Weekend Report November 2nd
I think that by now we all know where things seem to be heading here, so I want to try to be brief and to the point in our weekend review. In order to be Brief with the charts, I’ll do a quick review right now.
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Let me start by saying that many areas of the markets look Bullishly Set up, from the General Markets to the Precious metals. Steel , Copper, Aluminum stocks may be joining in, and Energy could be too. I also want to say that I definitely was expecting a deeper pull back into an ICL for the Precious Metals, but you have to pay attention to the clues along the way and be Non-Biased. You have to be flexible and accept what the markets bring to you over time. I will touch on that a bit with the charts, and as time moved forward, Miner after Miner gradually started to look more bullish, so I covered that over the past 2 or 3 weeks. Then slowly but surely, the Bullishness signs started to spread even further, so I (we) began buying early ( Pre-Fed) in anticipation of a possible bullish outlook after the FOMC MTG. We still had to be cautious heading into the Fed Mtg, because they can be very volatile, but now we can just stay positioned and use stops for protection. Some may also wish to add to positions as things continue to prove to be Bullish for the Precious metals.
With all of that being said above, I can now be brief and to the point with the charts.
SPX WEEKLY – I have repeatedly shown the channel for this 2 year consolidation, and we now see the SPX breaking out and closing at the highs last week. I have encouraged raising stops from the 200sma, to the 50sma, to the 20sma, and the markets have been making higher lows. FED JUICE may continue to push the markets higher.
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NASDAQ WEEKLY – Tech broke out & closed at the highs too.
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SOX WEEKLY – Semiconductors have been bullish and though choppy in 2019, it has been making higher lows and now higher highs.
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TRAN – The TRAN & Russell 2000 had been choppy, sideways, and really lagging. That is usually bearish, but now they look as though they may also be breaking out to run too.
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IWM – Same commentary as the TRAN.
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WTIC WEEKLY – Oil has been a very tough trade. I caught it near the lows a few times, but got stopped out from the chop with small gains or even losses. This LOOKS Bullish now, with a support at recent lows, and a down trend forming a wedge, My indicators are also really diverging now. I have no position, but this honestly looks Bullish.
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USD DAILY – Starting with the daily, the USD closed below the 200 sma and with a day 7 peak, we could be looking at a daily cycle that is about to fail & drop even lower. I expected the bounce to tag that 50sma, but it was too weak. The MACD & RSI are weak. At day 9, I would expect more downside, so …
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USD WEEKLY – So it may look like this on the weekly chart. If the USD now sells off for a few weeks/Months – This may push Precious metals higher.
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The Precious Metals sector was selling off / correcting and was due for a drop into an ICL. Before dropping as deeply as we usually see this sector drop, it seemed to be firming up, seeing accumulation, and acting bullishly over the past couple of weeks. Let’s take a look. Each chart is clickable to expand it if needed.
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GOLD WEEKLY – If that is an ICL at the lowest point of the consolidation, it is only 4-5 weeks after the peak candle, but Gold is breaking higher. The last drop into an ICL took about 10 weeks from peak to Low.
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GOLD MONTHLY – The Monthly price is ‘pausing’ or forming a possible bull flag. In past Bull Runs seen from 2008 to 2011, I noticed that some dips only had 1 red month as an ICL ( see the left side of the chart). We have one here too, so it IS possible.
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SILVER WEEKLY – Silvers weekly chart shows Silver now closing above the 10 week MA and the down trend line. This is Bullish and one of my main indicators that I use to help me to find an ICL only did a ‘Kiss’ this time? That is strong & uncommon.
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SILVER MONTHLY – In 2016, when the sell off into the lows reversed in MAY, Silver had only dipped for 1 month. We have that here too.
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GDX : GLD – Miners are leading Gold & broke from the down trend. We look for that as Bullish action in this sector. Look at the ICL in May and you’ll see that Miners broke that down trend too, an took off straight up.
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GDX WEEKLY – Read the chart.
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GDX WEEKLY – A normal ICL would give us a slightly deeper drop and I expected a possible back test of the break out, but as shown above- we closed above the 10 week ma after the Fed Mtg. That is Bullish and we did reach ICL level oversold in the lower stochastics box.
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GDXJ WEEKLY – After a choppy & difficult sell down, we are seeing a break of the down trend and a back test. I can picture this forming a cup. Please know that this can run straight up in 4 days and complete a cup, but instead I drew it showing a drop next week for those that get a bit nervous when they see a drop after entering. IT IS OK FOR MARKETS TO DROP TOO, it is often healthier than a straight up run in certain situations.
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With the GDXJ chart, I want to mention something very encouraging, especially if you feel under-invested at this point in time…
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GDXJ – We caught the entire run from May to September, and if you liked those gains, then you may love this. This run looks to JUST BE STARTING, and could even be better than that last run. Look at the chart. You have not ‘Missed this run’ by any stretch of the imagination if you didn’t buy when I did, even if you are under-invested right now. On the chart below, that run from May to September looks tiny and so far this run doesn’t even show up. Grab a saddle & ride this bull (with a stop).
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LET’s JUST TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT A FEW OF THE WEEKLY MINER CHARTS THAT WE HAVE COVERED IN RECENT WEEKS FOR FURTHER BULLISH CONFIRMATION THAT WE COULD BE STARTING THE NEXT RUN…
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AEM – I normally would have expected an ICL drop to get AEM to possibly reach that 50 week ma. Instead, it just burst higher with a good earnings release and regained the 10 week ma. This is 3 weeks of gains out of a low. Bullish.
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HL – I had been discussing HL crawling along & readying to break above the 200 day sma, and bought it early. It closed above it last week and added another 11% this week. Interesting that HL went sideways and its lows were really May & then August. This looks ready to run.
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NG OCT 24th DAILY – This was a chart that I pointed out as steady, holding up nicely, and having a Bullish MACD & RSI Set Up. It looked ready to break that 50 sma with the volume increasing. Could form a cup…
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NG WEEKLY – The Cup is being formed now, so this doesn’t ‘Feel’ like we are still dropping into an ICL, does it? Last May the lower indicator ‘kissed’, and it apparently it is just doing that now too.
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CDE – CDE has some strong volume coming in over the past 6 months. The consolidation has been quite choppy, but it closed above the 10 week ma here and a run from here could be very good, because…
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CDE – It is also riding along the 50 week MA, and has plenty of upside potential with a solid little base forming on that 50 week ma.
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EGO WEEKLY – EGO released earnings this week and Popped 11%. This had a very strong run in June to September, tripling in price. This just does not look like we have an ICL ahead anymore.
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We have Bullish set ups in various sectors of the markets, and the USD looks set up to sell off into its own ICL. I ALWAYS recommend buying an ETF or A small BASKET of Miners, and keep an eye on ‘earnings’ for your Miners if you do. Even though a few in the Miners like AUY, AEM, EGO, GSS , etc have been favorably received with large %-Pops, there have been a couple of disappointments too. It looks like the Bull has started to run again, we just need to hang on, Stay Frosty my friends, and hopefully enjoy another nice long multi week ride higher on the bull!
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As always, thanks for being here and Enjoy your weekend activities!
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~ALEX
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EXTRAS – I mentioned a few possible longer term buy & holds recently
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BE – I mentioned that when I tried to look up Boeing last week, and accidentally ran across this chart and liked the set up a lot. Well, just as a reminder, it still looks good as a weekly base set up & actually ended up 23% for the week.
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ENDP – This set up on OCT 29 was also a bullish set up and a base that could see good upside results.
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ENDP – The weekly chart after Friday shows it up only another $0.14, but it is a nice round bottom base on a weekly chart. The down trend is broken, the price rode the 10 week ma like a champ. It is a good set up, Just ALWAYS try to be aware of earnings releases.
