Tuesday October 29th

It is a Fed Week and we all know the risks.  The biggest risk is not expecting the unexpected. As you will see, the markets are up at or near all time highs.  One might wonder, “If the markets are at all time highs and everything is so Bullish and healthy, why would we need another rate cut, since we have already seen cuts recently?”  That’s a good question, so would a cut be viewed as good?  Maybe, Maybe not.  Let’s examine our markets…

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With that statement above in mind, I am just going to cover the markets as they currently are set up.  Keep in the back of your mind that if we get the rate cut, it could be viewed as Good or bad.   “Is their something wrong, that we need a rate cut at the all time highs? ” If we don’t get the rate cut, it could be viewed as ” Hmm, there’s something wrong if the fed isn’t going to help and we go back to rate hikes sooner than expected.“- My point is that no matter how these markets look now, I still think that the Fed Mtg is important to remember when trading…

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SPX – With a day 17 peak, we get closer to this becoming likely a R.T. Daily Cycle, but a long 40 day sell off could still leave this as L.T.  RIGHT NOW,  this is a bullish break to new highs.  Volumes look good ( average).

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NASDAQ –  Notice the first run out of the June ICL. The NASDAQ would gap open at times like it did on Monday, and then drop to the 10sma, so it is ok if that happens.  When we entered the trade at the dcl,  I said I would put my stop at the 200sma. Then after time I said I would raise it to the 50 sma.  I would trail a stop under the 20 sma now  ( not shown). Why?  It will follow price closer than the 50 sma,  but a bit slower than the 10sma, to allow for wiggle room to the 10sma   ( Volumes look good here too )

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SOX – If this is a flat topped triangle ‘continuation’, it could  still run very well with a target much higher.  This was a long consolidation in the big picture & we may be seeing a break out & run from here, compliments of  a little Fed Juice.    Could it back test the break out on Fed Wed?  It could, so a stop under the triangle should work here. Read the chart.

 

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XBI – I used XBI  for LABU as a buy weeks ago.  It looks good, but I’m obviously watching that 200sma as we approach the Fed Mtg.  Volumes here look a bit weak compared to the SPX, NASDAQ, etc., but the MACD is strong. It is still bullish.

 

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OIL – Oil did what Oil does.  It is breaking higher, but had a down day Monday.

 

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GOLD  –  More often than not, when I see price jump an overhead resistance or lower support & recover, like in a channel or a wedge, they often run back to the other side. READ THE CHART.  THAT makes me think that GOLD is more likely to  drop to that $1470 area as we head to the Fed.

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BULL & BEAR VIEWS for GDX

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GDX  – GDX dropped to the trend line, so it could be a back test, but if GOLD is dropping to $1470, this could return to the triangle as a false break out too.  The 50 sma held as resistance, and that is actually what we expected long ago.  The recent strength in individual Miners had be starting a few positions early, but I have mentioned the RISK at this point.  Currently the GDX & GDXJ are above their 10 sma.

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GDX with bearish thoughts from the weekend report –

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GDX  – At this point we did exactly what we did in April so far, before it dropped. We all know that The FED MTG is very influential to Miners, so I have a couple of long positions and need to pay close attention to this weeks action. The 200 sma is NOT out of the question and that is what happened last May.

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What can I say? Nothing has changed from the weekend report, but I will discuss a few additional ideas below . Enjoy your Tuesday trading!

 

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~ALEX

 

ELYGF   – Recently I showed this chart as a bullish set up that I like for the miners.  It was  forming a pan  and this company did NOT sell off  when the rest of the miners did.  Here it was under 30 cents..

ELYGF   – It actually started to run Monday and volume came in strong early in the day around 400,000, so I posted this in the live area too.

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ELYGF   – It closed with almost 700,000 volume. This may break out & run as soon as Tuesday, so this shows us that some Miners are still acting on their own & bullishly.

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IVPAF –  Here we have another bullish set up in Miners, so at this point it remains a bit mixed before the Fed Mtg Wednesday.  If we didn’t have the Fed ahead, I would have probably bought this on Monday.

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NSRPF – This is a Miner that chopped sideways for months during the last run, but it looks ready to make up for lost time. That was a strong burst out of the base, and that is a bull flag on this pull back.  So we have another miner that is acting bullishly on its own, giving confidence to the sector.

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HL – We had a down day in Miners Monday, but I posted this chart to show that it is still above support after the break out.  HL then went on to actually close up 1 penny.

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AUY  – AUY posted earnings and popped to new highs Friday. It has since dropped and may fill that gap, but I’ll be watching to see if the 50sma holds up as support.

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EQX  – This Miners remains bullishly set up too, above the 50 sma.

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HMY OCT 24   – So this was the break out ‘buy’ at the 50sma.

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HMY   – Friday saw HMY run higher & then drop as a reversal.  Monday HMY dropped to the 50 sma , and I posted 2 areas where you could use a stop if it continued lower.  Read the chart.   And then…

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HMY   – It did bounce off of the 50 sma and held support (so far). ANYTHING can happen on the Fed Day, but so far, it remained healthy.

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So Gold, Silver, and The MINERS dipped down on Monday, but many are still fairly healthy looking.  With the Fed Decision on Wednesday though, anyone long or short needs to Stay Frosty! This can go either way.

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XBI– This represented LABU as a trade & I already discussed this chart above…

 

SO I POSTED CRSP and other Biotechs that had Bullish set ups with this chart. Volume was coming in and it could run to the 50 sma…

 

It pushed against the 50sma & Volume looked good…

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CRSP – CRSP went sideways and just burst right through that 50 sma & the 200 sma.  EDIT & NTLA Popped too and look ready to continue higher. Read the chart for more ideas.

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TECH IS WORKING OUT

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FIT  – Remember this?   A drop to the 50sma is a buy, and FIT had a strong run, so we could expect another strong run higher?

 

FIT  – After a solid run from $2.80 to $4.50, I bought this dip to the 50sma expecting another run. Well, as it ran toward the 200sma, I sold it last week around $4. 50 as it approached that Sept high…

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FIT – And then it did this??   I really hope that some of you held on and didn’t follow me out. I made good gains, but this  tacked on another 30% Monday.

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AMD was mentioned as a Buy here on Oct 14 too.  My thinking was that The SOX was going to run, so watch MU, AMD, TSEM, INTC, etc , and AMD regained the 50sma.

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AMD   –  AMD is still running & I would say that it should get to the prior highs.  It may even break to new highs and keep running, if the markets like what the Fed is doing.   See also INTC, MU, TSEM, etc

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ROKU OCT 3 – Near  $100 – Buy the ROKU break out, this has good volume & was very oversold …

 

ROKU OCT – This was a 2nd opportunity to buy or add at $117 after breaking from a larger down trend

 

ROKU OCT 3 – Now we have a Bull Flag at the 50 sma and it is breaking out. Roku wants to run to that $170 area. 

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SHIPPERS are still doing well,  but they are very hard to ride:   I have mentioned stocks like SBLK, SALT, NM, SHIP, SB, etc etc 

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GLBS   – This is a long base and I have been watching this & waiting for a break higher, since I like these bases. Now let’s zoom in.

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GLBS CLOSE UP  – It started to break higher with volume, so I started a position with a stop under that 50 sma, but again, this moves A LOT.  If this simply back tests the 50sma, that is a drop from $2.58 to $2.20 in 1 day, so if that is not for you, avoid this trade.  Now…

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Now we go back to this chart to see the potential if this thing gets running. If it gets above that 200sma, it could move swiftly.

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SHIP  – Ship was a Buy under 55 cents or a break out, and I owned it.  It ran higher and I did take profit last week.  Well…

SHIP  – I re-bought it Monday morning and posted this later as it continued higher. It had strong volume and I saw some other Shippers still looking solid. Let’s zoom in now…

 

SHIP  – After riding along that 50sma for 2 weeks, it ended the day up almost 16% now at 73 cents.  These bases can be explosive, so if this dips back down like the last Pop on Oct 14, I may add again.  So far, it just kept climbing into the close.

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METALS WERE ON THE MOVE RECENTLY

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HBM  – We discussed AKS, X, HBM, TGB, FCX, CENX, ZEUS, STLD, AA,  etc. etc.  These are starting to move with follow through to the upside and if you bought them, I’d keep holding them for now.  They are also not overextended, so you could add or even start a position.

 

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WRN DAILY  – WRN had an excellent run from May to July.  It lost the 50sma, but recently climbed back toward the July highs already.  Since I don’t always like the light volume, it would be more of a buy & hold core position recommendation, and I’ll show you why.

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WRN WEEKLY  – This is definitely a big picture weekly chart of a Bullishly set up  Copper Stock.  It may or may not be ready to break higher yet, but when it does it can double or triple over time.

 

NRP   –   NRP is a natural resource company that owns, manages and leases a diversified portfolio of mineral properties in the United States, including interests in coal, industrial minerals and other natural resources.  It looks to be bottoming and reversed Monday. I HATE THE VOLUME, but I watched this run from $4 to almost $40 in 2016, so I never took it off of my list.

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MRMD    – MJ STOCKS have been mentioned as possibly bottoming, so I’ve been watching some of the smaller ones for signs if they are ready or not too. Many are popping.  MRMD is trying to break the 50sma. It closed AT the 50sma.

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MYMMF   – I watched this rise 5%, then 10%, then 20%, and boom.  SO I posted this up 67%, and it kept running to up 170% before dropping down a bit into the close.   WOW.

 

LBUY   – DO you remember LBUY last week as it popped 20%? I love these long bases , because they can get explosive ( I did not buy it though).

 

LBUY   – It is now up about 100% from when it was below that 50sma.   These MJ STocks can give good gains coming out of the lows, and especially from these long bases.

 

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EDXC – EDXC Popped & ran too.  Now it can pull back to the 10 sma or even the 50 sma as a back test and still be fine as long as it reverses there and that 50sma holds price as support.