Tuesday Dec 3rd
SPX – Day 41 and I have been discussing that we are due for a pull back into a dcl. It seems to have started. Personally I am not shorting the market, but this is where maybe a quick scalp trade ‘short’ could be placed. I would say that it is possible for this to sell off for another week or 2 ( maybe 5+ days) and it may get to the 50sma. See the chart.
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VIX – When the Volatility pops this late in a daily cycle, its a pretty good sign that the markets will have follow through to the downside. The Vix could run to the red line overhead, but in the past that only took 3 days like we saw on Monday.
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SOXS ( Short semi-conductors) – I like SOX & SQQQ for shorting because they seem to move quicker. Since the markets could drop for another week, this actually may only get to the 50 sma area. It would have been best to jump in on Monday.
AAPL – This isn’t ‘Ugly’ by any means, but it does look like a double top, and a short candidate. This could work its way down to the 50 sma. It made a slightly higher high while the MACD dropped & opened up. This leader and others helps us to see that the markets may finally be ready for that pull back with follow through.
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LABU – Since LABU dropped & has an open gap near the 200sma, LABD may be good entry for a quick trade. I will say that the Biotech / Pharma sector has been HOT lately- surprising to the upside, so it may just be best to wait for a dip and buy the dip/ reversal.
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WTIC – Oil is just choppy and directionless so I have not been trading it lately. It chopped sideways for the whole month of November.
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GOLD – Gold is interesting because the recent lows have not been broken and Monday was day 13 ( dcl – possible ICL in place). A push above the trend line or day 6 highs would seem unlikely if an ICL is still ahead. It seems like we should know sometime this week whether the next move is up or down into an ICL.
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GDX #1 – And this looks really clear. If the GDX breaks the 50 sma, that would be viewed as Bullish since it failed on the last 4 attempts.
– At this point, it doesn’t seem like a break out would become a false break out, because it would cause a new high above the November peak.
– This is also now trading in a tighter range of lows & highs, so being Long or Short has exit parameters close by.
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GDX #2 – Could it continue to chop sideways and further frustrate Bulls & Bears? Unfortunately Yes, as drawn here. It could even have a false break down to an ICL breaking the 200sma & then reverse higher, but at least we’d know that that is the buy. Remember how choppy that MAY 2019 ICL was, so it could happen again.
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GDX – This is what we could see if the 50 sma is overcome now or later. It may start as a break out & back test, but I wouldn’t wait for a back test to buy or add, just in case it never dips back down. I have personally already bought the lows ( DCL?) of this chop with a stop.
The current set up of GDX & GDXJ do look very bullish, but you know how tricky these markets can be. I have been pointing out the bullishness of many Miners, so I will do that again below
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FSM – The FSM was able to push above the 200sma, so I captured this in the morning. It closed a bit lower but volume was good, so FSM may be trying to break out here and could make a run to recent highs ( and beyond eventually). $3.30 to $4.40 are good gains.
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NSRPF Midday – I watched NSRPF drop to the 8 ema at $2.40 Friday and recover. Then I saw it do that again Monday, so I posted this as a reversal going green and possible buy. It may not drop lower. By the close…
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NSRPF CLOSE– NSRPF ran from $2.43 to $2.77.
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NSRPF WEEKLY – And don’t forget the Big Picture that I pointed out last week! A run from $2.50 to prior highs at $7 wouldn’t be bad, right? 🙂 It could happen over time.
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HL – Hecla has been holding up nicely and broke to new highs again. These Silver stocks that had earnings that were favorable are still seeing dips, but they are also being bought up.
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SVM – SVM is still at the recent highs, and so is PAAS.
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SSRM – These Silver stocks are NOT waiting for Silver. Now SSRM broke out Monday on its way to $17+. Then, just like HL & PAAS, it will probably stall briefly, break out, and keep running.
AG – So AG may break out Tuesday from this flat topped wedge. It has a series of higher lows and should be a buy here anyway, because…
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AG BIG PICTURE: I ALREADY POINTED THIS OUT LAST WEEK AS A BOX that could be bought now, bought on a drop, or bought on a pop. A starter position seems like a good idea.
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AUY – AUY, IAG, BTG, NG, etc have also been pointed out as nice multi-month consolidations. I don’t love the volume and I’d hate to see a sell off drop it to the 200sma, but a small starter position may work out until we get clarification from the GDX & GDXJ. Or if you are more conservative, you can wait for a break out & just start buying these as they break out for a run.
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We are seeing the General Markets finally dip down and will look for a swing low after a while to determine when the next dcl is in place.
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Oil remains Choppy, and
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The Precious Metals Sector looks ready to finally head in one direction or the other. Individual Miners are making it look bullish, as though it will break higher, as seen in the past several reports. I think we will know by the end of this week, since GDX seems to be pinching between the recent lows and the 50 sma again. Time will tell.
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Have a good Tuesday trading day!
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~ALEX
