Thursday February 6th
SPX – This is day 3, we have a gap similar to the gap on day 3 of the last daily cycle. The markets went sideways & dipped a bit to the 8 ema then to fill that gap.
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I WANT TO MENTION THAT SPOTIFY, PELOTON, TWILIO, and a few others came out with what looked like Good earnings, and they dropped after hours. The 3 mentioned here dropped quite a bit, so we need to keep an eye on the markets, since an ICL can be due during this daily cycle. You may want to watch SPOT, PTON, TWLO, and yesterdays SHOP today after the markets open. UBER & TWTR report Thursday.
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WTIC – Oil may have pu in a swing low, it is due, but we still do not have confirmation with a close above the 10sa.
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To Thomas Yarbrough- The Oil / Energy Sector looks to be bottoming =)
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XOP – We saw some BIG Percentage moves in Energy, and the lows are likely in place. This is a buy as it passes the 8 ema. We have our list of Energy Stocks and they looked really good Wednesday.
We have discussed and traded many Energy stocks, so consult your watch lists, these could experience some FAST short cover. DNR, WLL, LPI, WTI, OAS, QEP, BTE, TUSK, PUMP, etc
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DNR- We saw a big 10% Pop in DNR, but I wouldn’t exactly wait for a pull back to enter the trade. Why not? Take a look at the run in December out of the low. NO PULL BACK ENTRY .
WLL – I bought WLL Wednesday morning when it was already up about 6%, and it closed up 10%. Notice how that 10% looks like a TINY move compared to the potential. In fact, that little DEC run was roughly $4 to $8! Yes, that’s 100%.
These Energy stocks are very oversold & may experience a sharp short covering rally for days. My advice in the live area was not to wait for a pull back, but instead it may be best to at least start a partial position, and then you can add to that position if it dips. IF THESE GAP OPEN IN THE MORNING, that is a bit different. It is hard to buy a gap open and then watch it fill, so you might wait and see if the gap fills sometime during the day. You could also start really small just to have a position, and see if those gaps close where you can add later. I will cover these companies further in future reports if this is the bottom. I think we are now finally at the bottom.
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GOLD – Gold dropped to the 34 sma & reversed, closing $7 higher on Wednesday. Gold has been choppy, but is still near the highs .
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GOLD – Another view that would be bullish for the choppiness is the formation of a pennant, but we’ll just have to wait and see how this plays out. The move out of the ICL was choppy for over 4 weeks! 28 days sideways , and then a strong rally unfolded.
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SILVER – Silver is choppy, but closed slightly higher Thursday. It looks to have put in a dcl last week.
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GDX – Here we see that the move out of the November ICL was choppy too, but it shot up higher toward the end of that daily cycle. If that were to repeat here…
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GDX – This may be an A-B-C-D up, but for now it has been choppy and sideways. I also don’t like the MACD set up , so this may remain choppy.
NOTE: If you were a true Buy & Hold investor and bought the ICL in May at $20, GDX is still up 40% at $28.
If you bought the ICL before that one, you are up almost 100%, so the Miners ETF has been bullish despite the chop.
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NEM BY REQUEST – After recently breaking above the 2016 highs, it appears that NEM will get back to the 2012 Highs of $60 as its next target. I do not know if it will be a straight shot or if it will take its time, but so far the move is climbing nicely higher since November lows.
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In the last 2 reports I had a good number of trade set ups, so we can continue to see how those play out. As mentioned, I saw some earnings numbers yesterday that resulted in the stock dropping down quite a bit in after hours, so we want to be aware of when the companies that we own release their earnings. I was stopped out of JNUG Tuesday, so I put some of that money to work in Energy Stocks. I didn’t mention it in the live area very much, because the lows weren’t confirmed yet, but the gravestone Doji in Oil was encouraging, and the charts of many Oil Stocks looked bullish. It is at the lows, so a tight stop can be used.
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Enjoy your Thursday trading!
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~ALEX
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TSLA FROM YESTERDAY at $938– I said, ” This is just not sustainable. A parabolic run is awesome, no doubt about it, but I’ve seen this before & this really cannot keep going without consolidation ( Bull Flag) or crashing down. “
TSLA – Yesterday I said, ” I cannot recommend this, because it could also easily be at $600 next week.” TSLA actually hit $704 Yesterday. $938 in yesterdays chart to $704 for late buyers. Even if it bounces, that was NOT A FUN DROP. Do not buy parabolic runs unless they consolidate.
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EDXC – EDXC was a buy on Monday at the 34 sma near 9 cents, it then popped and I have an update…
EDXC – It Popped big on Tuesday and then put in a Doji Wednesday. A doji can signal indecision, so I am thinking that this may now chop into a bull flags or pause before hopefully running higher. It may do what NUGS did in the next chart…
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NUGS – Notice that NUGS Popped, then it reversed, but it just worked its way up that 8 ema. This was NUGS at 11 a.m. Wednesday…
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NUGS – And this is where it closed on Wednesday, up 22%. So EDXC may do something like this, working its way higher over time.
There are no real definable ‘Targets’ for these MJ JUNIORS as they work there way out of a base, so you need to just sell when you want to lock in gains. Sell a partial on the way up? Sell 1/2? Let it ride and see if it does a full recovery over time? It is up to you.
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RIOT – Along with the move in BITCOIN ( GBTC) Some of the blockchain stocks have been bottoming too. I posted RIOT and bought it Wednesday. This chart was at 10 a.m.
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RIOT did have some decent volume by the close, so as a short term trade it could get to the first point of resistance quickly, but RIOT also just announced that they were being investigated by the SEC, and the SEC dropped it. That was when it had the high volume POP last week. With that investigation concluded with no adverse findings, this may make a healthy recovery type run from these lows.
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MARA, RIOT, HVBTF, TEUM, SRAX, GBTC are also in the Blockchain area and popping.
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SPWR – Earnings come out on next Wednesday, Feb 12, but at this point SPWR looks to be bullishly putting in a round base. If this recovers to September highs, that is $15. The tough part is earnings next week, so either try a quick trade or you could just put it on a watch list and see where it is next week.
CDE – We discussed CDE in the comments section when CAL noticed that it broke a recent down trend line (not shown). It MIGHT be forming a cup, since it seems that Silver has put its dcl in place now. We’ll have to wait and see.
My Feb 3 chart of PAAS shows how cups have formed in the past in a Silver stock.
