll see the same thing. It is for the same reason, they are also involved with a Coronavirus treatment. IT IS ALSO AS RISKY, look at these price swings! In 1 week it went from $1 to $3.50 , and back to $1.75. THAT WILL DAMAGE YOUR CONFIDENCE if you are staring at your account and not the charts 🙂
,
BCRX – I like BCRX for a few reasons. They just released earnings and it shot up 20% and then sold down & filled that gap. That is good volume and a good reaction to ‘earnings’. It may pull back as shown, it may take off, but let me show you something…
,
BCRX – There is a wide open gap that usually offers no resistance on thee way up, so this could run much higher, especially with earnings already behind it.
