Wednesday January 22 – Progress

 

 

JAN 15 NASDAQ chart as a review:  We’ve discussed the cycle count, the steady rise of the markets above the 13 sma, and last Wednesday JAN 15 we were on day 29, but the last cycle moved higher until day 39 so this could extend.  That could be 1-2 more weeks of rally.

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SPX CURRENTLY – So with the holiday Monday, Tuesday would now be day 32, we see a ‘pause’, and we’ll need more time to see if this is ready to dip into that dcl or will it just pause for a day or 2 & continue higher like it has recently.   We are due for a dip to a dcl, below the 10sma.

 

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WTIC – Oil found support at the 200sma last week and moved higher, but Tuesday Oil popped & dropped. Wednesday is the oil inventory report, so we’ll see if this breaks down or holds up. It is late in the cycle count, so that MIGHT be a dcl already in place if those lows aren’t broken. Do the Oil / Energy stocks give us a clue?

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XOP – I saw the XLE & XOP dropping through out the day, so I captured this, and then…

 

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XOP – I realized that that was a ‘tag’ or ‘back test’ of the 200sma, and now we have a break down through the 50sma. That isn’t bullish unless it recovers as a shake out.  THIS MAY BE A CLUE AS TO WHAT OIL IS ABOUT TO DO.  Let’s see a few individual stocks…

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DNR – The recent strong break out & Run is now breaking down. That is not looking bullish anymore…

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OAS – That is not bullish anymore either, so unless this sector recovers really quickly and turns these into shake outs, these are breaking down again.

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GOLD  –  After forming the cup,Gold continues to put on the handle that I discussed as a possibility. This was expected,  especially after that weekly reversal candle 2 weeks ago. Please read the chart.

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GOLD DAY 4 – The Fed MTG is next Wednesday, so that would be on day 11. Can gold meander for that long to form that handle?  Yes, it can, so I drew each day here.  We’ll just have to see how this goes since it also could just break & run higher.

 

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SILVER  – Silver made a new low while GOLD & The Miners did not. That makes this a new low on day 32, and that is the right timing for a dcl to form, so we’ll see if this low holds here or forms with another new low soon. We are due for that dcl.

 

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GDX  – Tuesday morning I posted this chart in the live area to show that this looks to be only day 4 as it crossed back above the 10sma ( With GOLD down).  How did GDX close?

 

 

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GDX  – THIS IS BULLISH.   GDX closed near the highs with good volume, it broke the short term down trend line,  so this looks  like a confirmed DCL and I added to my leverage again.  One concern is that this MIGHT go sideways and just get  choppy instead of just ramping up higher as Gold builds a handle. That isn’t good for leverage.

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GDXJ  – GDXJ has broken a downtrend line & closed above the 10sma. This looks like confirmation of a dcl and it is only day 4 so I added to JNUG.

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GDX / GLD RATIO   – Tuesdays move also added to the GDX / GLD RATIO that I pointed out last week as bullishly breaking higher. This confirms that Miners are now leading Gold, and that is viewed as bullish.

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The General Markets continued doing what they have been doing.  Oil is balancing on the 200sma, but The Oil / Energy Stocks broke down.  Wednesday is oil inventory day and that might mean that oil is about to break down  after that report ( stay tuned).  Finally we have progress in the Precious Metals sector, at least for the Miners.  Gold looks a bit weaker and Silver may have put in a dcl Tuesday, while Miners looked Bullish on day 4.  It will be interesting to see what happens today & for the rest of the week.

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Enjoy your Wednesday trading, and below I will have several ideas to think about. 🙂

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~ALEX

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AGI   –  I posted AGI  Tuesday morning as it started to move higher & broke that 200sma.  This has been a lagger, but it is now acting bullishly and could play catch up going forward.  Volume was over 5 million by the close! One of the biggest volume days over the past few months.

 

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ELYGF  – This is a bullish chart of a Mining Royalty Company that I have owned for a while as a long term buy & hold.   You can see that it tripled from the lows 8 months ago, or almost quadrupled from 10 cents 1 yr ago,  but it has been very choppy for5  months as it consolidates those gains. In a Bull Market, this could do very well over time, but shoirt term it may or may not just remain choppy.

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RGLD  – As we start this daily cycle, RGLD has returned to the 200 sma.  That is a pretty easy buy with a stop Loosely under the 200 sma, and then raise it as price moves higher.

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SA – I just happened to notice the alignment of the 50 & 200sma on Seabridge Gold, and price is above both. SA popped Tuesday and volume came in nicely (this chart is midday), so this is a low risk buy too, with a stop under the recent swing low. The RSI is above 50%.

 

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SSRM   – was pointed out as

1. an abandoned baby buy and  then

2. A cup and handle buy at the handle.

3.  Now we have a back test of the break out (Buy or add).

4.  So you can view this as another buy opportunity ( or add) on a chart that is proving itself to be bullish.

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HMY DAILY FROM LAST WEEK – HMY looks like  perfect cup & Handle at this point.  It can be bought with a pretty tight stop, especially if it breaks above the upper trend line of the wedge.

 

REVIEW: MANY TRADES WERE OFFERED HERE OVER RECENT WEEKS, SEVERAL THAT I TOOK MYSELF. IF THE MARKETS ARE DUE TO PULLBACK, WE CAN REVIEW A FEW TRADES AND YOU CAN APPLY WHAT I SAY HERE TO YOUR TRADES THAT YOU MAY STILL HAVE OPEN. BUY, SELL, or HOLD?

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BYND  -BYND was a buy near $80 as it broke that 50sma. I said that it could just run to $240, I scalp traded this.

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BYND –  After a bull flag reached the 10sma last week, BYND popped another 20%.  Yes, I would just ride this for all that it is worth, but you can  1. Take ‘partial profits’ if you want to lock in gains  2. Sell 1/2 & let the rest ride? 3. Take profits since they are good ones?  The choice is yours .

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We have discussed MANY  MJ Stocks as they based out and eventually broke out higher.  Several of the Bigger Companies like CRON, CGC, TLRY, etc. dropped on Tuesday, but they aren’t really breaking down.  I think that they are still fine. Let me show you what I am watching in this sector.

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CRON –    I own CRON and a few others as mentioned  and I’m watching it to see if these are just dropping back to the 8 ema or 10 sma area. I’d like to see the base stand as support.

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BY REQUEST:  “You recommended UBER, what do I do with it now? “

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UBER – Using this chart, UBER was a buy as it crawled under & then broke above the 50sma ($28-$29).

 

UBER – Last week I pointed it out as flagging to the 10 sma ( still acting correctly).

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UBER – After steadily advancing off of that 50 sma and flagging out to the 10sma, UBER Popped 8% Tuesday and is now $37+.  I do still think that it wants to return to prior highs, so the choice here is the same for you.

1. Sell partial?

2. ‘Sell it all’ to lock in cash in case the market pulls back?

3. Let it ride.

I think it can run higher, it hasn’t broken the 10 sma, I personally would at least keep something in this trade.

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What about SOGO as mentioned here as a BUY under the 50sma between $4.75 & $5?

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SOGO – It broke out, ran and is bull flagging. I still like it here, and I’d even add here if I wanted to. Why?…

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SOGO – AS A REMINDER, This was the Big Picture and it has good potential if the markets stay bullish.  I’d hold it as long as the markets stay bullish. This is a Chinese stock too.

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CREE was posted a buy when it crawled under the 50sma & as it breaks out above the 50 sma.  I mentioned that MU, AND, TSEM & other semiconductor trades were doing well, this lagger may catch up.  What about this trade?

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CREE –  It tok of higher day by day.  Now it is Decision time. It is pushing close to the 200sma. Sell it all? Sell 1/2 and see if it can break out? The choice is yours.  It has been a pretty good trade.

 

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CRWD JAN 2  – At $49 ish, CRWD was bullishly crawling under the 50 sma and the lower trend line, so I mentioned that it was a buy and that I bought it. Can it run back to $100?  I actually think that it could if the markets stay bullish and don’t top. Well…

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CRWD JAN 6  – By Jan 6th CRWD broke above that 50sma & that down trend line and moved to $55+.  Was it still a ‘hold’? …

 

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CRWD currently: Now it has been climbing that 8 ema faithfully, so you could just place a stop under the 10 sma. If the Markets are going to pull back,this could dip down to that 50sma, but if the markets melt up it could just run.  With  CRWD now trading at $62+, it is decision time here too.  Sell a partial?  Just cash out for profits?  Let it ride with a stop & take your chances/  The choice is yours  (I sold mine to enter an MJ Stock last week).

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WORK:  This was another trade mentioned 2+ weeks ago.  I actually took this trade too, but it has been crawling along the 50sma, so I sold it over a week ago.  It still looks good, but it just needs to break higher.  IT IS ON MY WATCH LIST, especially if the markets pull back & start another run.

NEW TRADE:

PTON – DO YOU REMEMBER THAT COMMERCIAL ABOUT “THAT EXERCISE BIKE AS A CHRISTMAS GIFT” ? Well, it did crash down to $26 after the backlash surrounding that commercial, but it is now in recovery mode. Sales were probably pretty good from all of that advertising and I think PTON is heading back to the recent highs, and possibly more.