Friday’s Trading – Optional
This is the SPX : It has been running strong, I have recommended a stop under the 10sma since it is getting late in the daily cycle.
I do expect a dip soon into a dcl (daily Cycle low), because we are now on day 31, but that dip may just be a back test , as shown here.
Friday is Options Expiration, so price can move with a little more volatility. Today I just want to briefly focus on the Precious Metals sector. The General Markets remained above the 10 sma, and Oil remains choppy, dropped slightly and still unable to over take the 200 sma. So on to the Precious Metals…
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On Thursday, Gold, Silver, and the Miners climbed out of what could be a Daily Cycle Low. We have an unconfirmed swing low in Gold & Silver, but it is still possible that we can still get this kind of a quick slam down shown on the GDXJ chart. We just want to be aware of that. That would simply extend this daily cycles count by a few days . Now let’s see what we have after Thursdays trading…
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GOLD – Gold moved up toward the 10sma, but has not yet confirmed a DCL by closing above that 10sma. Gold is at resistance and this could be a bear flag, so we’ll just keep stops in place.
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SILVER -Silver looks the same as gold. Dead cat bounce, bear flag? Or dcl? We’ll need more time to know.
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GDX – GDX did close slightly above the 10sma, and it still looks like a triangle break out & back test. We really want to see some follow through above that 50 sma to get comfortable being long. The good news? Several of the stocks that had a similar triangle pattern have formed a cup, I will show you one next…
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PAAS similar triangle pattern to GDX – So this slow progress could be what we will see out of GDX, rather than further downside. PAAS, SVM, and a few others also seemed to back test the triangle before heading higher.
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GDXJ – And GDXJ has formed a similar triangle set up, back test, and also slightly closed above the 10sma. It now pushes on the 50 sma.
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So things are S-L-O-W-L-Y progressing, and we’ll have to see what happens on Friday, options Expiration. After showing the PAAS chart and the bullish progress that it made from a triangle break & back test, we are encouraged. Now, however, I still have to show the dreaded possibility of that idea that we could face another drop ahead.
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The Dreaded reminder #1 : GOLD – After we get a Swing Low, we bought with the hope that it may also be an ICL. There is a chance that it will form as Left Translated, and roll over by day 5 or so into a final daily cycle- so we have to keep that in the back of our minds.
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This is also an example of that dcl forming, getting a bounce, & then drop into a final ICL drop as it actually happened in 2018.
– After a flush sell off into August, we got a swing low and a bounce that could have been an ICL. Gold actually DID Bottom there, but look at GDX.
– GDX peaked on day 8 and rolled over for a final daily cycle. That daily cycle was very short, but frustrating when it happened.
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Today is Friday, the last trading day of the week. I am going to post several good looking Miners charts below, and while some traders here may wish to do a starter position, others may want to wait & see if Gold & Silver can gain their 10sma or not. We do not have a confirmed DCL or ICL in Gold. The choice is yours.
Enjoy your Friday trading & the upcoming weekend!
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~ALEX
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AKG – AKG found support at the 200 sma, so if you wanted to buy this reversal, you can use a stop. They released earnings last week (Nov 7th).
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AUY – I posted AUY as a BOX PATTERN. This reversal was a buy…
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AUY – AUY has had nice volume as it pushed over the 50 sma, so I still like it here. It could break the box upside if the dcl is an ICL, and…
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AUY – I posted this back in October to show that AUY has excellent potential once it does break out higher.
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AXU was moving higher Thursday, and I do think that it has great potential. Look at that last run from the ICL. It almost tripled, so I have been watching it. They were due to release earnings after the bell, so I waited. With AXU, you could also wait for a break above the 50 sma to buy, since even just forming a cup from here would be great.
They released earnings after the bell and AXU traded up 6 cents at $1.87. I didn’t think that the earnings report was very good, so we’ll see if this continues into Friday or not.
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AXU – This is a close up that I captured in the afternoon. The close up shows a base that it may be ready to climb out of. A quick run from $1.75 to $2.75 looks very possible, right? That is over 60% Gains! Very nice.
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EXK – I posted this chart of EXK in the live area Thursday morning, since it was starting to break above the 50sma, and volume was good for the first part of the day. It could form a cup with a run to $3.20, nice gains. And I also…
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EXK – I also posted this chart in the main report Thursday to discuss the potential on some of these Silver stocks. In 2016, EXK ran from $1 to $6, and those are GREAT GAINS. The Run from 2008 to 2011 went from $1 to $13. I said, “Imagine what 10,000 shares under $1 would have given you.” The potential going forward is great.
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NG – Nova Gold also started to perk up this week, crossing back above the 50sma. This also looks like a large ‘Pan’ or cup formation. As you can see on the left side of the chart, the last ICL run was great, and I would expect the next one to be great too after such a controlled consolidation.
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SIDENOTE:
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VSLR – I got stopped out of my VSLR. VSLR bullishly popped after earnings but then dropped back to the 200sma. I did not notice that apparently VSLR has a reputation for losing the 200sma by 30-50 cents and regaining it. That is exactly what it did here. It may be a buy if it can pop above this apex, but I may just focus on Miners. A run to $9 is not out of the question if this gets going.
