November 29 – Only A 1/2 Day Of Trading
There has not been a lot of change in the General Markets since the last report, so this report will mainly cover The Precious Metals sector, Biotech, and a brief thought on the MJ Sectors progress too ( and it will open up some clean space in the live chat / trading area too) 🙂
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GOLD – After putting in a low 11 trading days ago (Yellow Arrow) Gold has churned sideways but still has not broken those lows. Let’s look at a chart that was in Tuesdays report…
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FROM TUESDAYS REPORT WITH GOLD ON DAY 10. A break of the 50 sma seems VERY BULLISH, but it didn’t even get 1/2 way up to that price point. That means that this is weak or just building energy to break higher. Time will tell….
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GOLD – It would be Normal to get a drop & back test of that 200 sma. Gold is about $60 above the 200 sma, so is that too far to drop? Not at all. Realistically …
GOLD – Gold has done these types of drops in this consolidation already, so it definitely can happen. IT also is not a big deal if that happens at this point. That would be a great buying opportunity likely representing the ICL, if the last low was not the ICL.
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GOLD COULD STAY CHOPPY – Miners have remained strong, holding up well in their consolidations, so Gold could spend another week going sideways , allowing that 200sma to rise up a bit higher too. Here I have drawn:
1. Gold chopping sideways
2. The 200 sma continues to rise toward price
3. Eventually we’d see a quick flash drop (possibly a ‘shake out’) below that 200sma & a lower trend line that is forming.
4. That is just a guess, but it is plausible action for a December ICL.
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WHAT I AM WATCHING FOR CLUES :
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GDX FROM TUESDAY – I was pointing out that GDX has been constantly rejected at the 50 sma. My thinking is if I see it break through that 50 sma, this wouldn’t be acting like a weaker late daily cycle – it would be stronger than recent ones and therefore that must be an ICL and a Buy, for those waiting for further confirmation.
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GDX – This chart shows us that basically GDX has been sideways for months now. This choppy action becomes frustrating for both Bulls & Bears. If that continues going forward, I found that the lower trend line, the 200sma, and the 50% Fib pullback of the last move all would eventually intersect in December at about $25.50. That is something that we can look for too, if an ICL is still ahead.
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Let’s take another look at a few Individual Miners
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AUY – This is a big Picture look at AUY, and I find AUY, IAG, BTG, and a few others looking similar. It is a healthy consolidation of that first solid run higher. The next run is often similar to that first one. You can see something similar happened in 2016, with a smaller consolidation period. Now let me show you something…
AUY – We now know the Box Consolidation that AUY is in. If you don’t mind AUY running from $3.20 to $3.80 over & over, you could buy near the lows and just hang on. To give you perspective…
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To give you perspective, if you owned 4000 shares of AUY at $3.20 , your account would be at $12,800. Then at $3.80 you’d have $15,200. So you would keep giving it back & gaining it, giving it back & gaining it – THAT is why this chop can be frustrating . Multiply that by 3 or 4 different Miners and you are gaining & losing $10,000 each month. Not easy to watch, but the good news is that these tend to break higher and we are expecting that to happen after an ICL is in place.
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IAG – IAG has chopped into a tighter formation, now reaching an APEX. It is bullish and should break higher in time.
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AKG – AKG dropped Wednesday to the 200 sma when Gold dropped, but notice how it then flipped back and closed green. Gold stayed down, but many Miners regained losses, and that is encouraging.
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TRX – TRX dropped and recovered too, closing down 1 penny. It is pushing on both the 50 & 200sma. If our ICL is in place, I would expect this to form a large bowl, and if the ICL is to be put in place in December, this will probably hold up well and chop around like it has.
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SILV – Silver Crest Metals is starting to pop from a triangle and there has been an increase in the volume on those Pops. I would have expected a tag of the 200sma like we saw last May, but that may not happen with increased buying.
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AG – Another sideways consolidation like I pointed out in AUY. Once we get a run from the ICL, $10 to $18 or more would be excellent, right?
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BARRICK BUY – I pointed this out in the last report too. Barrick is a BUY with a stop when you get a break out & a reversal like this. It can also be bought when it breaks above that 50 sma.
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Many individual Miners are holding up well in this Multi-Week / Multi-Month consolidation. They seem to be under accumulation whenever we see selling in the Metals, so they have dipped down but overall they have held up well. This is a bullish reaction in a sector that usually gets crushed when Gold drops $10 or so.
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You can also go back to Wednesdays report and see some other comments about individual Miners or other trade set ups. Many Biotech / Pharma stocks are running in an extremely strong manner. I bought SESN, SGMO, OBSV for trades, but there are many more. It is a 1/2 day of trading, I expect that it will be light trading. Enjoy your Friday & upcoming weekend!
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~ALEX
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THIS SECTION CAN BE A BIT RISKIER AT THIS POINT. JUST A FEW ADDITIONAL CHARTS & TRADE IDEAS, CONTINUED FROM TUESDAYS REPORT:
FOR TRADERS ONLY, UNTIL THESE START TRENDING
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In Tuesdays report I discussed the charts of CRSP, EDIT, NTLA. Look those up and you will see Bullish action. When they started to run, I mentioned that I was keeping an eye on XENE & SGMO. Now XENE has also burst higher, so I bought SGMO near $10 (similar Bases and company profile). See EDIT, XENE, NTLA, CRSP to see what I am thinking could happen here.
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Now I want to show you just a couple of the ridiculous runs in the Bio-Sector.
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DTIL – Wow, Really? Notice what I am looking at: It sold off like it was hated in October, and then it based & ran from $6 to $18. Notice a large pop of volume at the lows and then the rally. That is often what I look for.
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ARVN – Again: Sold off like it was hated in October, and then rallies from $14 to $38 . Notice a large pop of volume at the lows and then the rally. That is often what I look for. 🙂
CLVS- $3 to $12. Sold off, Base, and notice a large pop of volume at the lows and then the rally. That is often what I look for. 🙂
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OBSV – I did have this in the Tuesday report and I did buy this one. Notice : It has that same pattern of being sold off like it was hated, rounded out & POPPED with volume. That is what I often look for 🙂 So far it ran from $2.50 to $4.50.
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STIM: – O.K. – Unless you are a professional gambler, I cannot recommend this, 😉 B-U-T , I have obviously been tracking some of these set ups. LOOK AT OBSV above. Crash / Rounded bottom? Pop in Volume. Now look at STIM. You can watch this to see if it starts moving higher after the volume pop too. Notice :
1. Sold off like it was hated
2. Sudden POP in volume.
3. STIM Looks like OBSV ( see the chart above).
ALIM – I believe I mentioned ALIM too. It has now run from $3 to $6 , but looks like it could really go if it gets above that 50 sma. This is still a Biotech Buy to me.
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So these are NOT stocks to try to ‘go all in’ and make a ton of money, since some are very risky. They are oversold Biotech companies suddenly in favor. They possibly start with short cover and Buying popping the volume & then some are just taking off from there. In the past week I have had a list of over 30 of these, and many are really acting bullishly now. I AM WONDERING IF WE ARE GOING TO SEE THIS WITH MJ STOCKS TOO ( medical). WE HAVE THE SAME SELL OFF & VOLUME POP IN MANY. WE’LL SEE. With that, I can’t post 30+ Biotech stock charts here, so I will now list a few that are ‘Interesting’ for those that like to look up charts. I would use a 6 month chart to start and then zoom in. PLEASE BE CAREFUL.
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ENLV, SLRX, KERN (base), UMRX, ONTX ( volume pop), ALIM, ETNB – These are just a few to watch and see what happens.
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THESE WERE IN TUESDAYS REPORT & STILL A BUY NOW ( Less risky)
CALX – CALX popped with great volume and sold back down. This looks ready to run from a bull triangle, so the ‘Pop & Drop’ may be a buy opportunity , since you can now buy it near where you would place a stop. That was a nice October run. Also…
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CALX– I like the Bigger Picture potential for upside gains too. This looks less risky.
FROM TUESDAY: SENS – I have seen so many Bioteck & pharma runs that I like SENS breaking above the 50 sma after a strong sell off ( I bought it). This chart was captured was after 1/2 hr of trading, but it closed with good volume & did close above the 50sma. This also looks less risky.
LET ME SAY THIS: Some of these Biotechs will run and pull back and THEN eventually they may be a safer buy for those that like to avoid Risk.
It is the same with the MJ Stocks that I have posted…
– They sold off like they were hated
– They had high volume Pops & reversals
– they are now pulling back and some are reversing. We need follow through. If & When they establish an uptrend, I will be ready to show you the buy opportunities that are less risky. Right now I expected a pull back and said that I would look for a reversal and the start of a trend higher. Look at…
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HEXO – This may be doing what I expected
CGC – This may be doing what I expected, and so may ACRGF
ACRGF – This and several others still look good at this point.
